Is DFW really worth the "new prices"...and how sustainable is all of this multi-family housing? (Plano: apartment, rental)

[iberanon]

Originally Posted by EDS_

Yes you have (it's really easy to look up old posts by poster here) and show me some wide ranging hard data buttressing your claim. That kind of thing is absolutely not happening in my part of town. I'll grant there was a bit of a swoon during the election but nothing like broad 20% price reductions.

Stalker much. It definitely has fallen, right on redfin. It always falls during winter though, so will need spring summer to confirm.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by iberanon

I've been looking at plano 400-500k houses, and the price has fallen quite a bit from last years peak. The proof will be this spring/summer.

You are wrong.

Just flat out wrong.

If you've seen a house price slashed on ONE house, that is not a barometer for the rest of the market. There are plenty of cases where a seller has overvalued their home or their realtor is being wildly optimistic. In an upwardly trending market, it's fairly commonplace for sellers to want to price their home where they think it will be in 6 months or a year's time.

Problem is, you can't do that. You have to price it with what the market will bear NOW.

At any rate, there isn't a single area of Plano that has experienced broad price declines. Not one. It's been hot even in the "off" season for selling homes.

[lepoisson]

Originally Posted by CREW747

The lack of scenery here bothers us more than the weather...We visit Tennesee yearly and have spent a lot of time in the Nashville suburbs.That is our idea of a perfect climate and great scenery.As of now,there are still many other reasons why we prefer to live here,but like I had said when I started this thread,I am starting to question the direction that this area is going in.


I really hope that the mass amount of multi-family housing going up everywhere around North Texas is sustainable long-term...

I agree about the lack of scenery. Every time I go visit family in NC, I remember how much I miss trees and other nature.

But I guess that's what is so nice about the US. There's a place for everyone. DFW isn't the place for me, so I'm moving to a place that is for me.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by iberanon

Stalker much. It definitely has fallen, right on redfin. It always falls during winter though, so will need spring summer to confirm.

As expected no real data. Just a bogus story.

[Rakin]

Originally Posted by iberanon

Stalker much. It definitely has fallen, right on redfin. It always falls during winter though, so will need spring summer to confirm.

Redfin as your source ? LOL

[Johnhw2]

Originally Posted by EDS_

Corporate, regional and sectional HQs definitely offer outsized numbers of base jobs.
Base, primary, driver, proto jobs etc. all legit terms and no question these jobs generally pay well, they are more recession resistant than the average job, monies for salaries and whatnot tend to come from elsewhere, and they drive significant ancillary job creation. Toyota is a driving a $7 billion near immediate economic impact on North Texas/Plano and that is just the beginning. It's brining several dozen small companies with it all which pay very well and will add to the whatever the intellectual aggregate is around here.

You aren't talking about Harvey Rosenblum are you? Harvey is kicking it over at SMU nowadays. Harvey ran the economic research team at The Dallas Fed. for a couple of decades.

Thanks, I was talking about Bill Gilmer, who was the research guy in Houston for the Dallas Fed. I think he is in Dallas now. A UH Professor, Barton Smith, who was the first to correctly call the deep recession in Houston when oil prices plunged in the early to mid 80s, was another economist I had breakfast with monthly along with Bill. I was planning and financial head for a large oil owned Real Estate development company during this part of my career. We used these guys to help us predict the longer run economy for Houston as we developed large scale MPCs among other product types. Both these guys are PhD. Economist if I recall correctly,

[Johnhw2]

Originally Posted by Katana49

Correct. But there is no standard multiplier for a base job. I've seen studies where oil/gas extraction jobs have a multiplier of ~7. Others, like some types of manufacturing, can be 3-5, depending on area and industry. As far as Toyota goes, my guess is that each job brought here will result in probably 6-7 more additional jobs in support. That will include business partners which work directly with Toyota, down to the construction workers hired to build new homes in the area to accommodate them and the additional police officers hired to ticket them as they all commute to work.

Service jobs typically have the lowest multiplier, regardless of area.

Thanks the multiplier I was remembering excluded the one time construction of the facility jobs and focused on long term employment driven by the base jobs Toyota brings. The multiplier I recall was something like 2.6 ancillary jobs for base or Toyota type job brought in. This multiplier ignored jobs that are base and come to DFW area because Toyota is here but are not direct Toyota jobs, which could be significant as Toyota is bringing an operating entity HQ here which does work directly with other suppliers and vendors on regionally funded jobs. The number of these jobs varies by company and each situation is different I suspect. For example I saw a mention in the DBJ I believe that claimed ExxonMobil HQ coming did not bring vendors with them which makes sense they are a smaller senior holding company where the large decisions are made by proposals brought forth by the 10 operating companies all now HQ globally in Houston, well just north of Houston really near the Woodlands (near by not in the Woodlands).

The point I was making is these Toyota jobs are a bigger economic impact then just the 4 or 5k jobs Toyota is bringing to the West Legacy campus they have built.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Johnhw2

Thanks, I was talking about Bill Gilmer, who was the research guy in Houston for the Dallas Fed. I think he is in Dallas now. A UH Professor, Barton Smith, who was the first to correctly call the deep recession in Houston when oil prices plunged in the early to mid 80s, was another economist I had breakfast with monthly along with Bill. I was planning and financial head for a large oil owned Real Estate development company during this part of my career. We used these guys to help us predict the longer run economy for Houston as we developed large scale MPCs among other product types. Both these guys are PhD. Economist if I recall correctly,

I can't look it up now but I believe Prof. Gilmer runs UH's economic forecasting institute - possibly in an emeritus capacity/role. He and Harvey worked together for many years.

[jencam]

My realtor friend says no, it's not worth it, but many people have no choice.

[Bp25]

Originally Posted by jencam

My realtor friend says no, it's not worth it, but many people have no choice.

What does that mean? If people have to buy it at current price, how is it not worth it? Does he mean that it doesn't cost as much to build it? Looking at reconstruction cost for insurance purposes, or the price of new constructions, that does not seem to be the case. Does he mean that temporary scarcity has increased the price? It has been this way for years, so it can't be temporary. Then what is it that makes it worth less than what people are paying for it?