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Sorry, I have to disagree. There are only two factors that have any sort of relevance in this matter. Population verse number of murders. You are 4 times more likely to be murdered in St. Louis than Phoenix according to those stats. To me, it's very simple. It doesn't have anything to do with land area or the suburbs. Just the city proper.
Actually it has everything to do with it. Have you been to Phoenix? 95% of the city proper IS a suburb. That's what happens when you draw your boundries more than 500 miles in circumference.
I completely agree with which ever poster, either QCP or jstn, that said if you draw a 500 mile radius around St. Louis, it's numbers wold look similar to Phoenix's, as St.Louis is surround by many very safe suburbs. Then and only then would you be able to actually compare.
You say it's very simple, you are right, it is. Phoenix, because of their large land mass, contains more than 1 million suburbanites within city proper. St. Louis, because of it's smaller land mass, does not, those suburbanites that Phoenix gets to claim, register under different municipalities in the St. Louis area. Yes, that is simple to figure why one murder rate looks so much better than the other.
I actually have a minor in Urban Planning and have studied this topic in great depth and I can onestly say, QCP and JSTN, your rationale is accurate in most cases, but at this point I don't think some of these other guys are going to get it. Good Luck.
To a point you are correct. Number don't lie.
But...it's not fair to label certain cities as dangerous because they encompass smaller land masses, more density and as a percentage to a larger land mass, include less desireable nieghborhoods along with poorer families. The city of Dallas has a larger population than St. Louis for one reason only, because the Dallas has a larger land mass.
You are correct. That is also why there is such a drastic difference in murder rates.
The rates are based on population.
A cities population to a certain extent is based on it's land mass.
St. Louis city = 61 sq. mi w/ 350,000 residents
Dallas city = 385 sq. mi. w/ 1,260,000
The city of Dallas has what in St. Louis are called suburbs.
So...if you add St. Louis county to the city, you have 586 sq. mi. w/ 1,375,000 residents.
The rates then become almost equal.
The rates are based on population.
A cities population to a certain extent is based on it's land mass.
St. Louis city = 61 sq. mi w/ 350,000 residents
Dallas city = 385 sq. mi. w/ 1,260,000 The city of Dallas has what in St. Louis are called suburbs.
So...if you add St. Louis county to the city, you have 586 sq. mi. w/ 1,375,000 residents.
The rates then become almost equal.
Great job with the numbers. That is exactly what some of on here are trying to point out.
Actually it has everything to do with it. Have you been to Phoenix? 95% of the city proper IS a suburb. That's what happens when you draw your boundries more than 500 miles in circumference.
I completely agree with which ever poster, either QCP or jstn, that said if you draw a 500 mile radius around St. Louis, it's numbers wold look similar to Phoenix's, as St.Louis is surround by many very safe suburbs. Then and only then would you be able to actually compare.
You say it's very simple, you are right, it is. Phoenix, because of their large land mass, contains more than 1 million suburbanites within city proper. St. Louis, because of it's smaller land mass, does not, those suburbanites that Phoenix gets to claim, register under different municipalities in the St. Louis area. Yes, that is simple to figure why one murder rate looks so much better than the other.
I actually have a minor in Urban Planning and have studied this topic in great depth and I can onestly say, QCP and JSTN, your rationale is accurate in most cases, but at this point I don't think some of these other guys are going to get it. Good Luck.
I don't care if you have a major in Urban Planning (no offense), but you are just plain wrong. Land boundaries do not matter.
If you are comparing two cities of similar population and one has a murder rate 4 times higher, naturally you are 4 times more likely to be murdered in that given city. I can't even believe we are having this little debate. Numbers simply do not lie. If Phoenix wants to draw their land boundaries all the way up to Idaho the same logic exists. You are 4 times more likely to die a violent death in St. Louis.
You simply cannot argue per capita numbers and I really wish people would stop trying to justify St. Louis's murder rate.
The rates are based on population.
A cities population to a certain extent is based on it's land mass.
St. Louis city = 61 sq. mi w/ 350,000 residents
Dallas city = 385 sq. mi. w/ 1,260,000
The city of Dallas has what in St. Louis are called suburbs.
So...if you add St. Louis county to the city, you have 586 sq. mi. w/ 1,375,000 residents.
The rates then become almost equal.
well lets only compare 61 sq miles of Phoenix then from the central core and I still bet the murder numbers are alot less than St.Louis
and unfortuantly for St.Louis the city limits are small and the crime is bad so the stats really matter for the people who live in ST.LOUIS and not ST.LOUIS suburbs.
if you live in St.Louis city limits you are more likely to be a murder victim than in the city limits of Phoenix. If you were to add in the suburbs of Phoenix than the murder rate would decline even more.
The physical size of a city IS NOT any reason to cite as an excuse for the difference in safety...Detroit (143 sq mi) Baltimore (92 sq mi) Philadelphia (135 sq mi) Milwaukee (97 sq mi) Columbus (212 sq mi) New Orleans (350 sq mi) Memphis (313 sq mi) etc. etc. etc. - all "older" cities covering larger areas than Cincinatti that STILL have very high murder rates per 100,000 residents. Explain that?
They just don't get it. If we are speaking of the safety of a city proper, you simply go by violent crime numbers for a given number of residents. That will tell you how likely you are to be a victim of violent crime plain and simple.
2004
Phoenix metro murder rate = 8.0
St. Louis metro = 7.6
Here is a nice little crime rate chart to help you with. (this one from 2008)
Fwiw, I don't care which city has a higher crime rate, I'm simply pointing out land area is an arbitrary factor.
Crime RATE: The rate is a calculation of how likely you are to be a victim in a given population. (I don't know how many times I have to say that)
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