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Ok... I thought of a bold scenario last year, that came to fruition. Time to do it again...
Who plays in the Natty if: K-State, Oregon, & ND ALL lose a game?
The winner of SEC title game will certainly be the one of the teams in the Natty given that scenaro and the current BCS rankings... which most likely means UGA or Bama.
If that happens which 1 loss team should be their opponent? I think several teams could have a case
K-State
Oregon
ND
Florida/FSU winner
Clemson (if they beat South Carolina)
If you look at the current BCS standings... Florida would have the best chance given the fact they could also get another victory over a top 10 BCS team in Florida State and their loss is to a top 5 team on a neutral site.
So their could be a possiblity of Florida actually making the title game... meaning 2 SEC teams could play in the Natty again!!!
It's a long shot... And I am not predicting this will happen. But if the scenario above played out, it will certainly be a possibility.
What if a demoralized Bama team lose to an Auburn in the Iron Bowl? then A&M faces UGA in the SEC title game. What if they beat UGA?
Right now, LSU would get the nod over A&M, I think, wouldn't they? If Alabama chokes -- which absolutely won't happen by the way -- I believe LSU would play Georgia in a rematch.
But like I said...won't happen. Auburn has quit on Chizzy.
Yeah, Auburn is ripe for the picking right now...I agree that they have quit on Chizzy. Since Auburn looks so bad right now, I have a hard time believing that Bama wouldnt want to rub it in...
I would say if all three of the top teams lose a game they're all gone from the discussion. Not that they wouldn't be deserving it's just hard to overcome such a late season loss and lets be honest the pollsters are itching to put SEC teams in the NCG.
I would say if all three of the top teams lose a game they're all gone from the discussion. Not that they wouldn't be deserving it's just hard to overcome such a late season loss and lets be honest the pollsters are itching to put SEC teams in the NCG.
I've been thinking about this a little more... and I think Oregon or K-State could possibly survive. Well K-State only survives if its Texas. Oregon has 3 top opponents still left. ND would definitely be out if they lose.
I think Oregon and K-State may survive mainly because they are so high in the BCS and their losses would be to other ranked teams in the BCS. So it would just come down to which loss is better in comparison to Florida. I think Oregon would ultimately win out though.
Here is a good article breaking down all the different factors in determining who should play for Natty out of the current bunch. K-State was never the advantage. That does not bode well for them... especially if they lose.
RANKED TEAMS PLAYED/SCHEDULED Oregon: 5 Notre Dame: 5 Kansas State: 4 Alabama: 4 Analysis: The Irish and Wildcats share signature wins against Oklahoma, and both have one ranked opponent remaining. Notre Dame travels to No. 21 USC on Nov. 24; Kansas State hosts No. 18 Texas on Dec. 1. Alabama doesn’t have a ranked opponent left but could potentially face No. 5 Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide have faced four ranked teams; none ranked lower than No. 15. Oregon plays No. 14 Stanford and No. 15 Oregon State and potentially a ranked opponent in the Pac-12 championship. Those conference championships make a difference. Advantage: Alabama and Oregon.
RECORD OF OPPONENTS PLAYED Alabama: 57-43, .570 Notre Dame: 54-45, .546 Kansas State: 49-48, .505 Oregon: 48-54, .471 Analysis: The SEC trump card has value. Alabama played three consecutive ranked opponents and didn’t even have Georgia, No. 6 Florida or No. 9 South Carolina on the regular-season schedule. That’s why a potential matchup with the Bulldogs is huge. Notre Dame has wins against four ranked teams but has also played four teams with 5-5 records or worse. Still, the overall winning percentage of the Irish’s opponents, including upcoming opponents, is .555, best among this group. Kansas is the only conference team with a losing record Kansas State has faced. The best ranked team Oregon played is three-loss USC. Advantage: Alabama and Notre Dame.
If the season were to end today, my top two would be Kansas State and Oregon, without hesitation. It doesn't matter whether a team from the SEC *could* beat any of these teams; what matters is which team is most deserving, and you can't make an argument for a one loss team over an undefeated team unless that team plays a really suspect schedule (a la Houston or Louisville).
If one of those two teams loses, I would support Notre Dame getting the next BCS promotion, as they would be the only remaining unbeaten. However, they are clearly the odd man out in a field of undefeated teams, and they deserve to be for one reason: one of their wins came in OT against a pretty mediocre opponent in Pitt. Yes, a win is a win, but if you're going to compare the three, you have to go with the two teams that have taken care of business in the first 60 minutes of play over the team that struggled and needed a comeback win in OT. In a contest in which we're trying to find ways to differentiate teams, I think that's a reasonable proposition.
In short, we have three tiers of teams at the moment:
- Two teams (Oregon and KSU) who have won all games in regulation time.
- One team that is undefeated but needed one game in extra time.
- Two or three teams from a historically strong conference but who have one loss.
I'm not a conference homer. I do agree that right now, there's no argument for an SEC team in the BCS game. However, if two of the top three teams fall and end up with even one loss, then I think it's only fair to take into consideration the history of the BCS and how those conferences have performed. The Southeastern Conference *should* get the benefit of the doubt until a team from another conference can defeat an elite SEC team in a BCS game.
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