Major increase in Cincinnati's urban core population

[jmecklenborg]

Well the Great American Tower was a masterstroke. They stole various tenants from Covington's Rivercenter and sent the small river city's finances into a tailspin. We're 5+ years on and they still haven't landed tenants down there.


The biggest money in real estate is Class A office, not hotels or residential. So sure, the Joseph boys could throw 300 apartments up on their giant parking lot + the Dennison lot and live happily ever after. But they want more. Because enough isn't enough.

[motorman]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Well the Great American Tower was a masterstroke. They stole various tenants from Covington's Rivercenter and sent the small river city's finances into a tailspin. We're 5+ years on and they still haven't landed tenants down there.

Although my previous post might infer that I'm unappreciative of Great American Tower, I'm really happy it's there; this imposing, handsome structure looms over the CBD like no other building. Nevertheless, GAT could have been something even better if it had been both slimmed and heightened. Instead of the squat 665-ft. structure it is, it should have been a beautifully slendered building reaching 800-900 ft. As you already know, a number of contributors (especially on another forum) hope that one day soon Kroger will erect such a headquarters building adjacent to Central Parkway, but I think not. For all purposes, in these times, Kroger's financial thrusts will be aimed elsewhere.

The biggest money in real estate is Class A office, not hotels or residential. So sure, the Joseph boys could throw 300 apartments up on their giant parking lot + the Dennison lot and live happily ever after. But they want more. Because enough isn't enough.

Speaking of Class A office combined with residential, what do you see happening at the Dennison site and around Lytle Park within the next five years?
__________________________________________________ _______________________________

BTW, since I made reference to the Helmut Jahn building that wowed the local media back in 1991, for forum members who haven't seen it, here's a thumbnail of that game changing structure...

[jmecklenborg]

I think the Joseph boys suffer from the delusion that Fortune 500 companies want to pick up and move to Cincinnati. It's a cheap place to do business but companies and talent are moving to the more expensive, higher tax rate cities.

The GE office that just opened on The Banks is the only time since the 80s that a company has shown up out of nowhere and established a major new office in DT Cincinnati. Otherwise, the players have been consistent since Chiquita appeared back around 1987.

There is of course still more office space available on The Banks. Why would a company choose 7th & Main over a much higher visibility site on the riverfront?

[motorman]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I think the Joseph boys suffer from the delusion that Fortune 500 companies want to pick up and move to Cincinnati. It's a cheap place to do business but companies and talent are moving to the more expensive, higher tax rate cities.

Although the Joseph family employed such rosy rhetoric to help influence public opinion in favor of demolishing the Dennison building, sadly enough what you've pointed out may well be the case.

Only months ago, columnist & urbanist Aaron M. Renn offered his own sobering outlook why such major moves by F500 companies to cities like Cincinnati so seldom happen. Not only did Renn focus on Cincinnati, but the publication, itself, featured Great American Tower within its lead-in photograph...

* Globalization's Winner-Take-All Economy

[jmecklenborg]

I've met Aaron Renn on more than one occasion. I missed this column but I think he's mostly correct in the alarm that he sounds. What I don't think is correct about that column isn't what he says, it's the arrogance of the Peter Thiel-type people and especially Peter Thiel himself. Both he and Musk are in my opinion not good or trustworthy people. I am a bit suspicious that they are going to attempt to move "silicon valley" out of the United States to a small country that answers to no one, like New Zealand.


But I'm skeptical that they could also move Wall St., which is the financial hub of this half of this hemisphere. The very rotation of the planet ensures that there will be a dominant stock market in the western hemisphere so unless they manage to move Silicon Valley to a Caribbean Island, there is no threat that the stock market, and therefore the center of finance in the western hemisphere, will move with it.


The big problem the Josephs and others don't get is that top talent is much more likely to move to a city that is fun to live in. Nashville has managed to get a few tech offices because it has a reputation as being a fun place to live. Parking lots and parking garages aren't fun and that's what Cincinnati's elite likes.


I am skeptical that we will see Cincinnati nose-dive sometime in the next 50 years because the population keeps growing and costs keep going up on the coasts. Costs will keep some Cincinnati natives from leaving and meanwhile some people will seek refuge here. You can live in Cincinnati or Dayton for the same cost and it's pretty obvious that Cincinnati is the better place to live.

[Coseau]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The big problem the Josephs and others don't get is that top talent is much more likely to move to a city that is fun to live in. Nashville has managed to get a few tech offices because it has a reputation as being a fun place to live. Parking lots and parking garages aren't fun and that's what Cincinnati's elite likes.

Aaron Renn also mentioned something to this effect in a previous article " Looking Back From the Future ". For a city to grow in economic prosperity and to shield itself from decline due to macro economic forces in a global economy it has to focus on the simple basic things. A city needs a deep labor pool of highly skilled specialized workers. To keep or attract such a labor pool to compete in the global marketplace cities need high amenity environments and dynamic urban neighborhoods.

Cities with high amenity environments, accessible educational opportunities, low crime, dynamic urban neighborhoods with the ability to live car free such as New York, Boston, Seattle, San Francisco are reaping disproportionately economic rewards while seemingly successful 2nd tier cities such as Cincinnati are vulnerable to being left behind. This city's elite is in denial in about what attracts today's highly skilled knowledge based workers which is putting the city's economic future at risk to competitive pressures of the global economy.

Over time if Cincinnati Fortune 500 companies cannot attract or retain the skill set of workers they need to compete in the global economy due to this city's elites denial of today's economic realities they will relocate to global cities in which they can compete in the global marketplace. Inability or unwillingness to see the long term big picture by focusing on short term self gain by the city's elites jeopardizes the city's ability to compete in the global economy.

[motorman]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I've met Aaron Renn on more than one occasion. I missed this column but I think he's mostly correct in the alarm that he sounds. What I don't think is correct about that column isn't what he says, it's the arrogance of the Peter Thiel-type people and especially Peter Thiel himself. Both he and Musk are in my opinion not good or trustworthy people. I am a bit suspicious that they are going to attempt to move "silicon valley" out of the United States to a small country that answers to no one, like New Zealand.


But I'm skeptical that they could also move Wall St., which is the financial hub of this half of this hemisphere. The very rotation of the planet ensures that there will be a dominant stock market in the western hemisphere so unless they manage to move Silicon Valley to a Caribbean Island, there is no threat that the stock market, and therefore the center of finance in the western hemisphere, will move with it.

Although this thread needs to remain centered on Cincinnati's population growth, I'd just like to add that I share your skepticism not only of Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, but also of a pantheon of other business "Lords of Light & Darkness" such as Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Paul Allen, Steve Ballmer, Richard Branson and (of course) Warren Buffett.

The round table of these kindred souls (hosted over by no less than the spirit of Steve Jobs) is absolutely fascinating and frightening in its extreme. As for myself, I have grown weary of reading their endless proclamations and promises every time I turn to either a business, technical or science news source. Much like you, I'm deeply concerned about their enormous macro-economic influences over not only Cincinnati and the Midwest, but the nation as a whole.

[motorman]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

The big problem the Josephs and others don't get is that top talent is much more likely to move to a city that is fun to live in. Nashville has managed to get a few tech offices because it has a reputation as being a fun place to live. Parking lots and parking garages aren't fun and that's what Cincinnati's elite likes.

Originally Posted by Coseau

Cities with high amenity environments, accessible educational opportunities, low crime, dynamic urban neighborhoods with the ability to live car free such as New York, Boston, Seattle, San Francisco are reaping disproportionately economic rewards while seemingly successful 2nd tier cities such as Cincinnati are vulnerable to being left behind. This city's elite is in denial in about what attracts today's highly skilled knowledge based workers which is putting the city's economic future at risk to competitive pressures of the global economy.

Over time if Cincinnati Fortune 500 companies cannot attract or retain the skill set of workers they need to compete in the global economy due to this city's elites denial of today's economic realities they will relocate to global cities in which they can compete in the global marketplace. Inability or unwillingness to see the long term big picture by focusing on short term self gain by the city's elites jeopardizes the city's ability to compete in the global economy.

As both of you have emphatically pointed out, Cincinnati is beset by an entrenched business oligarchy who consistently stymie any major downtown development not under their control. As you mentioned, essentially all they do do is bolster auto sales, maintain parking lot revenues and promote their pro teams on the riverfront. When it comes to downtown Cincinnati becoming more than merely this good old boys' ATM, how can progressives neutralize their destructive influence, other than by send spinning their little Napoleonic apparatchik, John Cranley?