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View Poll Results: Biggest by 2035-2040
SF Bay Area 21 27.27%
NCR DC Area 16 20.78%
Chicagoland 21 27.27%
Toronto's Golden Horseshoe 19 24.68%
Voters: 77. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-14-2013, 01:27 AM
 
Location: Nob Hill, San Francisco, CA
2,342 posts, read 3,989,552 times
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In population.

CSA to CSA's.

Right now

Chicagoland 9,899,902
NCR DC region 9,331,587
Golden Horseshoe Toronto 8,918,733
SF Bay Area 8,370,967

Let's factor this without taking in Milwaukee and Sacramento, etc big cities nearby. By natural increase, immigration, migration, etc.

Last edited by scrantiX; 08-14-2013 at 01:56 AM..
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Old 08-14-2013, 01:41 AM
 
Location: Los Altos Hills, CA
36,656 posts, read 67,506,468 times
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It all depends on the economic conditions in these areas.

The most current estimates are that DC is growing by 1.5% annually, the Bay Area is growing by 1.3% annually and Chicagoland by 0.3% annually.

DCs economy has been slipping lately so it's hard to say.

But I do find it very intriguing that the 2 most expensive MSAs in Nor Cal are now the fastest growing in Nor Cal, due to the booming economy.
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Old 08-14-2013, 01:51 AM
 
Location: Nob Hill, San Francisco, CA
2,342 posts, read 3,989,552 times
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Chicago's only 100k away from surpassing 10M as it is, IMO I see all 4 being able to pass 10M easily by then without adding any areas.

TBH, I wish we wouldnt have to deal with megacity problems. I plan on living here forever and the traffic will be a nightmare in 20-30 years..
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Old 08-14-2013, 02:38 AM
 
6,843 posts, read 10,961,697 times
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- Toronto's Golden Horseshoe is projected to reach 12 million by 2035.

- Chicagoland's current state lends it a population of 11 million by 2035.

- DMV's current state lends it a population of 12 million by 2035.

- Bay Area's current state lends it a population of 10.5 million by 2035.

Honestly though, projecting beyond 10 years span is erroneous. Too many things can and will change in a long term scenario. We don't even know the current state of Chicagoland and DMV in 2013, Chicagoland's posted improvement in it's economy while the DMV's seen a cool off. Don't know yet on how that will affect their annual growth and by how much exactly. Also don't know what state Toronto's housing market is going in right now, there's a lot of confusion regarding the demand market presently and we wont know for up to another year. As well as the fact that the Bay Area rides the highs and lows of the technology boom, we don't even know how long that will go on yet.

It's year to year basis for progress for all four of these cities honestly.

Wont know until 2014 either way. However, the four places with these current boundaries and definitions, I agree with one of the above posters, under these definitions it will be far too easy becoming a megacity (10 million - 19,999,999). Which will give North America four megacities and three hypercities, total of seven above 10 million. Again with this current definition, I suppose.
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Old 08-14-2013, 04:18 AM
 
2,502 posts, read 3,374,430 times
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My guess is that by no later than 2020, the massive federal bureaucracy will be forced into shrinking and DC will see a much-deserved recession.

Toronto, not sure. Most of the growth there has been international migration, too hard to predict if that will continue.

Anti-growth initiatives in the Bay Area will increase the already astronomical cost of living and really don't see it growing.

By 2030, Chicago and Milwaukee will merge and be considered a mega-region of 13 million plus.
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Old 08-14-2013, 04:54 AM
 
381 posts, read 814,222 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midwest1 View Post
My guess is that by no later than 2020, the massive federal bureaucracy will be forced into shrinking and DC will see a much-deserved recession.

Toronto, not sure. Most of the growth there has been international migration, too hard to predict if that will continue.

Anti-growth initiatives in the Bay Area will increase the already astronomical cost of living and really don't see it growing.

By 2030, Chicago and Milwaukee will merge and be considered a mega-region of 13 million plus.
Seriously?

What kind of person wishes a recession? On anybody?

I understand it has become a conservative mantra to villify DC as a leach on the rest of the country. But its a uniquely American thought process. I don't think another culture views its capital the way we do. I know some think we are more enlightened, but truthfully, we need to realize that we are the ones backwards in our thinking.
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:46 AM
 
Location: The City
22,378 posts, read 38,910,924 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dcsfanatic View Post
Seriously?

What kind of person wishes a recession? On anybody?

I understand it has become a conservative mantra to villify DC as a leach on the rest of the country. But its a uniquely American thought process. I don't think another culture views its capital the way we do. I know some think we are more enlightened, but truthfully, we need to realize that we are the ones backwards in our thinking.
Agree totally, I by no means wish a recession on anyplace. Can the stimulas to the area maintian, a fair question but to wish a recession, well that is silly. Personally I hope for a right sizing in Gov't size but also hope there is no impact to a place or it's people.

Now the flip side on the growth in DC is to personalize the positives when the growth is subsidized but even said I wish no personal harm on anyone there nor the future of the DC economy
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:48 AM
 
Location: The City
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On this topic I would probably say Chicago or Toronto as they are more purely single entities. DC with Baltimore or extending out of the inner Bay to me are less cohesive as a single entity
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Old 08-14-2013, 06:50 AM
 
Location: BMORE!
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The Baltimore CSA
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Old 08-14-2013, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Milwaukee
1,312 posts, read 2,168,802 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dcsfanatic View Post
Seriously?

What kind of person wishes a recession? On anybody?

I understand it has become a conservative mantra to villify DC as a leach on the rest of the country. But its a uniquely American thought process. I don't think another culture views its capital the way we do. I know some think we are more enlightened, but truthfully, we need to realize that we are the ones backwards in our thinking.
Very much agreed on your recession point. I'm afraid you need to get out more regarding the rest of your post, though. People in nearly every country hate their capital city to varying degrees, many of which are much more extreme than ours.
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