California's Drought Situation Has Improved Dramatically

[Wapasha]

Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound

Now weather is political.

Back around 2008 or so, we were in the middle of "the pause," a cooling period. And when people pointed out this very cool summer and winter temps to the AGW enthusiasts, they said we were confusing weather with climate. Their mantra back then was "weather is not climate." But as soon as the usual summer heat wave would arrive, the same people were claiming the hot summer temps were more proof of global warming. They flipped the mantra, and suddenly, "weather was climate." We see it all the time. A cool summer and cold winter, they zip their lips. But as soon as there is a summer heat wave, now it's proof of global warming.

[Wapasha]

Originally Posted by SAN_Man

Actually a typical La Niña winter is usually warm and dry in California and the rest of the southwest. El Niño winters are usually the wet years. That's what's weird with this winter, it's a La Niña and going into the rainy season, nearly all of this excess precipitation wasn't expected by the "climate experts".

Here is an article from January 26, 2018. They speak to there 2016 weather predictions, knowing that a La Nina was going to be active in 2017-2018

Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?

Flashback to 2016……………………………..

You can read exactly what we were thinking about ENSO right before the 2016-2017 winter here: (1). The winter outlook for California, meanwhile, did not forecast a slam dunk for any outcome: it showed an increased chance of drier conditions in southern California and an equal chance of above, below or normal precipitation in northern California. It was a reasonable outlook given that La Niña suggests drier conditions in southern California

That’s not how things, played out, though. California wasn’t just wetter than normal; it had its third-wettest year on record!

These climate predictions are guesses, and nothing else. ENSO is a major driver of world climate and weather, and science does not understand it. So how can they claim to make predictions on weather or climate?

Scientists still do not understand how the ENSO system works. We cannot predict them, we just observe the weather and ocean currents as they present themselves, and we make projections. As we have seen with the past couple of La Nina, science is incapable of predicting the weather.

This is why people need to stop pretending science models are settled science; as if predictions were fact.

[SAN_Man]

Originally Posted by Wapasha

Here is an article from January 26, 2018. They speak to there 2016 weather predictions, knowing that a La Nina was going to be active in 2017-2018

Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?

Flashback to 2016……………………………..

You can read exactly what we were thinking about ENSO right before the 2016-2017 winter here: (1). The winter outlook for California, meanwhile, did not forecast a slam dunk for any outcome: it showed an increased chance of drier conditions in southern California and an equal chance of above, below or normal precipitation in northern California. It was a reasonable outlook given that La Niña suggests drier conditions in southern California

That’s not how things, played out, though. California wasn’t just wetter than normal; it had its third-wettest year on record!

These climate predictions are guesses, and nothing else. ENSO is a major driver of world climate and weather, and science does not understand it. So how can they claim to make predictions on weather or climate?

Scientists still do not understand how the ENSO system works. We cannot predict them, we just observe the weather and ocean currents as they present themselves, and we make projections. As we have seen with the past couple of La Nina, science is incapable of predicting the weather.

This is why people need to stop pretending science models are settled science; as if predictions were fact.

Yep and here's an article from the LA Times back in September, 2022, warning of a dry winter coming, LOL.

A rare third year of La Niña is on deck for California, forecasters say
BY HAYLEY SMITH
SEPT. 13, 2022

Originally Posted by LA Times Article

Californians should brace for another year of La Niña as the stubborn climate pattern in the tropical Pacific is expected to persist for a third consecutive year, forecasters say.

The latest outlook, published Thursday by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, has increased the chances of La Niña sticking around through November to 91%, a near certainty. The pattern may also linger into winter, with an 80% chance of La Niña from November to January and a 54% chance from January to March.

-----

Originally Posted by LA Times Article

In the southwestern United States, La Niña seasons tend to be drier, which could spell trouble for the drought-ravaged region.“It doesn’t mean for sure, 100% it’s going to be dry, but it does tilt the odds toward dry,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “If you had been wet for a while now, drier than average wouldn’t matter — but it becomes very significant this year because of the drought that’s already in place. Another dry winter is certainly not going to be good news for California.”

^LOL

Originally Posted by LA Times Article

The effects of the pattern aren’t limited to the Southwest. La Niñas are known to result in wetter, snowier conditions in parts of the northern U.S., more frequent tornadoes in the south-central U.S. and increased Atlantic hurricane season activity.

^LOL

Originally Posted by LA Times

On the U.S. West Coast, La Niña can also reduce the number of atmospheric rivers, which could be worrisome in California, which receives much of its precipitation in the winter. A dry season this year forced officials to slash allocations from the State Water Project to just 5%.

^LOL

Originally Posted by LA Times Article

Halpert said the relationship between human-caused climate change and La Niña remains a topic of interest.

“La Niña and El Niño have existed for hundreds, thousands, of years we think, so it’s not like climate change has any manifestation on the actual phenomena,” he said. “A more relevant question is, is climate change changing the frequency of the two events, and to be honest, that’s really still an open research question.”

^LOL

Originally Posted by LA Times Article

And while La Niña only tends to have a slight impact on temperatures in Southern California, a separate climate outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center shows a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. through November.

California has a roughly 33% to 50% chance of being warmer than average, the outlook indicates. Though it does not include temperature predictions for December and into next year, a warm La Niña winter could affect the timing and availability of water in the state, as warmer temperatures can make more precipitation fall as rain instead of snow.

^LOL

[AKA Bubbleup]

Originally Posted by lookingaround12345

They need huge underground storage tanks. The reservoirs cause too much evaporation because of the surface area. Ten years of big snow pack can be gone next year.

We already have natural underground aquifers. Ever heard of ground water? The crazy thing about H2O is that every molecule of it that exists on the planet, be it in the form of ice, water, or vapor, predates our solar system. Thanks to the atmosphere, fluctuations of H2O out, if any are insignificant.

Drought is a case of defining an area to say there is less water here in relation to some fixed prior measurement. By no means is this prior measurement the definitive measurement, is just an historical sample that is compared to other points in time. The water is not disappearing or gone, it's just somewhere else.

Underground tanks in significance would isolate the stored water from the ice, liquid water, vapor equilibrium of the planet's ecosystem which could probably create more issues than we currently experience. That said, we do have current and future challenges with maintaining an acceptable supply to usable water for people, agriculture, livestock, and industry, but that has more to do with pollution than drought.

[ottomobeale]

Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133

I heard CA was inundated with snow and rain these past few weeks.

I guess that is the cycle. Long periods of draughts, and massive forest fires. Then gallons of rain and snow dumped suddenly.

Places got 10 FEET of snow in a week.