Where America Wants To Live: The Top Cities of 2012 (populations, rates, places)

[Min-Chi-Cbus]

Originally Posted by SweethomeSanAntonio

San Antonio is just years away from surpassing Pittsburgh, Portland and eventually Denver.

It's not passing Denver, sorry. ANd I don't think it will surpass Portland either, since between SA and Austin I can't see the combined area having more than 6 or 7 million, and I see Austin being the larger of the two, and by that time (20-40 years), Portland and Denver will be at least twice their current sizes.

[Min-Chi-Cbus]

Originally Posted by SweethomeSanAntonio

San Antonio is growing faster than Denver but a better scenario would be that both cities will keep climbing and moving closer to the top 15, with Denver leading the way. Baltimore, St Louis, Tampa, San Diego, Minneapolis will eventually fall behind Denver and San Antonio if growth rates continue the same for both cities. It will take some time though, 15-20 years just my guess.

You don't have to guess....just plug in the numbers!

E.g. Assuming the following:
Minneapolis (3.3 million current population; 10% decennial growth indefinitely)
San Antonio (1.9 million current populatoin; 30% decennial growth indefinitely)

It would take 35 years for San Antonio to surpass Minneapolis at those rates, at over 4.5 million (the break-even population).

Let's see if that scenario takes place....

[Drewcifer]

At some point population growth in the US is going to slow considerably. With declining birthrates and rising living standards in the developing world immigration is eventually going to fall to the point where it can no longer compensate for the low domestic birth rate. Right now high birth rates among immigrants are also helping to keep the country growing but that will probably only last for a generation.

Once that happens American cities will be largely stable in population except for internal migration caused by economic shifts.

[JoninATX]

San Antonio has a population of 2,250,000. Portland has about 50- 70k more, so it is likely that San Antonio could pass Portland, OR in the next few years.

[JoninATX]

As for Austin passing San Antonio it would take at least 15-20 yrs. Both cities are experiencing significant growth, right now, the Austin- San Antonio corridor is around 4.2 million if growth rates continue averaging nearly 100k a year the area will hit the 5 million mark sometime in 2020.

[Min-Chi-Cbus]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

San Antonio has a population of 2,250,000. Portland has about 50- 70k more, so it is likely that San Antonio could pass Portland, OR in the next few years.

Is that the CSA number? I don't remember SA being so high!

Edit: I checked, and that's the MSA. Okay, Portland may be toast!

[Min-Chi-Cbus]

Originally Posted by JoninATX

As for Austin passing San Antonio it would take at least 15-20 yrs. Both cities are experiencing significant growth, right now, the Austin- San Antonio corridor is around 4.2 million if growth rates continue averaging nearly 100k a year the area will hit the 5 million mark sometime in 2020.

Using the same source (Wiki), Austin is at 1.8M and SA is 2.2M. I don't see the two metros combining into one CSA anytime soon, and even if they did, they wouldn't feel like one large city and people from both cities probably wouldn't associate themselves with the other (like DC/Baltimore, SF/SJ, even Milwaukee/Chicago). The corridor thing is fun I'm sure, but if you're going to combine large swaths of populated areas, don't forget how much more densely populated much of the Northeast, Southeast and Midwest are in certain areas (Bos-Wash, Chi-Pitts, Atl-Char, etc.).

[JoninATX]

Agreed, now as far as the Austin & San Antonio CSA goes it will probably never happen. Austin growth patterns are showing the city growing more to the north rather than the south and San Antonio growth patterns from what I've heard is growing more to the Northwest which is the hill country area rather than north itself. Now the cities in between the 2 will keep growing and may one-day connect but more than likely both cities will remain seperate. Which to me is a good thing.

[jbcmh81]

Not sure why people insist on projecting what happened 5 years ago, or even last year, to what will happen next year or 20 years down the road. Boom times never last because the conditions that allowed places to boom eventually cease to exist *because* of the boom itself. Many of these places in the Sun Belt, like in Texas, etc are where Cleveland and Detroit were 70 years ago. Those cities never foresaw the boom end, either. No place ever does.

[SweethomeSanAntonio]

Originally Posted by Min-Chi-Cbus

You don't have to guess....just plug in the numbers!

E.g. Assuming the following:
Minneapolis (3.3 million current population; 10% decennial growth indefinitely)
San Antonio (1.9 million current populatoin; 30% decennial growth indefinitely)

It would take 35 years for San Antonio to surpass Minneapolis at those rates, at over 4.5 million (the break-even population).

Let's see if that scenario takes place....

San Antonio will gain ground on Minneapolis/St. Paul since it is growing much faster. San Antonio doubled in size in 30 years and it's growing faster than ever before so it's not an unlikely scenario that it will either be equal or surpass its population.

New MSA estimates as of January, 2013:

01. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA: 19,128,707
02. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA: 13,046,718
03. Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI: 9,559,207
04. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 6,725,448
05. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX: 6,281,135
06. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: 6,029,312
07. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: 5,845,430
08. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL: 5,771,842
09. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA: 5,488,101
10. Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH: 4,631,177
11. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: 4,449,364
12. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: 4,427,558
13. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ: 4,376,947
14. Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI: 4,261,384
15. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: 3,570,746
16. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: 3,365,804
17. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA: 3,192,730
18. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: 2,876,389
19. St. Louis, MO-IL: 2,827,929
20. Baltimore-Towson, MD: 2,751,420
21. Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO: 2,667,456
22. Pittsburgh, PA: 2,358,454
23. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: 2,309,907
24. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: 2,267,995
25. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: 2,229,013
26. Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA: 2,216,249
27. Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN: 2,150,524
28. Kansas City, MO-KS: 2,078,609
29. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH: 2,057,610
30. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV: 2,021,856
31. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: 1,896,604
32. Columbus, OH: 1,889,595
33. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: 1,869,645
34. Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC: 1,855,510
35. Indianapolis-Carmel, IN: 1,810,371
36. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC: 1,690,734
37. Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN: 1,656,372
38. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA: 1,599,720
39. Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI: 1,570,011
40. Jacksonville, FL: 1,385,806
41. Memphis, TN-MS-AR: 1,339,713
42. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: 1,311,591
43. Oklahoma City, OK: 1,308,123
44. Richmond, VA: 1,288,443
45. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: 1,218,129
46. Raleigh-Cary, NC: 1,214,665
47. New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA: 1,194,856
48. Salt Lake City, UT: 1,173,091
49. Birmingham-Hoover, AL: 1,140,478
50. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY: 1,131,371
51. Rochester, NY: 1,057,255
52. Tucson, AZ: 1,003,930