Softening in RE market?? (Houston, Dallas: stadiums, relocate, farm)

[TurtleCreek80]

Originally Posted by crazyforger

This is a very old argument that was set in stone during the era of population explosion.
With fertility rates and household formation rates going down,aging population, robotics and 3D printing, not sure if it is true going forward.

Also the median price jumped because of pandemic and artificially low interest rates...not because of underlying fundamentals.
The underlying fundamentals haven't changed much...even though people have been moving to North Texas, there is abundant land unlike Seattle and not much restriction in regards to new house construction unlike California.

Here in DFW & Texas, we ARE still in the era of population explosion. 4 million new Texans in the last decade, either by birth or relocation / immigration. We are now minority majority in Texas and Hispanic families still tend to be larger. We have runway here - and not as much land as you think near the major metros after the last few decades’ building boom.

Declining population, aging population, etc are all global macro issues but they won’t impact every micro area the same. Rural Texas will be impacted different than metro Texas. Texas metro trends will be different than other states.

I and many other still believe we have another few decades of the golden years of growth in North Texas.

[crazyforger]

Originally Posted by TurtleCreek80

Here in DFW & Texas, we ARE still in the era of population explosion. 4 million new Texans in the last decade, either by birth or relocation / immigration. We are now minority majority in Texas and Hispanic families still tend to be larger. We have runway here - and not as much land as you think near the major metros after the last few decades’ building boom.

Declining population, aging population, etc are all global macro issues but they won’t impact every micro area the same. Rural Texas will be impacted different than metro Texas. Texas metro trends will be different than other states.

I and many other still believe we have another few decades of the golden years of growth in North Texas.

Agree.
Looks like Texas does have couple more decades left.
Thank you

[Leonard123]

Originally Posted by biafra4life

Does this still hold true? Is there still abundant land, that is still within the metroplex? I think that answer is getting more nuanced over time. I just read a report that Frisco is at 80% build out. People looking for homes in the better parts of the metroplex are now headed towards Anna, Celina, Melissa, Fate, Royse City. We just visited with friends who bought in Melissa. They told us they can get to Oklahoma in less than 30 minutes. Their world pretty much ends at Plano. Taking jobs any further south are non starters due to the commute time. Same thing with churches, restaurants etc. I just wonder how much further north people can move to and still claim to be in the metroplex. Yet all the suburbs in between Melissa all the way down to Dallas are pretty much filled up, so the abundant land is questionable.

I've been trying to point this out before, and people here think I'm nuts. They're building up in Sherman and Dennison at this point, and they are going south as far as Waxahachie. Regardless, the infrastructure has not and cannot keep up to that extent. Home builders have probably been more limited by a lack of buildable lots and infrastructure than they have materials and labor.

[jpushiys]

Originally Posted by biafra4life

Does this still hold true? Is there still abundant land, that is still within the metroplex? I think that answer is getting more nuanced over time. I just read a report that Frisco is at 80% build out. People looking for homes in the better parts of the metroplex are now headed towards Anna, Celina, Melissa, Fate, Royse City. We just visited with friends who bought in Melissa. They told us they can get to Oklahoma in less than 30 minutes. Their world pretty much ends at Plano. Taking jobs any further south are non starters due to the commute time. Same thing with churches, restaurants etc. I just wonder how much further north people can move to and still claim to be in the metroplex. Yet all the suburbs in between Melissa all the way down to Dallas are pretty much filled up, so the abundant land is questionable.

Solid point.
Today it takes a little more than an hour from Anna to the Arts District in Dallas : around 1:10 to 1:20 hrs depending on traffic.

Comparing it to another metro - Chicago - it takes a bit more time from Aurora to the Museum Campus in Chicago : around 1:20 to 1:30 hrs depending on traffic.

Aurora is a pretty large suburb and its not the only one of that size at the same radius from the heart of Chicago. That tells me Dallas may also have a bit more room, but not a whole lot. We may be nearing full size soon at which point more growth will come from infill vs. expansion.

[TheOverdog]

That tells me Dallas may also have a bit more room, but not a whole lot.

Dallas is not nearly as centralized as most other cities, and if driving to the Dallas Arts District gets onerous for those to the north, they will just move it farther north (like the move from Fair Park) or Frisco/McKinney/Plano/etc) will set up their own. Assuming demand of course. Plano/Frisco/Allen actually had consolidated plans to do that, but they were 10+ years ago, which was far too early, so they were disbanded.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by jpushiys

Solid point.
Today it takes a little more than an hour from Anna to the Arts District in Dallas : around 1:10 to 1:20 hrs depending on traffic.

Comparing it to another metro - Chicago - it takes a bit more time from Aurora to the Museum Campus in Chicago : around 1:20 to 1:30 hrs depending on traffic.

Aurora is a pretty large suburb and its not the only one of that size at the same radius from the heart of Chicago. That tells me Dallas may also have a bit more room, but not a whole lot. We may be nearing full size soon at which point more growth will come from infill vs. expansion.

DFW has pretty decentralized employment. The distance from Anna to the SH 121 / DNT intersection is way more relevant than the distance to the Arts District. Collin County employment growth is the primary driver of residential expansion toward Sherman / Denison, along with the local employment growth in Grayson County (TI etc.).

[jpushiys]

Originally Posted by TheOverdog

Dallas is not nearly as centralized as most other cities, and if driving to the Dallas Arts District gets onerous for those to the north, they will just move it farther north (like the move from Fair Park) or Frisco/McKinney/Plano/etc) will set up their own. Assuming demand of course. Plano/Frisco/Allen actually had consolidated plans to do that, but they were 10+ years ago, which was far too early, so they were disbanded.

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

DFW has pretty decentralized employment. The distance from Anna to the SH 121 / DNT intersection is way more relevant than the distance to the Arts District. Collin County employment growth is the primary driver of residential expansion toward Sherman / Denison, along with the local employment growth in Grayson County (TI etc.).

Agree with both of you.
It wasn't intended to be an exact comparison, but fwiw : Chicago is not too different with places like Schaumburg and Naperville also being major employment centers. But until we have more civic development in the burbs, u still need to go downtown to catch a game or a show or eat fancy (mostly). Distance from the 'heart' of the metro still matters.

[TheOverdog]

u still need to go downtown to catch a game or a show or eat fancy (mostly). Distance from the 'heart' of the metro still matters.

Go to a fancy show: yes.

Catch a game: No. Only for NBA basketball and NHL hockey.



You can go to Arlington for MLB baseball & NFL football, or to Frisco for minor league basketball, MLS soccer, and minor league baseball. Minor league hockey is a bit iffy, but Allen and Frisco (I think) have recently fielded teams.



That's pretty bad for downtown.

[Sunbather]

DFW, like city vs burbs many places, is interesting because the culture is definitely 'split'. Plenty of what I think Dallas proper offers to me, the people living in the far out burbs don't value as much as the things they choose to live close to (schools, more space, or whatever else they prefer). The things that my wife and I like about Dallas and the things we enjoy doing are almost entirely in Dallas proper. Most of our coworkers or acquaintances who live out in Frisco, Southlake, McKinney etc. aren't that interested in living close to the things we like. Not necessarily because those areas offer the same thing as Dallas, it's just not their primary interests. So, it becomes a bit apples to oranges in terms of what they offer and what people are looking for.

We live where we do because we can walk or bike to the arboretum and White Rock Lake. We are a 5-6 mile bike ride to Lakewood and Lower Greenville (or 10 mins by car), and a quick car ride (or DART ride in a couple cases) to Deep Ellum, downtown, Knox Henderson, Oak Cliff, etc. Dallas also has DMA, Nasher, Crowe, Perot, Meadows. The only top museum not on that list (excluding downtown FW here..who has great museums as well) is the Warehouse at the galleria. We are also avid music fans and performers (at shows ~weekly) and 99% of the shows that come through the area are in Deep Ellum (Bomb Factory, Trees, Canton Hall/Studio, Three Links) or other places in the city core (Majestic, Granada, Texas Theater, Kessler, American Airlines, Southside etc.) - with the occasional show at Toyota (Irving) and of course lots of shows in Denton. I'm not talking bar bands (which are still great), but larger touring shows or local bands with large audiences. And of course the arts district for the winspear, moody, wyly, meyerson.

Yes, there are a lot of things people love about living in suburbs of North Texas, or else they wouldn't choose to live there. But there is nowhere else in the metroplex that offers all of the things we do regularly in this kind of radius.

Just throwing a few examples for sports out there doesn't really cover what Dallas proper offers (and most of it is not downtown, but in the immediate surrounding areas, which is still the core/heart of the city). Most of that is not replicated anywhere else in DFW except for options in downtown FW.

[MurphyPl1]

Originally Posted by jpushiys

Agree with both of you.
It wasn't intended to be an exact comparison, but fwiw : Chicago is not too different with places like Schaumburg and Naperville also being major employment centers. But until we have more civic development in the burbs, u still need to go downtown to catch a game or a show or eat fancy (mostly). Distance from the 'heart' of the metro still matters.

Which game are you referring to? Because half the sports are in Arlington.