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North Carolina's 2010 Census number was higher than trended throughout the 2000 decade by the Census. The Census put the 2009 population of the state at ~9,380,000. When the 2010 Census came in, NC was ~9,535,000. Clearly the Census was underestimating the state again! Conversely, they were over-estimating Georgia at ~9,829,000 in 2009 while the Census only found it to be ~9,688,000. The reported spread between GA and NC in 2009 was ~450,000 while the actual spread in the 2010 Census was just 153,000. For that 153,000 GA gets more representation in Congress.
I think NC will close that gap in 2010's and pass GA in population in the 2020 Census. For that matter, it will also pass Michigan (as will Georgia).
As you and I have stated in other threads the bulk of the growth in NC is concentrated heavily in the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas. I think many will be surprised when the figures come out for both of the cities and counties of Raleigh and Charlotte. Both counties will be topping 1 million in the next few years. Yeah, that may be a surprise to some, NC having 2 counties over 1 million.
As another poster pointed out, Greenville and Wilmington are also 2 cities in NC that have been growing like crazy. Fayetteville will probably have some nice growth rates due to the military.
I also share the confusion about GA getting a seat over NC over having 153k more. I agree that come next Census NC will get the seat and be the premier state in the Southeast.
Looks like the city and the county better get prepared for that merger.
Chop chop.
Either they merge, or they BOTH go down together. The city and the county both lost population this go around.
The population will keep declining merger or no merger. It will make no difference. Most of the city is just not a desirable place to live, so people move to the suburbs as soon as they can afford it.
The population will keep declining merger or no merger. It will make no difference. Most of the city is just not a desirable place to live, so people move to the suburbs as soon as they can afford it.
I live in Colorado Springs and the 2010 population was a little over 416,000. Thats up from a little bit over 360,000 in 2000, so a gain of 56,000 people. The County(El Paso) went from 516,000 in 2000 to around 622,000 people now, so a gain of 105,000 people.
As you and I have stated in other threads the bulk of the growth in NC is concentrated heavily in the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas. I think many will be surprised when the figures come out for both of the cities and counties of Raleigh and Charlotte. Both counties will be topping 1 million in the next few years. Yeah, that may be a surprise to some, NC having 2 counties over 1 million.
As another poster pointed out, Greenville and Wilmington are also 2 cities in NC that have been growing like crazy. Fayetteville will probably have some nice growth rates due to the military.
I also share the confusion about GA getting a seat over NC over having 153k more. I agree that come next Census NC will get the seat and be the premier state in the Southeast.
The NC state demographer's office ( Population Estimates and Projections | NC | OSBM ) projects that Mecklenburg will hit 1,000,000 by 2020 (or likely 2019), and Wake will hit 1,000,000 by 2015 (likely 2014). Guilford - 3rd - will hit 500,000 about the same time Wake hits 1,000,000.
That year - 2015 - is also their estimate of when NC hits 10,000,000, with 11 counties with populations over 200,000, 3 over 500,000, one just over a million, and one just under.
As you and I have stated in other threads the bulk of the growth in NC is concentrated heavily in the Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas. I think many will be surprised when the figures come out for both of the cities and counties of Raleigh and Charlotte. Both counties will be topping 1 million in the next few years. Yeah, that may be a surprise to some, NC having 2 counties over 1 million.
As another poster pointed out, Greenville and Wilmington are also 2 cities in NC that have been growing like crazy. Fayetteville will probably have some nice growth rates due to the military.
I also share the confusion about GA getting a seat over NC over having 153k more. I agree that come next Census NC will get the seat and be the premier state in the Southeast.
Yeah, the distribution of population in NC will help propel it over Georgia, as a more important state economically, IMO. All of Georgia's peaches are in one basket (for the most part).
Yeah, the distribution of population in NC will help propel it over Georgia, as a more important state economically, IMO. All of Georgia's peaches are in one basket (for the most part).
How? In Georgia, you have Atlanta, but then the next closest metro is Augusta, then Macon, Columbus, and Savannah. The population/economic clout drops significantly after Atlanta in Georgia. In North Carolina, you have Charlotte and the Raleigh area. You also have the Winston-Salem area, as well as Wilmington, Greenville, etc.
The NC state demographer's office ( Population Estimates and Projections | NC | OSBM ) projects that Mecklenburg will hit 1,000,000 by 2020 (or likely 2019), and Wake will hit 1,000,000 by 2015 (likely 2014). Guilford - 3rd - will hit 500,000 about the same time Wake hits 1,000,000.
That year - 2015 - is also their estimate of when NC hits 10,000,000, with 11 counties with populations over 200,000, 3 over 500,000, one just over a million, and one just under.
I think the projections for Wake and Mecklenburg are conservative. In the 2010 Census they both will top 900k and both are adding 30k a year. I'd say Wake will get it 2013 and Mecklenburg 2016.
Location: Austin, TX/Chicago, IL/Houston, TX/Washington, DC
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By City:
- Chicago: 2,695,598
- Houston: 2,099,451
- San Antonio: 1,327,407
- Dallas: 1,197,816
- Indianapolis: 829,718
- Austin: 790,390
- Fort Worth: 741,206
- El Paso: 649,121
- Seattle: 630,320
- Baltimore: 620,961
- Washington DC: 601,723
- Denver: 600,158
- Portland: 583,776
- Las Vegas: 583,756
- Oklahoma City: 579,999
- Kansas City: 459,787
- Tulsa: 391,906
- New Orleans: 343,829
- Honolulu: 337,256
- Saint Louis: 319,294
- Salt Lake City: 186,440
By MSA:
- Chicago MSA: 9,294,679 (Uncompleted until WI release)
- Dallas/Fort Worth MSA: 6,371,863 (Officially Completed)
- Houston MSA: 5,946,300 (Officially Completed)
- Washington DC MSA: 5,524,972 (Uncompleted until WV release)
- Seattle MSA: 3,439,809 (Officially Completed)
- Saint Louis MSA: 2,779,939 (Officially Completed)
- Baltimore MSA: 2,710,489 (Officially Completed)
- Denver MSA: 2,543,482 (Officially Completed)
- Portland MSA: 2,226,009 (Officially Completed)
- San Antonio MSA: 2,142,508 (Officially Completed)
- Las Vegas MSA: 1,951,269 (Officially Completed)
- Indianapolis MSA: 1,756,241 (Officially Completed)
- Austin MSA: 1,716,289 (Officially Completed)
- New Orleans MSA: 1,167,764 (Officially Completed)
- Oklahoma City MSA: 1,252,987 (Officially Completed)
- Salt Lake City MSA: 1,124,197 (Officially Completed)
- Honolulu MSA: 953,207 (Officially Completed)
- Tulsa MSA: 937,478 (Officially Completed)
- El Paso MSA: 800,647 (Officially Completed)
- Kansas City MSA: N/A (Only halfway complete since KS isn't out yet)
By CSA:
- Chicago CSA: 9,519,595 (Uncompleted until WI release)
- Washington DC/Baltimore CSA: 8,639,239 (Uncompleted until WV release)
- Dallas/Fort Worth CSA: 6,610,530 (Officially Completed)
- Houston CSA: 6,051,363 (Officially Completed)
- Seattle CSA: 4,199,312 (Officially Completed)
- Denver CSA: 3,090,874 (Officially Completed)
- Saint Louis CSA: 2,845,298 (Officially Completed)
- Indianapolis CSA: 2,080,782 (Officially Completed)
- Las Vegas CSA: 1,995,215 (Officially Completed)
- Austin CSA: 1,759,039 (Officially Completed)
- Salt Lake City CSA: 1,744,886 (Officially Completed)
- Oklahoma City CSA: 1,322,429 (Officially Completed)
- New Orleans CSA: 1,214,932 (Officially Completed)
- Tulsa CSA: 988,454 (Officially Completed)
- Kansas City CSA: N/A (Only halfway complete since KS isn't out yet)
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidals
NC should be interesting - through the 1970s and 80s, the census bureau tended to under-estimate populations (growth projections for the state consistently ran below what the 1980, 1990, and 2000 censuses actually revealed), and that was corrected somewhat between the 1990 and 2000 census, so precedent makes guessing the growth in the state especially tricky. Apart from the big three metros, I'd be curious to see how Wilmington and Greenville came out - those are the fastest growing of the smaller cities, proportionally at rates that resemble those of the bigger cities in the central part of the state.
I think North Carolina is a very balanced state, and potentially it has what it takes to be a leading state in the country. It's a state that I'm personally very fond of and its on my short list of states that I like and could easily live in.
It'll be interesting to see how the rates and estimates kept up with North Carolina's cities. This week they'll announce the information on Tuesday & Thursday I believe, I hope North Carolina is the one they release tomorrow. Cant wait to see how close Charlotte & Research Triangle are distance wise with each other.
EDIT: By city populations, it seems Portland beat Las Vegas by only a few people, it was extremely close for them both.
Last edited by DANNYY; 02-28-2011 at 06:33 PM..
Reason: Tweak.
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