Softening in RE market?? (Dallas, Plano: employment, closing, wages)

[houstonview]

Frisco
171 homes have price drops
60 homes have price drops under $400k

I’m still a buyer, but I will want a deal. How do you think others will think? what will spring give us? Will it be another easy spring/summer for sellers and agents of oh throwing their home on market and upgrading with multiple offers?

[houstonview]

Frisco
This is only past 7 days FYI

[MinesotaUser1]

Never seen a thread running for more than 3 months in citi-data dallas forum without a long break.

This itself can tell somthing abnormal going on in the market.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by houstonview

Frisco
171 homes have price drops
60 homes have price drops under $400k

I’m still a buyer, but I will want a deal. How do you think others will think? what will spring give us? Will it be another easy spring/summer for sellers and agents of oh throwing their home on market and upgrading with multiple offers?

I'd think buying now will be better than buying in the spring. You're looking to buy in Frisco, which is family centric. Most families aren't looking to uproot in the middle of the school year. But in the spring, families will start to look so they can move during the summer and disrupt their kid's lives as little as possible.


FWIW, I bought my home during this time in 2014, and we closed in December. In my experience, sellers during the end of the year typically have more of a reason to move since they're listing at the slowest time of the year, and are probably more open to negotiation.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Treasurevalley92

Well, based on the increased frequency of 100 and 500 year floods, It's safe to say that perhaps the risks for alot of things are higher than institutions and experts tell us.

Add to that that 2008 wasn't a "Random" act of God, but the result bad policy.

Regardless we don't have alot of Data on how frequently this sort of thing happens. People tend to over put an emphasis on the good and ignore the bad.

The game has changed. The boom the baby boomers enjoyed in their early careers is as much of an adnormality as the crash of 07', but people want to assume we won't get another crash, and that the personal economics of the boomers will still apply.

Single family homes arn't often the investment they are touted as, just as going to college no longer guarantees you a good job. Alot of millenials are wise to not get tied down to owning a home. In some cases it makes alot of sense, but in alot of others, it simply does not.

I know a few people who made a killing in the last recession. I had a friend in high school whos parents who were upper middle class, but had lived below their means. They bought an investment property at rock bottom prices. I doubt they could have done that if they had gone balls to the walls and "Upgraded" during the boom.

Most people buying 700k houses (in DFW, I get LA and NY are more expensive) probably shouldn't be. Thats alot of money for a place to live that doesn't generate revenue. A house is a place to live, not an investment, the extra amount would be better spent investing in well...just about anything else.

Back on the main topic, the market is cooling off a little bit, I've seen some price cuts on Zillow. I'm the kind of person who will buy under what the bank says I can afford and see no issue with renting for a while to get a better deal.

Minor criticisms:
1. IMO you should revisit the 100 and 500 year flood thing.

2. Agreed 2008 was at the intersection of government cajoled loose lending standards, lots of people lying on applications, some bank malfeasance, several really dumb moves by the Federal Reserve in '05, '06, '07 and into '08, companies like AIG taking near-infinite risk while being paid very little to do so and some really insane rules that barred cos. like AIG from using all possible assets to cover loses and more.

3. Re: The US we have near perfect data about recessions going back to 1907 and very good data to the late 1700s and fairly good data, although mostly indirect and/or forensics based, going back to post-Renaissance Europe.

4. Single family homes are the most important investment most ever make. It's proved by the fact that homeowners have aggregate net worths of about $200K and renters about $5K. Part of that spread is because renters skew young. But that explains less than 1/3 of the difference, in some parts of the country maybe 1/2. Homeownership via a mortgage includes a forced savings component, significant cost certainty (aside from ARMs payments don't go up) and exposure to market forces (most all homes/lots/farms/ranches in The US increase in value over time). Renters pay more over time, have no forced savings component and do not enjoy value increases.

Maybe I missed your related point, investments are not required to generate income. Precious metals, sports collectibles, investment scotch, art, raw land buys. common stock and many more generally do not generate income and they are most certainly investments.
Best guess our home is worth 37/40% more than we paid for it in 2010. We just sold a place in SF that netted us 22%+ y.o.y return. Neither generate(ed) any income. One netted a cash profit the other could.

I'd be the first to agree that owning a home isn't just an investment. There many other benefits and costs. But it's still an investment.

I understand there's an implied chicken and egg thing going on but the college educated on average out earn those without degrees by 53% (I eyeballed the numbers, if I'm off its by ~1-2%).

[houstonview]

Originally Posted by Katana49

I'd think buying now will be better than buying in the spring. You're looking to buy in Frisco, which is family centric. Most families aren't looking to uproot in the middle of the school year. But in the spring, families will start to look so they can move during the summer and disrupt their kid's lives as little as possible.


FWIW, I bought my home during this time in 2014, and we closed in December. In my experience, sellers during the end of the year typically have more of a reason to move since they're listing at the slowest time of the year, and are probably more open to negotiation.

Not the area I’m looking at, just throwing this out to help buyers. Areas with higher inventory have more drops.
Unfortunately my desired area has smaller inventory, still has drops and a lot of homes still being sold.

What you said could be true but that’s what I am saying will a adjustment happen or things continue to do the same thing like the past 7 spring/summer.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by houstonview

Not the area I’m looking at, just throwing this out to help buyers. Areas with higher inventory have more drops.
Unfortunately my desired area has smaller inventory, still has drops and a lot of homes still being sold.

What you said could be true but that’s what I am saying will a adjustment happen or things continue to do the same thing like the past 7 spring/summer.

If you're asking if there's going to be an adjustment by spring 2019 which would make it worthwhile to wait another 6 months, the answer is no.

[Katana49]

Originally Posted by EDS_

4. Single family homes are the most important investment most ever make. It's proved by the fact that homeowners have aggregate net worths of about $200K and renters about $5K. Part of that spread is because renters skew young. But that explains less than 1/3 of the difference, in some parts of the country maybe 1/2. Homeownership via a mortgage includes a forced savings component, significant cost certainty (aside from ARMs payments don't go up) and exposure to market forces (most all homes/lots/farms/ranches in The US increase in value over time). Renters pay more over time, have no forced savings component and do not enjoy value increases.

This.

Owning a home is the great equalizer for the lower and middle class, as it's an investment they can partake in even if they don't have enough discretionary income to put into an investment account or retirement account, to say nothing of the forced savings aspect.

I have a friend who has made very poor financial decisions in life, but due to her owning a home, she's built up 100k in equity that she'd NEVER have if she'd been renting all these years. She recently sold her home, now I'm worried she's just going to blow through all that money and waste it.

[houstonview]

Originally Posted by Katana49

If you're asking if there's going to be an adjustment by spring 2019 which would make it worthwhile to wait another 6 months, the answer is no.

No not waiting for a huge adjustment to buy, but will be looking for a deal in this market, Im a millennial, have a solid savings, got to live on the west coast for 4 years. Back in Texas to be closer to family NO BIGGIE

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Katana49

This.

Owning a home is the great equalizer for the lower and middle class, as it's an investment they can partake in even if they don't have enough discretionary income to put into an investment account or retirement account, to say nothing of the forced savings aspect.

I have a friend who has made very poor financial decisions in life, but due to her owning a home, she's built up 100k in equity that she'd NEVER have if she'd been renting all these years. She recently sold her home, now I'm worried she's just going to blow through all that money and waste it.

Good point about the lower and middle income classes.

I hope your friend takes care of her $100K, it's a precious thing for her.