Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack
My fault is with the leaders over the past couple of years. They relied too much on financials and construction (kind of like Detroit relying on the auto industry). Also, manufacturing and textiles never came back here......
No vision and look where we are....
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Jack, I agree with you. And while relying on new construction - and issuing permits to not only local builders but every national company out there - municipalities let their greed for an immediate payoff (revenue) cloud their judgement when it comes to sound fiscal planning.
If planners here had been thinking clearly (and towards the future) they would have required that these national builders, who bought up hundreds of acres of land at a time, would be required to deed off land for new schools and build in prescribed greenways. Sewer tap fees should have been higher, too.
Instead, we have struggled w/ building schools to accommodate all the new families who have moved into this region. And, our water/sewer systems have been strained.
I see it as a potential case study in how NOT to manage regional growth. So I totally see your point - and agree with you.
As far as textiles and furniture manufacturing . . . I don't see how city leaders could have done much to stem the demise of those industries here. Perhaps changing some tax structure for those manufacturers would have helped . . . but those decisions to outsource were made at the CEO/board level of these companies, when federal laws were changed that made it easy for plant owners to make more money off outsourcing than by manufacturing products here in NC/USA.
Which brings us back to housing and the cost of housing. Using US Census Bureau data, and adjusting the median home values to year 2000 dollars, we come up with $119,600 as the median home value for year 2000, as compared to $101,100 (1990) and $ 93,000 (1980).
For year 2000, here in NC, the median home price: $108,000. So in year 2000, the NC median price and the national median home prices are very comparable.
Historical Census of Housing Tables - Home Values
In 2000, the median price of homes in Charlotte's MSA was $134,400, significantly higher than NC's median figure. I can't find a source that agrees on NC's median home price for 2005. However, for Q2 2006, the Charlotte metro (MSA) median home price: $191,400. This is an increase of about
40% in the median house price in the Charlotte MSA in a six year period.
USATODAY.com
The problem w/ finding accurate figures is that I cannot get primary data pulled up from the census reports for median house prices in CLT's MSA for 2008 and 2009. And every media report (including info f/ our own economic council here) gives different figures -some w/ wide variations. My analysis, looking at averages, would be that in Q3 of 2007 into early 08, median home values jumped considerably, to a figure somewhere around $225,000 and are now back down to around $198,000.
Some analysts predict another 6% drop by Q1 of 2010 . . . but again, what figure are they working off for today's median home value? If my estimate is correct and we are at $198,000, a 6% drop would be about $186,000, putting this region's median home value at figures close to pre-2006 figures.
When one considers the big jump in home prices here in 2007, I don't think that falling prices to pre-2006 levels are that astounding. After all, by 2010, that is a mere four years. So any gains since mid to late 2005 would be wiped out and if a person bought a house prior to the price surges wh/ occurred sometime after 2005, then they ought to be okay w/ home values. The problem comes in w/ anyone who bought at the inflated prices which occurred somewhere in mid 2006 into 2007. In addition, anyone who refinanced and took money out of their homes - or bought after 2006 and put little or no money down - could be upside down on a mortgage.
Yes, housing prices have fallen and yes, they will fall more. But for the majority of people who have bought in this region, unless they took out a wacked out loan and put themselves in a vulnerable position (no $$ down, 5% down, re-fi, etc) most people would break even
if they have to sell their homes and have owned them for four or more years.
Now, breaking even is not what people want to hear. They want to walk away from the table w/ a check when they sell their houses. And it is demoralizing to hear that many of us have NO EQUITY in our homes. But as far as I am concerned, it could be a whole lot worse as far as values.
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