Will Columbus become largest Ohio metro? (Cleveland, Cincinnati: safest, deal, money)

[Cbus76]

The number I saw from MORPC (Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission) was growth of 726,000 by 2050. That would be more in line with Columbus' MSA growth over the last three decades (1990-2000 was +207,000, 2000-2010 was +289,000, and 2010-2020 was +237,000). Obviously Intel will be a major factor in growth that could speed things up, but that remains to be seen. Might have a better idea in 10 years.

[Nailerman9192]

Originally Posted by WRnative

If you read and absorb the discussions in the climate change thread, I personally, and regretfully, wouldn't be surprised to see the entire population of the state of Ohio more than double by 2050. Unfortunately, the quality of life in Ohio will decline, but much less so than in many other states.


https://www.city-data.com/forum/ohio...tion-ohio.html


Areas with Lake Erie water supplies likely will grow the fastest. Ashtabula County may be the biggest sleeper. If I were to bet on the county with the highest percentage of population growth from 2025 to 2050, I would bet on Ashtabula County, much more than on Franklin County and Columbus, where further rapid population growth, combined with climate change, may create water supply issues.


As Cleveland has lost more than half of its peak population since 2050, it has the infrastructure to accommodate a massive increase in population more than other major Ohio cities.

You really think climate change is going to do that? I think my city, Wheeling, WV is the perfect size and location to capitalize. We once had 61,000 people in the city. I’m not sure how well maintained the infrastructure is to handle a repopulation. Same thing with Cleveland. The infrastructure supported a lot more residents, but that was decades ago, was it even well maintained enough?

I’d love to see people stop choosing places like swampy Florida. It’s a horrible place to live given the state of climate change, but we continue to rebuild these places. A family friend has a condo on one of the beaches where Ian hit. The beach is gone and it basically carved out a valley filled with water to the gulf. The condo owners are paying 90,000 to fill it with sand and try to bring it back. They haven’t even started working on the building which all had to be gutted down to the structure and metal studs. It’s such a waste of money but as long as we keep allowing money to be spent there ti build I don’t see your prediction coming true.

Originally Posted by Cbus76

The number I saw from MORPC (Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission) was growth of 726,000 by 2050. That would be more in line with Columbus' MSA growth over the last three decades (1990-2000 was +207,000, 2000-2010 was +289,000, and 2010-2020 was +237,000). Obviously Intel will be a major factor in growth that could speed things up, but that remains to be seen. Might have a better idea in 10 years.

It’s going to speed it up and draw from regional cities that don’t have as robust as an economy. It’s like the article I read. Ohio is a tale of two states. The Columbus metro and then the rest of the state. They couldn’t be on more opposite paths. A bright spot outside of Cbus is Cincinnati. Aside from that I don’t see much more hope for everywhere else.

[nadnerb]

Originally Posted by WRnative

If you read and absorb the discussions in the climate change thread, I personally, and regretfully, wouldn't be surprised to see the entire population of the state of Ohio more than double by 2050. Unfortunately, the quality of life in Ohio will decline, but much less so than in many other states.

This is delusional. You seriously think Ohio is going to grow by at least 27% every decade? It hasn’t managed to grow more than 5% since the 70s. My prediction is that by 2050, Ohio will have 1 million more than if it does now. It might pass 13 million if it’s lucky.

[midwest1]

Speaking of H2O.... Middletown, and Dayton and Hamilton, Great Miami River cities....sit atop one of the nations great aquifers .

https://www.mcdwater.org/what-is-an-aquifer/

[Nailerman9192]

Originally Posted by nadnerb

This is delusional. You seriously think Ohio is going to grow by at least 27% every decade? It hasn’t managed to grow more than 5% since the 70s. My prediction is that by 2050, Ohio will have 1 million more than if it does now. It might pass 13 million if it’s lucky.

I’m skeptical of that too. Columbus may very well have 3 million residents in the metro, but the rest of the state is losing so much combined. I just don’t see the other places growing that much. It would have to do a complete 180.

Climate change isn’t going to stop people from moving to the coast or west. People will pay whatever to have warm weather, live on a coast or in the desert.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by nadnerb

This is delusional. You seriously think Ohio is going to grow by at least 27% every decade? It hasn’t managed to grow more than 5% since the 70s. My prediction is that by 2050, Ohio will have 1 million more than if it does now. It might pass 13 million if it’s lucky.

Delusional?


As I said, read the climate change thread. The grim reality is well documented. You apparently don't think increasing atmospheric temperatures, shrinking water supplies, rapidly accelerating sea level rise, and much more, will impact the desirability of living in significant areas of the nation, especially ocean coastal areas, by 2050? If so, you ignore not only the warnings of climate scientists, but also increasingly empirical reality.


Read through the threads detailing the residential insurance crisis in the Florida forum, just for starters.



Also, the U.S. is just beginning to face the realities imposed by its massive debt burdens, and yet we spend hundreds of billions annually on "resiliency" projects to adapt to climate change impacts disproportionately in certain states. Why are we subsidizing FEMA flood insurance, spending any federal money "refreshing" ocean beaches, spending federal money attempting to manage shrinking water supplies in the West, increasingly spending hundreds of billions in the aftermath of escalating natural disasters (Florida is effectively mandating flood insurance)?


What happens when the federal government no longer can fund these massive "resiliency" needs? Ohio is massively short-changed on infrastructure spending already on a per capita basis, but Ohioans continue to vote for politicians who support federal resiliency projects that should be paid for by local taxpayers, just as Ohioans largely bear the burden of living with snowfalls, although decreasing, and the massive costs resulting from the annual freeze/thaw cycle.


When states such as Florida and Texas are forced to raise taxes to adapt to climate change, will persons still be willing to ignore an increasingly downgraded environment? Additionally, at some point soon, the U.S. will be forced to massively reduce fossil fuel consumption in order to check the existential threat represented by climate change. Texas no longer will be able to live off severance taxes from fossil fuel production.


Check out Florida's historical population at Wikipedia. Florida's population more than doubled between 1950 and 1970. Massive population shifts are nothing new in U.S. history.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida


Have you followed the fuel shortages in southeast Florida as a result of massive flooding impacting port supplies? How attractive will coastal areas remain with largely inundated beaches and once beautiful coastal nature preserves? How will coastal areas deal with increased flooding, and impaired fresh water supplies and sewage removal?

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by Nailerman9192

I’m skeptical of that too. Columbus may very well have 3 million residents in the metro, but the rest of the state is losing so much combined. I just don’t see the other places growing that much. It would have to do a complete 180.

Climate change isn’t going to stop people from moving to the coast or west. People will pay whatever to have warm weather, live on a coast or in the desert.

Is the rest of the state losing so much combined?

Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Cleveland CSAs are all growing. Youngstown and Toledo CSAs are strinking. Toledo's is a small decline, only Youngstown is major. It's also by far the smallest.

[Nailerman9192]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Is the rest of the state losing so much combined?

Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Cleveland CSAs are all growing. Youngstown and Toledo CSAs are strinking. Toledo's is a small decline, only Youngstown is major. It's also by far the smallest.

Over 100,000 residents lost outside of the Columbus metro. It’s a tale of two Ohios. Ohio would’ve lost the most population in the country if it wasn’t for Columbus.

I like the wishful thinking that it will change due to climate extremes. I just don’t believe it will happen. Too many people want to live in these warm areas that don’t have drinking water or risk being wiped out by tropical storms. Until the money stops flowing and lending to build and move there it will continue.

Columbus is probably going to have over 3 million people in the metro and the state population ends up around 12.5 to 13 million. A population that consolidates around the center of the state while everything around it declines and dies off. The huge gains in Columbus will be a wash with the huge declines in the rest of the state.

https://www.greaterohio.org/blog/202...tes?format=amp

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by Nailerman9192

Over 100,000 residents lost outside of the Columbus metro. It’s a tale of two Ohios. Ohio would’ve lost the most population in the country if it wasn’t for Columbus.

I like the wishful thinking that it will change due to climate extremes. I just don’t believe it will happen. Too many people want to live in these warm areas that don’t have drinking water or risk being wiped out by tropical storms. Until the money stops flowing and lending to build and move there it will continue.

Columbus is probably going to have over 3 million people in the metro and the state population ends up around 12.5 to 13 million. A population that consolidates around the center of the state while everything around it declines and dies off. The huge gains in Columbus will be a wash with the huge declines in the rest of the state.

https://www.greaterohio.org/blog/202...tes?format=amp

This is not actually logical. Lots of people move to Columbus from other places in Ohio (almost all). Ohio would not have shrunk without Columbus. They would have largely stayed where they were.

Columbus will not have 3 million people in its MSA. It's grown by 1 million since 1970. Do you really think it's going to grow by another million in like the next 10 or 20 years? Columbus people need to get a grip. Trends reverse, sometimes quickly and spectacularly. Cbus lacks basically everything great cities have so I'm not really seeing it.

[Nailerman9192]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

This is not actually logical. Lots of people move to Columbus from other places in Ohio (almost all). Ohio would not have shrunk without Columbus. They would have largely stayed where they were.

Columbus will not have 3 million people in its MSA. It's grown by 1 million since 1970. Do you really think it's going to grow by another million in like the next 10 or 20 years? Columbus people need to get a grip. Trends reverse, sometimes quickly and spectacularly. Cbus lacks basically everything great cities have so I'm not really seeing it.

It’s on that path yes. Columbus is going to grow that big. It has the jobs and the opportunities.

So I did some figuring on the current vs peak census numbers for all big cities in Ohio (minus Columbus) as well as other rust belt cities. The cities that have the highest percentage of their peak population still in the city limits from most to least. It may surprise you.

1. Toledo 70% of peak population
2. Erie, PA 68%
3. Akron 66%
4. Cincinnati 61%
5. Canton 60%
6. Dayton 53%
7. Buffalo, NY 48%
8. Pittsburgh, PA 45%
9. Wheeling, WV 44%
10. Cleveland 41%
11. Tie: Detroit, MI and Youngstown 35%

You wanna turn the population around in those cities. Gotta do it with job growth and opportunities for people to make money.