Rising Property Taxes...When will having no state income tax no longer matter? (Paris: home, purchase)

[lepoisson]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

But it won't because those places are building even less housing than DFW, and therefore it is getting even more expensive, and thus those priced out moving here. DFW is actually in a pretty sweet spot. Chicago and most of the rest of the midwest is in a serious funk and not able to get their act together. The south is a lost cause due to their educational/financial/government systems much worse than TX. The big cities of the north and west have shut down construction, so newcomers either drive farther than Dallas or they group up in worse accommodations.

Denver is coming along nicely, but the whole state has fewer people than DFW. Las Vegas is also coming along but worse than TX in every way.

DFW has another solid decade before some place like Nashville or the Research Triangle of NC or suburban New England finally gets into gear. Or maybe Atlanta, but I predict DFW & Atlanta, if they fall, will fall together.

Or I guess Boston, SF, DC, Seattle, and LA could loosen zoning and slow the migration southward, but the current residents have little to gain from doing that.

All things must eventually come to an end. There will be a breaking point for housing costs in those desirable areas like San Francisco.

[CREW747]

North Texas home sales up, prices at record high in April 2017...

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...ord-high-april

[TheOverdog]

All things must eventually come to an end. There will be a breaking point for housing costs in those desirable areas like San Francisco.

So says someone who has never looked at prices in Tokyo, or any of the other REALLY EXPENSIVE cities to live in in the world. I guess I agree that all things have to end, but the market can stay "irrational" longer than you can stay solvent.

[lepoisson]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

So says someone who has never looked at prices in Tokyo, or any of the other REALLY EXPENSIVE cities to live in in the world. I guess I agree that all things have to end, but the market can stay "irrational" longer than you can stay solvent.

But won't salaries just continue to rise to match the living costs? San Francisco rent prices are so high because there are plenty of people who make $100K+ to rent/buy, but also because there is limited space for new construction.

[Pretzelogik]

Depends on the state. Many have 10% + or - income tax rates in ADDITION to high property taxes.

[jdallas]

Originally Posted by lepoisson

But won't salaries just continue to rise to match the living costs? .

HAHAHAHAHAHA. No.

[lepoisson]

Originally Posted by jdallas

HAHAHAHAHAHA. No.

Maybe not in DFW, but salaries are definitely on the rise in San Francisco.

[BayTexan]

Just wait till the tech bubble implodes (matter of time) and that will lead to the realization that you don't need those overpaid 'social' hacks and the jobs that they currently hold.

Originally Posted by lepoisson

Maybe not in DFW, but salaries are definitely on the rise in San Francisco.

[TheOverdog]

But won't salaries just continue to rise to match the living costs? San Francisco rent prices are so high because there are plenty of people who make $100K+ to rent/buy, but also because there is limited space for new construction.

Yes, of course, but SF is "limited in space" for construction in the same way DFW is - ie not at all. Paris is like 2X as dense as SF.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Real estate historically appreciates at a rate comparable to the inflation rate. Extended periods of appreciation that are higher than this are normally followed by periods that are lower. It's hard to draw specific conclusions from this about a specific market, but when the entire country has seen appreciation that is well above inflation for quite a few years, and that has been coupled with extremely low interest rates in a time of economic expansion, it makes me think there will be some sort of correction for most of the country. I have no idea when that will happen, and I'm skeptical of anyone who claims they do. Statistically, our current period of economic expansion on the national level is unlikely to last several more years. It will be interesting to see how many more rate hikes the fed gets in before the next downturn. If I'm Janet Yellen, I'm terrified of rates being near zero at the start of a downturn and having no tools left to stimulate things. My guess is that she wants to be close to a couple points higher by the next recession, and I'm almost certain that will tap the brakes on housing.