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I'm thinking that Jeff Bezos just got a HELUVA lot of free publicity. Do I think drones wil be practical for parcel delivery anytime in the near future? I have to laugh when reading about how we're going to have driverless vehicles in less than 10 years. During the snow storm on 12/06/13, I cleared the snow off of the sensor for my big truck's interactive cruise control/collision avoidance system located on the front bumper. Five miles up I-75, the sensor was snow-covered and inop AGAIN. We've also returned to the fender mirrors to replace the cosmic side view cameras we once had...
This is sort of an absurd neo-Luddite argument. Perhaps you'd like to see us go back to the Pony Express?
Anyway, Drones are not going to account for much delivery anytime soon...and if they did it would mean a ton of jobs in designing, coding, manufacturing, marketing, operating and maintaining the drones.
Really? Do you honestly believe a new flying machine is going to be completely infallible and never malfunction?
And what does the Pony Express have to do with this. The current package and mail delivery system is adequate.
We've already seen how Obamacare has been rolled out while not only being far from perfect but is going to lead to health issues due to the incompetent handling of this over bloated bureaucratic department. The near Billion Dollar website boondoggle is proof of that. Do you honestly believe that unmanned drones flying all over the place will be innocuous to the point that they won't be a distraction to people let alone suddenly stop flying at inopportune times and drop on people or buildings?
There's a big difference between these stupid things and actual aircraft. There is likely to be a far greater number of these things flying around per capita than real, piloted aircraft. Thus, the risks of damage to property and life will increase accordingly.
Location: A voice of truth, shouted down by fools.
1,086 posts, read 2,702,997 times
Reputation: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by Komeht
This is sort of an absurd neo-Luddite argument. Perhaps you'd like to see us go back to the Pony Express?
Anyway, Drones are not going to account for much delivery anytime soon...and if they did it would mean a ton of jobs in designing, coding, manufacturing, marketing, operating and maintaining the drones.
The "Luddite" tag keeps popping up in a discussion of this news item and it's a really tiresome ad hominem.
I'm a geek - as wired and connected as anyone here. I also believe that drones as a technology are incompatible with the use that Amazon is suggesting: close quarters flying, controlled entirely by software with no human in control, in busy, crowded metropolitan areas.
That style of flying -in a city, between buildings or houses, with utility lines and towers, etc. would have a very high accident rate even with a skilled and trained human operator, which would be utterly uneconomical considering the scale that the drone fleet would have to be. So these things HAVE!!! to be entirely self piloted. Artificial intelligence is not there yet.
This is not even assuming malfunctions and software errors.
We don't even have self piloted cars on roads yet. Which is a FAR simpler problem to solve - 2D movement vs. 3D movement. Every self piloted car proposal assumes drive by wire - the car follows transponders along the road.
This discussion is at the level of - why in the frig are we even talking about it? The "Luddite" accusing crowd is silly. This is vaporware. Not going to happen. I believe that anyone saying with absolute certainty that this will happen doesn't understand the physical reality of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crew Chief
I'm thinking that Jeff Bezos just got a HELUVA lot of free publicity.
YES! Echoes my earlier statement. Yes. It's all about Amazon establishing mind share in some new area, and even if the concept is impractical, the press and a lot of over eager geeks are buying it.
Really? Do you honestly believe a new flying machine is going to be completely infallible and never malfunction?
And what does the Pony Express have to do with this. The current package and mail delivery system is adequate.
We've already seen how Obamacare has been rolled out while not only being far from perfect but is going to lead to health issues due to the incompetent handling of this over bloated bureaucratic department. The near Billion Dollar website boondoggle is proof of that. Do you honestly believe that unmanned drones flying all over the place will be innocuous to the point that they won't be a distraction to people let alone suddenly stop flying at inopportune times and drop on people or buildings?
There's a big difference between these stupid things and actual aircraft. There is likely to be a far greater number of these things flying around per capita than real, piloted aircraft. Thus, the risks of damage to property and life will increase accordingly.
"Really? Do you honestly believe a new flying machine is going to be completely infallible and never malfunction?"
I never said anything of the sort - go back and read the post.
"And what does the Pony Express have to do with this. The current package and mail delivery system is adequate."
It was a response to the absurd luddite argument against progress you put forward.
"We've already seen how Obamacare has been rolled out while not only being far from perfect but is going to lead to health issues due to the incompetent handling of this over bloated bureaucratic department. The near Billion Dollar website boondoggle is proof of that. Do you honestly believe that unmanned drones flying all over the place will be innocuous to the point that they won't be a distraction to people let alone suddenly stop flying at inopportune times and drop on people or buildings?"
My response to you was entirely confined to the luddite argument you put forward - that advances will put people out of work.
The "Luddite" tag keeps popping up in a discussion of this news item and it's a really tiresome ad hominem.
I'm a geek - as wired and connected as anyone here. I also believe that drones as a technology are incompatible with the use that Amazon is suggesting: close quarters flying, controlled entirely by software with no human in control, in busy, crowded metropolitan areas.
That style of flying -in a city, between buildings or houses, with utility lines and towers, etc. would have a very high accident rate even with a skilled and trained human operator, which would be utterly uneconomical considering the scale that the drone fleet would have to be. So these things HAVE!!! to be entirely self piloted. Artificial intelligence is not there yet.
This is not even assuming malfunctions and software errors.
We don't even have self piloted cars on roads yet. Which is a FAR simpler problem to solve - 2D movement vs. 3D movement. Every self piloted car proposal assumes drive by wire - the car follows transponders along the road.
This discussion is at the level of - why in the frig are we even talking about it? The "Luddite" accusing crowd is silly. This is vaporware. Not going to happen. I believe that anyone saying with absolute certainty that this will happen doesn't understand the physical reality of it.
YES! Echoes my earlier statement. Yes. It's all about Amazon establishing mind share in some new area, and even if the concept is impractical, the press and a lot of over eager geeks are buying it.
You people really need to get an education.
Luddites were 19th century textile workers who protested again labor saving technology making those workers obsolete.
My use of "neo-luddite" was in direct response to this statement:
"Just another means of rendering American workers as obsolete."
I believe that my use of the term was 100% accurate.
... It's all about Amazon establishing mind share in some new area, and even if the concept is impractical, the press and a lot of over eager geeks are buying it.
Very possibly. The thing that really stood out for me in Bezos' 60 Minutes interview was the patience and willingness he expressed to plan over a much longer time span than is typical anymore in our culture. When one combines that attitude with the resources he obviously has for technological innovation...well, I don't know where he'll go, I just figure he'll get there eventually.
Oh. That, and the stress he put on developing trust on the part of his customers. Hubby and I have a Prime account, and so if I want to buy much of anything at all that I think I may have to hunt around to find in a bricks and mortar store, I just buy it through Amazon. I have yet to have any problem whatsoever with an order. They deliver in more ways than one.
Location: A voice of truth, shouted down by fools.
1,086 posts, read 2,702,997 times
Reputation: 937
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sarah Perry
Oh. That, and the stress he put on developing trust on the part of his customers. Hubby and I have a Prime account, and so if I want to buy much of anything at all that I think I may have to hunt around to find in a bricks and mortar store, I just buy it through Amazon. I have yet to have any problem whatsoever with an order. They deliver in more ways than one.
I'm infinitely suspicious of any "infallible" regime. General Motors used to be considered as benevolent and stable as the US government.
I also have the shipping boxes with swoopy slashes littering the house and I have Amazon Prime. I love Amazon. But in their position they can easily abuse the public trust.
Amazon isn't perfect. I once returned software (a tax preparation package) and they wanted to refund 50% as their standard fixed policy across all products. I pointed out the vendor's 60 day 100% refund policy printed right on the package. The girl grudgingly gave me a 100% refund. I didn't like or appreciate that they morph the terms of sale to what suits them. What I read into that episode is that they can be arrogant even when they're wrong.
And I've gotten some books from Amazon that didn't have any padding or specific packaging in the box at all - heavy books rattling around in a large box that causes the corners to get trashed. I've sent their books back when they cheap out on packing.
My point is, Amazon isn't infallible and we must not extend 100% trust to them.
I *could* see drone technology used the way they want, but it would have to be a lot more site specific. IE: someone receiving the drone needs a landing zone like a small yard with no overhead obstructions. And maybe embed a transponder where the vehicle is to land.
The drones would be programmed to deliver packages to destination GPS coordinates. Not sure though exactly where at an destination address does the drone drop the package? The GPS
coordinate is not going to be at the front door stoop.
Plus, what about deliveries at apartment and condo complexes?
Seems like alot of issues and questions to be answered here. And I bet if drone delivery ever does come into reality, customers are going to be a big premium in shipment charges.
The drones would be programmed to deliver packages to destination GSP coordinates. Not sure though exactly where at an destination address does the drone drop the package? The GSP
coordinate is not going to be at the front door stoop.
Plus, what about deliveries at apartment and condo complexes?
Seems like alot of issues and questions to be answered here. And I bet if drone delivery ever does come into reality, customers are going to be a big premium in shipment charges.
I own three different brands of GPS for my car. All are not perfect when it comes to finding an address.
Sometimes they can be off as little as a hundred yards with an address and at other times they will be off blocks or even miles.
"Really? Do you honestly believe a new flying machine is going to be completely infallible and never malfunction?"
I never said anything of the sort - go back and read the post.
"And what does the Pony Express have to do with this. The current package and mail delivery system is adequate."
It was a response to the absurd luddite argument against progress you put forward.
"We've already seen how Obamacare has been rolled out while not only being far from perfect but is going to lead to health issues due to the incompetent handling of this over bloated bureaucratic department. The near Billion Dollar website boondoggle is proof of that. Do you honestly believe that unmanned drones flying all over the place will be innocuous to the point that they won't be a distraction to people let alone suddenly stop flying at inopportune times and drop on people or buildings?"
My response to you was entirely confined to the luddite argument you put forward - that advances will put people out of work.
Well, the Textile Industry in this country is gone. Went abroad. I think this proves my point. Good paying jobs have been replaced by cheap paying service industry jobs.
BTW. Do you even know anyone that owns a manufacturing company or at least works in a managerial capacity at one?
And since when does new technology equate with an advance in either lifestyle or in this case business? It is nothing of the sort. Look at how many computers (PC and main framses) malfunction on a daily basis. Leads to chaos at some companies and business comes to a grinding halt.
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