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Old 03-17-2020, 07:05 AM
 
1,068 posts, read 917,737 times
Reputation: 1875

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Bing has an interactive covid map now: https://www.bing.com/covid

- The mortality rate is MUCH lower than indicated. There are likely so many people with no symptoms (Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Idris Elba, etc.) and mild symptoms likely confused with cold or flu (Tom Hanks / Rita Wilson, etc.) that the active cases are vastly under reported. Even in Italy it's mostly elderly or a handful of people in 30s and 40s with underlying health issues like cancer.

- This is supposedly a VERY contagious virus. Yet only 4,700 cases in the US. Italy did nothing to stop the virus for a while and has 25,000 cases (due to elderly population). Mexico is currently doing absolutely nothing and has 49 cases (and they started getting them in late Feb like US). I understand the virus has a delayed response so we'll see what end of March numbers look like but the spread should be much higher...or its simply people have it and don't know and are fine.

- My point in all this being...I understand the 2-3 week lock down to "flatten" the contagious curve and spread out the cases so hospitals aren't overwhelmed (we can't build a hospital in 10 days like China)...but this will simply slow and not stop the spread and we need to gradually go back to life as normal April 1. Herd immunization is working. Or are we going to do this now every time there's Swine, H1N1, SARS, etc.? The cases and mortality rates do not warrant continued lock downs past 4/1 or 4/15 max. Life must go on...

- I hope the elderly and susceptible make it through this...Hats off to the medical workers dealing with all this...and hope all other workers can get back to work soon.

 
Old 03-17-2020, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
4,655 posts, read 3,264,125 times
Reputation: 3922
dtcbnd03, and also "hats off to you" for sharing; in particular your last line. Thank you for your well wishings on both the unfortunate people that have been affected, and those working hard and giving their all to help treat it!
 
Old 03-17-2020, 08:25 AM
 
61 posts, read 42,422 times
Reputation: 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtcbnd03 View Post
Bing has an interactive covid map now: https://www.bing.com/covid

- The mortality rate is MUCH lower than indicated. There are likely so many people with no symptoms (Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Idris Elba, etc.) and mild symptoms likely confused with cold or flu (Tom Hanks / Rita Wilson, etc.) that the active cases are vastly under reported. Even in Italy it's mostly elderly or a handful of people in 30s and 40s with underlying health issues like cancer.

- This is supposedly a VERY contagious virus. Yet only 4,700 cases in the US. Italy did nothing to stop the virus for a while and has 25,000 cases (due to elderly population). Mexico is currently doing absolutely nothing and has 49 cases (and they started getting them in late Feb like US). I understand the virus has a delayed response so we'll see what end of March numbers look like but the spread should be much higher...or its simply people have it and don't know and are fine.

- My point in all this being...I understand the 2-3 week lock down to "flatten" the contagious curve and spread out the cases so hospitals aren't overwhelmed (we can't build a hospital in 10 days like China)...but this will simply slow and not stop the spread and we need to gradually go back to life as normal April 1. Herd immunization is working. Or are we going to do this now every time there's Swine, H1N1, SARS, etc.? The cases and mortality rates do not warrant continued lock downs past 4/1 or 4/15 max. Life must go on...

- I hope the elderly and susceptible make it through this...Hats off to the medical workers dealing with all this...and hope all other workers can get back to work soon.
I do appreciate this positive post.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 08:34 AM
 
2,329 posts, read 6,636,243 times
Reputation: 1812
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtcbnd03 View Post

- My point in all this being...I understand the 2-3 week lock down to "flatten" the contagious curve and spread out the cases so hospitals aren't overwhelmed (we can't build a hospital in 10 days like China)...but this will simply slow and not stop the spread and we need to gradually go back to life as normal April 1. Herd immunization is working. Or are we going to do this now every time there's Swine, H1N1, SARS, etc.? The cases and mortality rates do not warrant continued lock downs past 4/1 or 4/15 max. Life must go on...
sorry but youre delusional. thats not how this works. herd immunity wont happen until almost everyone on earth has contracted the virus and tens of millions have died as a result, over a course of likely several years. we will have a vaccine sooner than that, but certainly not in a couple months time.

maybe its time society starts treating the potential for pandemics seriously, scientists have been warning of something like this for decades. but no one cares until its actually happening and too late.

Last edited by via chicago; 03-17-2020 at 08:53 AM..
 
Old 03-17-2020, 08:38 AM
 
2,561 posts, read 2,184,453 times
Reputation: 1672
Quote:
Originally Posted by via chicago View Post
sorry but youre delusional. thats not how this works. herd immunity wont happen until almost everyone on earth has contracted the virus and tens of millions have died as a result, over a course of likely several years.
Right. That's why for the more common anti-vax trend, experts say to generally limit it to religious aversion or allergic reaction, etc, because 95% or so being vaccinated can create herd immunity.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 08:59 AM
 
2,329 posts, read 6,636,243 times
Reputation: 1812
also, we're still not doing enough. Cuomo just said the current quarantine levels in nyc (closed schools, restaurants, etc.) is not enough to sustain hospital levels. i assume its not much of a different picture in chicago, or at least will be similar soon.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 09:04 AM
 
Location: Sweet Home Chicago!
6,721 posts, read 6,486,942 times
Reputation: 9915
Quote:
Originally Posted by via chicago View Post
also, we're still not doing enough. Cuomo just said the current quarantine levels in nyc (closed schools, restaurants, etc.) is not enough to sustain hospital levels. i assume its not much of a different picture in chicago, or at least will be similar soon.
We only have 93 cases in Illinois. NY is showing 669. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

or based on the bing map listed above by dtcbnd03, Illinois = 103 vs. NY = 945. https://www.bing.com/covid

Seems like we're in pretty good shape in Illinois.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 09:17 AM
 
1,068 posts, read 917,737 times
Reputation: 1875
Quote:
Originally Posted by via chicago View Post
sorry but youre delusional. thats not how this works. herd immunity wont happen until almost everyone on earth has contracted the virus and tens of millions have died as a result, over a course of likely several years. we will have a vaccine sooner than that, but certainly not in a couple months time.

maybe its time society starts treating the potential for pandemics seriously, scientists have been warning of something like this for decades. but no one cares until its actually happening and too late.
Ebola is a pandemic with a fatality rate up to 90%.

Coronavirus is not when young/healthy show zero to cold/flu like symptoms and recover and the mortality rate is less than 1%. Unfortunately for the elderly the flu season comes and takes a large number every year.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 09:20 AM
 
2,329 posts, read 6,636,243 times
Reputation: 1812
first of all, we're barely testing as it is. you can be assured there are thousands of unconfirmed cases all around us. you still had people not taking this seriously up until a couple days ago (and some are still in denial). beyond that, even if NY is a week ahead of us in the numbers, at the rate this disease spreads we will be right up there in no time. give it til the weekend. of course by that point NY will be in even worse shape.
 
Old 03-17-2020, 09:23 AM
 
2,329 posts, read 6,636,243 times
Reputation: 1812
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtcbnd03 View Post
Ebola is a pandemic with a fatality rate up to 90%.

Coronavirus is not when young/healthy show zero to cold/flu like symptoms and recover and the mortality rate is less than 1%. Unfortunately for the elderly the flu season comes and takes a large number every year.
https://www.propublica.org/article/t...-it-to-the-flu
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