As good as it gets?

[TCHP]

We don't know where we are yet on the infection curve. Eastern nations have been able to create some containment of the outbreak to an extent because they have a very cooperative citizenship that will comply with the quarantine. The US does not have this same mindset so our infection rate could soar drastically in a short time with very acute conditions that could potentially overwhelm the response capability.

We also have a range of mortality that is not consistent across the age brackets so while a large percentage of the global population may get infected, the death rate may not be consistently reflected by the infection rate.

[Vision67]

My Prediction: The top was April 1, 2020

On Friday, new unemployment data will come out. It will be downhill for 2 years.

What do you think?

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by Vision67

My Prediction: The top was April 1, 2020

On Friday, new unemployment data will come out. It will be downhill for 2 years.

What do you think?

This is the million dollar question. I do think Wall Street has gotten ahead of itself, but I don't think the unemployment figures tomorrow will be a big tipping point. The market has rallied on pretty much every weekly jobs report day, and all of those have been worse than expected. I think we are more likely to see a drop from Q2 earnings reports, data showing that these "openings" aren't really much of a return to normal or evidence that openings are causing the virus to surge.

I think two years is a bit long. We should have news regarding a vaccine long before that, and Wall Street is very forward-looking. I'm 50/50 on whether we see another drop or we see sideways action for the foreseeable future. There's certainly limited upside, though.