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Old 02-26-2014, 03:32 AM
 
97 posts, read 97,444 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malamute View Post
It doesn't make sense to burn your own cities for that.

Riots are interesting -- and it would be interesting to ask many individuals in the mobs exactly why they are doing what they are doing -- probably many are just stirred up by some leader and they didn't have much else to do with their time.
That's American mentality. Go to work and nothing changes while life around you declines

Cities and buildings can be rebuilt. But which direction Ukraine takes will effect future generations.
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Old 02-27-2014, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Kennedy Heights, Ohio. USA
3,862 posts, read 3,140,061 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by malamute View Post
It doesn't make sense to burn your own cities for that.

Riots are interesting -- and it would be interesting to ask many individuals in the mobs exactly why they are doing what they are doing -- probably many are just stirred up by some leader and they didn't have much else to do with their time.
The most violent demonstrators in the crowd are well organized nationalist militants intent on seizing power with the purpose of creating a ethnic Ukraine void of Russian influence economically and culturally by any means necessary (non violent or violent). Hence the reason for destruction is the overthrow of the present administration and replacing it with an administration more suited to follow their vision of how Ukraine should be in the future. The non violent demonstrators who probably makes up the majority of the protesters are fed up with the corruption and thievery of the politician-oligarchy class that controls the government. They are not as concerned about establishing an all ethnic Ukrainian nation intent on removing all things relating to Russia but on removing all things relating to corruption and repression. Unfortunately Russia and corruption/repression seems to be synonymous terms at the present moment in the minds of many Ukrainians. This is why they have an obvious distaste for inclusion in a Russian dominated Eurasian currency union at the expense of ties and future with the European Union. The core nations of the EU has some of the highest standards of living in the world and EU nations is seen as more free and open democracies that many Ukrainians want that as the future for their children and nation as well.
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Old 02-28-2014, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
4,537 posts, read 12,397,477 times
Reputation: 6280
Quote:
Originally Posted by Woozle View Post
I doubt the East-West division is going to be an issue in the near future. Neither Russia nor Europe seem to be interested in splitting up the Ukraine, for now, and there is more separatist hot air coming from some activists in the East than there is popular outrage. Crimea may be the one exception, but Russia again is not interested in taking control over it. Sevastopol will be placated and "pacified" soon, but with little to no violence so as not to provoke Russia.
As of the past 24 hours, Russia may be attempting a partition of the Crimea from Ukraine. Armed, professional caliber groups of unknown origin appear to have occupied the airports and blocked border crossings in Crimea. And Russia has always been very much interested in taking control over it. So, the reconstruction of the Greater Russian Fatherland is moving apace. I guess they need living space.
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Old 02-28-2014, 11:17 AM
 
7,280 posts, read 10,943,455 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Woozle View Post
I doubt the East-West division is going to be an issue in the near future. Neither Russia nor Europe seem to be interested in splitting up the Ukraine, for now, and there is more separatist hot air coming from some activists in the East than there is popular outrage. Crimea may be the one exception, but Russia again is not interested in taking control over it. Sevastopol will be placated and "pacified" soon, but with little to no violence so as not to provoke Russia.

Now, here are the problems. Two powerful fractions came to power as a result of the Maidan uprising: the Oligarchy and the Ukrainian Nationalists (I'll call them the Neo-Nazis, from now on: to see why anything else would be misleading, acquaint yourself with the history of the Svoboda party - the second major party of the Opposition - and the Right Sector, the well-armed brownshirt brigades that currently patrol the streets of Kiev and western Ukrainian cities).

But the dominant party of the Opposition is the Fatherland party, lead by Julia Tymoshenko (anyone interested in Ukrainian politics should acquaint himself with her very checkered past). It is the party of the Oligarchy that Yanukovich managed to alienate over the course of his presidency. It is the party of the owners of the press and of the industrial infrastructure left over from the Soviet days and stolen by the oligarchs in the heady 1990's (with Tymoshenko being one of them). They felt Yanukovich was a threat (when he imprisoned Tymoshenko and started to "expropriate the expropriators", turning his son and Serhiy Kurchenko, his son's shady 28-year-friend into billionaires over the course of a few years), so they turned against him, including those who financed his election back in 2010. They pandered to the Ukrainian Nationalists, to Western Ukraine, but this is pure cynical political pandering: most of the Oligarchs and the Fatherland party leadership are from the East, very few of them are native Ukrainian speakers, only a minority of them are ethnic Ukrainians.

This is the fraction that the US and Europe backed when they started throwing gasoline into the Ukrainian fire. The calculation was that it would be nothing more than a repeat of the Orange Revolution, which brought Yuschenko and Tymoshenko to power, and everyone went home. The problem is, this time there were the Neo-Nazis. The Neo-Nazis, though weak overall (Svoboda gets about 10% of the national vote in national elections, meaning around 25-30% in the western regions, much less so in central regions and virtually none in the east and south), are militant, exceedingly well organized and are lead by fairly intelligent people. Currently, the Ukrainian police is demoralized, the special forces (Berkut) were disbanded under the pressure of the Neo-Nazi fraction, and the party of the Oligarchy is as weak, purely in the sense of the number of people with guns they have at their disposal, as Yanukovich was the day of his flight. The Neo-Nazis, though their brownshirt brigades are relatively few in number, at the most a few thousand people nationwide, are armed, unified, motivated, and militant. They control Kiev, as the local police is disorganized and scared of repressions (some Berkut officers were executed on the spot when caught, most others are on the run or hiding and waiting to be arrested, which was a brilliant strategic move by the Neo-Nazis at demoralizing the police).

The Oligarchy may try to use the army to put down the Maidan rebellion and the Right Sector brigades (with the West press hailing it this time as victory over counter-revolutionaires and terrorists, even though it will be largely the same people getting mowed down that Yanukovych tried to remove), but this creates the possibility of a military coup and other unpredictable and unpleasant consequences.

And so, there is a stand-off. Neo-Nazis versus the Oligarchs. The Neo-Nazis will not leave the Maidan, even when the common people, disillusioned and bitter over what they have wrought, will, and so it'll be interesting to see how it will play out.

I predict that the Oligarchy will win and disperse the neo-Nazis without having to share power. Tymoshenko already ruled as Prime Minister for most of 2005-2010, so Ukrainians know what to expect in theory (not much, business as usual), but unfortunately the IMF loan conditions and the inerasable mark on Ukraine - "Politically Unstable. Dangerous for Private Property" - will finish off what's left of the Ukrainian economy until the next election cycle, after which either a dictatorship will have to be declared, or massive voting fraud perpetrated, or the new Rada (Parliament) will be made up largely of Neo-Nazis from the West and Communists and Separatists from the East. This will lead to a non-functional Parliament and either the end of Ukraine as a single country, or the end of democracy in the country.

And yes, most Maidan rioters only wanted to protest the extreme corruption, oligarchic thievery and poverty in the Ukraine. What they brought upon themselves is the destruction of the Ukrainian economy and quite likely of Ukraine itself. Kinda similar to Russia in 1917, which makes their ongoing destruction of Lenin statutes ironic on quite a few levels.
Should be a sticky on this thread.
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Old 02-28-2014, 05:56 PM
 
Location: Southwestern, USA, now.
21,020 posts, read 19,363,451 times
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Putin's really done it now...sending in the troops with unmarked trucks and uniforms!
Now a warning from Pres. Obama. Today...
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