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... and you were making a long term investment portfolio, which cities would you buy and which ones would you short? As a restriction, you can't "cash out" your portfolio until 2030. What direction do you see various major metros and cities heading?
Buy: Cities/metros that you suspect will make substantial gains during the next 20 years. These locales may be lagging behind now (so their stock price would be cheap) but appear to be turning around, or they may be great now and are on track to get even better.
Safety: Cities/metros that will maintain similar status over the coming decades. It would be surprising if they went to the extreme in either direction.
Short: Cities/metros that you suspect will decline or lose status during the next 20 years. Basically, you "sell" their stock now and have to buy it back later (hopefully at a lower price). They may be lagging behind now and are on track to become obsolete ghost towns, or they may be overhyped and unsustainable.
Note: population should NOT be the sole or main criteria here. Here are the criteria, in no particular order:
Population relative to other metro areas
Unemployment
Gross regional product
Average income, normalized to cost of living
Pollution
Presence of major sports teams
Educational attainment of the population
Being a destination for legal immigrants
Diversity of living options (can someone live without a car? what about have a house with a lawn? etc.)
NYC: Safety
LA: Buy
Chicago: Short
Phoenix: short
Philly: safety
Houston: Buy
Dallas: Buy
anywhere in NC: BUY
Baltimore: BUy
DC: BUY
I'll do more after I eat.
Only one change for me
DC short
Feds are going to stop spending and the DC economy may look like everyone else in 2008
Philly is berkshire Bs Accumulate (NOT SAFETY NOR DO i FEEL nyc IS SAFETY nyc IS 402k FROM 24 TO 58) very consistent and continues to go up even in bad economies though doesnt grow as fast in the good economies
Feds are going to stop spending and the DC economy may look like everyone else in 2008
Philly is berkshire Bs Accumulate (NOT SAFETY NOR DO i FEEL nyc IS SAFETY nyc IS 402k FROM 24 TO 58) very consistent and continues to go up even in bad economies though doesnt grow as fast in the good economies
Feds are going to stop spending and the DC economy may look like everyone else in 2008
Philly is berkshire Bs Accumulate (NOT SAFETY NOR DO i FEEL nyc IS SAFETY nyc IS 402k FROM 24 TO 58) very consistent and continues to go up even in bad economies though doesnt grow as fast in the good economies
Well large defence cuts; which ave a 3/2 to 1 impact private to public in DC and already overpriced housing market starting to become riled in short sales
Over leverage of foreign investment and grwoth assumtions based on decannual 20+ percent growth in a market grossly supported by government spend
I am pretty the VAST majority of peeople in this forum never experienced a DC economy in contraction based on govt spend
Yes the Feds employ directly about 20% today and indirectly (though I argue DIRECTLY on govt contract) an additional 40% of the DC economy(and please dont tell me discovery channel or Marriott)
So yes it is absolutely the most insular and preserved bubble in the uS yet to burst
And I am not a nay sayer. I am a realist I have lived through this in the past. If you are below 35 you have not and zero context nor perspective
Well large defence cuts; which ave a 3/2 to 1 impact private to public in DC and already overpriced housing market starting to become riled in short sales
Over leverage of foreign investment and grwoth assumtions based on decannual 20+ percent growth in a market grossly supported by government spend
I am pretty the VAST majority of peeople in this forum never experienced a DC economy in contraction based on govt spend
Yes the Feds employ directly about 20% today and indirectly (though I argue DIRECTLY on govt contract) an additional 40% of the DC economy(and please dont tell me discovery channel or Marriott)
So yes it is absolutely the most insular and preserved bubble in the uS yet to burst
And I am not a nay sayer. I am a realist I have lived through this in the past. If you are below 35 you have not and zero context nor perspective
If you're referring to the VA suburbs, then yes, you have a point. Those contractors are vulnerable, but as long as the US has a government, the DC economy will always boom. It's not a bubble. It's a constant cash flow.
If you're referring to the VA suburbs, then yes, you have a point. Those contractors are vulnerable, but as long as the US has a government, the DC economy will always boom. It's not a bubble. It's a constant cash flow.
I agree with this. The Virginia side of the DC area is gonna take a pounding.
If you're referring to the VA suburbs, then yes, you have a point. Those contractors are vulnerable, but as long as the US has a government, the DC economy will always boom. It's not a bubble. It's a constant cash flow.
Will always boom
How old are you? were you around in the 80s?
Wow delusion is greater in the youth than I had assumed
Believe as you may; WE are NOT a socilaist sociesty as DC is in the current incarnation being funded as
Wow Just wow
I have seen both sides and dont believe DC to e insulated (why would 1.5% of the US population be insulated from reality, it isnt it has been delayed not residing in a bubble
Holy sh$t people in DC actually believe their economy is special WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
look at history people have TREMENDOUSLY short memeories and to me useless experience to believe DC is some US bubble wow just wow I thought DC attracted smart people
Well large defence cuts; which ave a 3/2 to 1 impact private to public in DC and already overpriced housing market starting to become riled in short sales
Over leverage of foreign investment and grwoth assumtions based on decannual 20+ percent growth in a market grossly supported by government spend
I am pretty the VAST majority of peeople in this forum never experienced a DC economy in contraction based on govt spend
Yes the Feds employ directly about 20% today and indirectly (though I argue DIRECTLY on govt contract) an additional 40% of the DC economy(and please dont tell me discovery channel or Marriott)
So yes it is absolutely the most insular and preserved bubble in the uS yet to burst
And I am not a nay sayer. I am a realist I have lived through this in the past. If you are below 35 you have not and zero context nor perspective
I have never asked you this before but, what are your unemployment predictions for the D.C. MSA and what are the housing price % reductions for the D.C. MSA? Also, based on that, what are your predictions for 2012 in the D.C. MSA (meaning actual number %)? It will be interesting to compare what you predict now at the end of 2011 compared to what will actually happen this time next year at the end of 2012. Just wondering.....
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