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The decline of oil will probably help Toronto over the long term.
It helps manufacturing by a lower dollar which also helps tourism. Immigration will increase as more head to Toronto due to the shine off Alberta's oil based economy and Vancouver is too expensive. Montreal will also benefit from these things.
Also fewer people will leave Toronto to go West for the fast and very well paying oil jobs. Toronto and area {ie Waterloo} are also high-tech meccas and Toronto is home to the world's 8th largest stock exchange and infrastructure spending is very strong as billions are being spend on transit and that will increase with Trudeau who has made infrastructure a top priority.
The decline of oil will probably help Toronto over the long term.
It helps manufacturing by a lower dollar which also helps tourism. Immigration will increase as more head to Toronto due to the shine off Alberta's oil based economy and Vancouver is too expensive. Montreal will also benefit from these things.
Also fewer people will leave Toronto to go West for the fast and very well paying oil jobs. Toronto and area {ie Waterloo} are also high-tech meccas and Toronto is home to the world's 8th largest stock exchange and infrastructure spending is very strong as billions are being spend on transit and that will increase with Trudeau who has made infrastructure a top priority.
Hi-tech in what sense? I keep hearing about this famed Waterloo Hi-Tech Corridor but haven't heard of a single major start-up that's come out of there since Research in Motion (aka The Blackberry Company). Toronto's economy is finance and construction. If one of those pillars falls, the entire house of cards collapses. Montreal and Vancouver have much more diverse economies, even if Vancouver has more risk due to the overvalued housing. All in all, I think in Canada the brightest futures are:
1. Edmonton (more diversified than Calgary. Really underrated place)
2. Calgary (having tons of oil is still a blessing)
3. Ottawa (government always keeps growing)
4. Montreal (diverse economy with a population that can't leave due to language barriers)
5. Toronto (booming at the moment. Demographics look excellent. Economic pillars are a house of cards)
6. Vancouver (a definite bubble. One of the most livable cities in the world but the economy needs to be better managed)
I'm a big believer in slow-and-steady. And Boston for me is the best case of slow-and-steady. Las Vegas and Phoenix were booming 10 years ago and look what happened. Growth that is overwhelmingly condos is not sustainable. It's just not.
What city has the brightest future for growth, economy, movies, fame, tourism, transit, and upscale shopping?
Growth-Toronto: It's in its own country that has a very lax immigration system and it serves as one of two major gateways into its country. I'd say that's a recipe for continued growth. I think Toronto will grow 80-100k for the next decade at least. Neither Boston nor Philly can get even a fraction of that.
Economy-Boston: hi-tech, Education, Chemicals, Pharma, Insurance, it has them in spades. I also think it's economy, since it's not built largely on housing and construction is more stable than Toronto's. Philly is making great strides but it doesn't have any major cluster economy outside of Chemicals, Pharma, now Media with Comcast. It also competes with NY for major multinationals.
Movies-Boston or Toronto. Neither will excel at this but they both have good roots. Boston has lots of universities which brings in talent which brings in firms. Toronto has the tax credits and their film festival. Both will be far, far beyond their main competition though (New York and Vancouver, respectively)
Fame-At the global stage, Boston or Toronto. In the US, definitely Boston. In Latin America, definitely Boston. Here's where Canada's small size puts Toronto at a disadvantage. In terms of name recognition, it's rarely a city talked about in the US. And, given the Latin American links to the US, you find that most Latin Americans have heard of Boston and Philly before Toronto (which is only known in major resort areas). In Europe, it's probably Boston or Toronto. They are both big gateways from the United Kingdom to North America. I think both will gain fame in decades to come.
Tourism-Philadelphia. It has strong potential but is always overshadowed by NY and Washington. Toronto's problems are threefold: 1) it's geographically isolated from most of the US; 2) the parts of the U.S. that do have air connections to Toronto find the prices wayyy to high for what you get. Most would rather pay $70 round-trip to reach Chicago than paying $260 to visit Toronto. Toronto is also overshadowed by Montreal, which is seen as the "exotic" Canadian city. 3) Most Americans are really insular and when they do travel they go for weather (Caribbean, Hawaii) or for something different (Europe, East Asia). Toronto simply doesn't offer what the average American is looking for. Latin Americans who spend the $1000+ to come north prefer Miami, Los Angeles and New York. Toronto is not at the top of the list. Typically Europeans crossing the great pond also come to the US and to gateway places like New York, Las Vegas, Orlando, etc. So Toronto has to compete regionally which more cheaper (Chicago, New York) options or with more exotic (Montreal) locations. Boston is also isolated. But Boston has really not been proactive when it's come to luring tourists. Prices to Logan are not the cheapest and the city has some amazing tourist sights it is not advertising. It has no alluring slogan (Virginia is for Lovers) and when most people think Massachusetts of New England, Boston has allowed itself to lose the image of being a good tourist location (many instinctively head to Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, Newport, Acadia, Maine Coast, etc. Philadelphia is super cheap to reach for the 60 million who live in the Mid-Atlantic. It also has good potential because it is, frankly, doing very little right now. It's coasting on its Liberty Bell image. I've seen more ads for Brandywine Valley in Delaware/Chester County than I have for Philly. I also think the Center City could use some cleaning. It's dumpy in parts and in other places smells awful. Fix that up and you have a city with a great core, good energy and a terrific location. All the hallmarks of a tourist bonanza
Transit-Philadelphia. SEPTA sucks but being at the juncture of the Bos-Wash Corridor has benefits. Toronto has the better streetcar system and subway. Boston has better commuter rail imo. But Philly has an excellent location that means it will be at the heart of many future transport projects (particularly hi-speed rail)
Upscale Shopping. No clue. I'll go with Boston since it's by far the wealthiest of the three metros.
Overall: Boston 3 points, Philadelphia 2 points, Toronto 2 points. Boston wins by a small amount
GROWTH: Well Toronto hands down....are the other 2 growing at all...
FAME: Whatever that is...I guess you mean world recognition.
No offence but Philly and Boston aren't the big dogs in US fame game,
that would be NYC and LAX ...followed by Chicago...Vegas, and San Fran.
Toronto IS Canada's top dog....well known around the world...we have people from around the globe!
Economy: Again I'm going with Toronto. Contrary to what you think it has a diversified
economy not a one trick pony....that would be Calgary. Toronto is a major distribution point,
finance too, including a major stock exchange, auto sector is huge too, over 30% of exports
for Ontario is the auto sector, auto mfg plants, auto parts, etc
Movies: Well it's not called Hollywood North for nothing ...Toronto actually edges out
Vancouver in film production ...consistently adding over $ 1 billion dollars to the TO economy.
Tourism: Toronto again is strong internationally, though not sure compared to Philly & Boston.
As for the isolated location ...nonsense, just look at a map...Toronto is
within 500 miles of over 100 million americans and 20 million Canadians.
Transit: Toronto has third highest ridership after New York city and Mexico City,
Philly and Boston are way down the pack....Canadians like public transportation more than americans.
All three cities have bright futures. A case could be made for Philly that it has the "brightest" potential, as Philly is seeing an astounding burst of growth in recent years, something Boston and Toronto saw years ago. In fact, if anything, Toronto never had much of a decline.
(Observation that OP, new to CD, has a a short though interesting posting history, particularly wrt Philadelphia. Wonder what gives? )
Hi-tech in what sense? I keep hearing about this famed Waterloo Hi-Tech Corridor but haven't heard of a single major start-up that's come out of there since Research in Motion (aka The Blackberry Company). Toronto's economy is finance and construction. If one of those pillars falls, the entire house of cards collapses. Montreal and Vancouver have much more diverse economies, even if Vancouver has more risk due to the overvalued housing. All in all, I think in Canada the brightest futures are:
5. Toronto (booming at the moment. Demographics look excellent. Economic pillars are a house of cards
Toronto's economy is highly diversified, finance and construction are not the be-all and end-all of it.
Also, the film and television industry in Toronto surpasses that of Vancouver by a good margin.
As to the original post, Toronto is on an upward trajectory that those other two cities can't really compete with, in 10 years time it wont even be fair to compare them to each other.
Growth: Toronto - TO has the most aggressive pro growth policies of the three cities. Toronto also being the alpha city of Canada has less competition when it comes to where immigrants and transplants land when looking to settle.
Economy: Boston - Along with having a very diverse economy the main pillars of the Boston economy are Life Sciences, Healthcare, High Tech and Education. Many of those are not only recession resistant but also high growth when looking into how the future economy will be structured. Boston already being the Life Science and Healthcare capitol of the world is poised to explode into the Life Science version of Silicon Valley in the very near future. For reference the Boston area secures more Venture Capitol funding than the entire nation of Canada. Add to that the fact that its higher learning institutions attract the best and brightest in the world, many of which stay in the area to continue or start their careers.
Movies: Toronto - TO is already known as Hollywood North and hosts on the most prestigious film festivals in the world. Now that the CDN dollar has hit a recent low, directors will once again look to Toronto as a inexpensive location to film. Plus the area already has a well established production infrastructure in place.
Fame: Draw - None of these cities are traditionally what you would identify as "famous". I think within certain circles each of them registers more than others, depending on your likes/dislikes and whatever field you are in.
Tourism: Philadelphia - I think Boston and Toronto have been clicking when it comes to International tourism (Both are firmly planted in the top 10 in N. America) So I think Philly has been very underrated and has nowhere to go but up. Toronto and Boston will continue to be magnets, especially with the impressive growth at both Pearson and Logan Airports, but Philly has been so underrated and has so much for a visitor to see when it comes to history, cuisine and culture that its best years are ahead.
Transit: I would need to confirm the numbers floating out there, but all three seem to have a ton of approved and pending transit projects in the pipeline. If someone could post the total dollars it would be an interesting comparison. I do not have enough information to make an educated conclusion.
Upscale Shopping: Boston - All three are on every luxury retailers list of places to expand or double down on their current locations. I am going with Boston here for the simple fact that the growth in biotech, VC and high tech and wealth management will really attract a certain type of wealthy resident to relocate or visit the city for business or pleasure. This article was an interesting read on the topic.
GROWTH: Well Toronto hands down....are the other 2 growing at all...
FAME: Whatever that is...I guess you mean world recognition.
No offence but Philly and Boston aren't the big dogs in US fame game,
that would be NYC and LAX ...followed by Chicago...Vegas, and San Fran.
Toronto IS Canada's top dog....well known around the world...we have people from around the globe!
Economy: Again I'm going with Toronto. Contrary to what you think it has a diversified
economy not a one trick pony....that would be Calgary. Toronto is a major distribution point,
finance too, including a major stock exchange, auto sector is huge too, over 30% of exports
for Ontario is the auto sector, auto mfg plants, auto parts, etc
Movies: Well it's not called Hollywood North for nothing ...Toronto actually edges out
Vancouver in film production ...consistently adding over $ 1 billion dollars to the TO economy.
Tourism: Toronto again is strong internationally, though not sure compared to Philly & Boston.
As for the isolated location ...nonsense, just look at a map...Toronto is
within 500 miles of over 100 million americans and 20 million Canadians.
Transit: Toronto has third highest ridership after New York city and Mexico City,
Philly and Boston are way down the pack....Canadians like public transportation more than americans.
You are talking like a marketing firm. You mention Toronto in isolation and don't even address how it compares to the other cities, other than to make wisecracks ("are the other 2 growing at all"). I'd say your analysis right here is nearly all biased. You say Toronto is diverse. Is it more diverse than Boston or Philly? I don't know because you simply stated it was diverse and gave the point to Toronto. I think it's this kind of detached arrogance that puts people off. Is Toronto on an upward trajectory? Of course. Does that mean Toronto is perfect? To some forumers, yes. I think for the majority of us, Toronto could learn a few things from other cities.
And how is Toronto strong on tourism? I have never met a single person, after traveling through nearly 40 countries in Europe and Asia that has told me they wished to visit Toronto. I've heard Montreal. I've heard Vancouver. I've never heard Toronto. It's a fantastic place but it lacks a coherent brand like "I <3 NY" or an exotic image like Paris or Bali. Also, the US gets 75 million international tourists annually. Canada gets 17 million annually. Many more intl tourists visit the US Northeast than visit the entirety of Canada. And, for many, the gateway city is Boston. And, for many doing New York-DC, they stop in Philly. Oh, and of Canada's intl tourists nearly 3/4ths are American! There are months when over 90% of tourists entering Canada are American. If it weren't for Americans, Canada's tourism numbers would be lower than the Dominican Republic! And that's just international arrivals. Boston and Philly are major cities on the domestic US tourism circuit. And since the US is 325 million people, that means they get a lot more traffic than Toronto does on account of Canada's small population. So I'd love to hear about why Toronto's tourism is so fantastic. And I'd prefer numbers and stats other than vague, boosterist statements.
And where does your statement about the US Fame Game come from? Have you lived here? Let me fill you in. Every single child in the United States, again, a country of 325 million people, is taught about Boston and Philadelphia. We all learn about American History and Boston and Philadelphia are the main protagonists. The Independence Hall, Benjamin Franklin, Betsy Ross, the Liberty Bell in Philly; Boston Tea Party, Boston Massacre, American Revolution, Plymouth Rock, Salem Witch Trials in Boston. Boston and Philadelphia have universal name recognition in the US. So your assessment is completely wrong. Every child in America is forced to read book after book after book about events that occurred in Boston and Philadelphia. That is not the case for Chicago, Los Angeles or San Francisco. The cities you listed are those that top the international tourist circuit.
As for this: "Toronto IS Canada's top dog....well known around the world...we have people from around the globe!"
Boston and Philadelphia have people from around the globa. Big whoop. And what is your evidence that Toronto is well known around the world? Asians will know Vancouver and it got a big boost after the 2010 Olympics. Europeans might know Montreal. But who knows Toronto? What does Toronto offer tourists than they cannot find anywhere else?
Nobody could predict the future. There are too many factors regarding not only the economy and politics, but the weather/global climate. 20 years from now, half of Boston could be under water.
We'll never know. Philadelphia could have a very bright future if it capitalizes on it's location between NYC and DC. Will it do better than the other cities? Who knows.
All three I think have bright futures but it's hard to argue with what's going on in Toronto right now. Also Toronto has a bit more of an "it" factor being the largest city in Canada by a good margin. It really doesn't have a national rival the way the other two cities do.
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