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There is a youtube video, regarding trends researcher and forecaster Gerald Celente. They talk about how all his future predictions have been accurate, and he is stating that by 2014 New York City will be like Mexico City as far as crime goes, and that other American cities will become similar to 3rd world cities like Calcuttam and that crime would be like 3rd world countries and the coming economic situation will be FAR WORSE then the great depression
What really ruined my day is Celente's track record. What do you guys think?
US citizen history is not to be that passive regarding crime.
It is tolerated to a point, and then Severely dis-tolerated.
While Mexico, Argentina, and other semi-failed and other economic failure States have had huge run-ups in crime, the US historically has not followed that model. Presently the criminals in the US are protected as much or more by law-enforcement than the law-abiding citizenry the law-enforcement community pretenses to protect.
Once law-enforcement fails -- per the Celente model -- the presently law-abiding will be less compelled to not remove the local criminal elements. The US has the history of the Klan, the Posse, the Civil Mob, and many other real life local models of very strict, ruthless and totally effective local "enforcement" that is only rivaled by the Taliban.
While it may be an open shoot-out from time-to-time, I suspect the "bad guys" will be taken down and out quickly and then be few and far between. Consider the Korean Grocers who took care of their business in the LA riots while the LAPD stood-down peeing their pants . . . .
While I do tend to like Celente, I do not think he fully considered that aspect of US culture.
I suspect his predictions regarding US going into Deep Economic hard times are fully correct -- at least until and unless we go off Oil, and Celente regarding debt -- but I see US as more a 1930's or harsher level hardship rather Gansta hoods of Mexico or Argentina.
While it may be an open shoot-out from time-to-time, I suspect the "bad guys" will be taken down and out quickly and then be few and far between. Consider the Korean Grocers who took care of their business in the LA riots while the LAPD stood-down peeing their pants . . . .
I was in Los Angeles at this time and I remember all this vividly and this is not really an example of what you want it to be. Firstly these were Koreans not Americans (i.e., born in Korea) and there was a lot of animosity between Koreans and blacks before the riots. No way where the going to let them destroy their stores and they were already armed to the teeth. Americans seem pretty complacent today and I really have no idea how much it would take to say "enough is enough". Americans are already being robbed left and right from the government and wall-street and yet....what do they do about it? Eat potato chips.
And in terms of the LAPD peeing their pants....c'mon... These riots were directly related to police brutality in LA against blacks if the LAPD cracked down on this too aggressively it would've made it much worse. This is not to mention that the skins were on the sidelines just waiting to start their "race war".
many americans don't realize that they have been robbed yet, because all of the economic damage is in the future. all of these "manipulations" allow the extend and pretend to go on a little while longer. i saw this on housing news and i thought it was disgraceful what BOA is thinking of doing:
I think the general trend will be downhill for the common man in this country. Upward mobility will no longer be an aspiration of future generations.
But actually go to Mexico City or Calcutta and you will see life goes on. There are very rich areas and very poor ones, but they aren't tearing down the city or eating each other's brains. Some take pride in their appearance/home/ect despite being poor, others don't. Some turn to crime, but most don't. There are a multitude of problems, but nothing that really threatens civilization itself.
It won't be pandemonium, like Celente predicts. He's fond of saying "when people have nothing to loose, they loose it"... I would add: "or accept the hand delt to them and go on with life."
Wow... I think I'm actually being slowly cured of "doomsday disease"
Celente certainly doesn't have the franchise on dire predictions, many of the more astute observers of the American scene have said pretty much the same thing that we've heard from Celente. If you look at the present day turmoil in the entire western trade bloc you can't help but think the worst may be upon us. We can do a fairly accurate job of predicting the outcome of such downers as a total collapse in the economy, one thing we could count on would be the absence of civility as we know it, not that that hasn't already happened to some extent.
America has a long history of ignorant folk's being armed and dangerous, "justice" has been their collective aim but not always that kind of justice that truly serves the common interest, sometimes it was a singular notion of justice that was sought. The criminal gangs that really dominate our lives today are those found on Wall Street, the bangers in our cities only wish they had that much influence and wealth. White collar crime will bring us to the brink and it's entirely possible that the punks in the hood may finish us off but all in all we'd better try now to stop the future mayhem by beating down those big time gangsters that have already robbed us blind........
I was in Los Angeles at this time and I remember all this vividly and this is not really an example of what you want it to be. Firstly these were Koreans not Americans (i.e., born in Korea) and there was a lot of animosity between Koreans and blacks before the riots. No way where the going to let them destroy their stores and they were already armed to the teeth. Americans seem pretty complacent today and I really have no idea how much it would take to say "enough is enough".
Most of America is NOT LA. A lot of the rest tends to armed and short-fused. Seen the weapons and ammo sales numbers since the downturn started? Serious growth area, in business-forum terms.
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Americans are already being robbed left and right from the government and wall-street and yet....what do they do about it? Eat potato chips.
Hardly. Some chumps have lost money by sending it to crooks on Wall Street and others have lost money on their house (or lost their house) due to misplaced trust in crooked corporate banks, backed by the .gov . . . but . . . in practice, much of America is living from the .gov.
America is pretty much an entire country on one form of welfare or another. Unemployment benes now approaching 2 Years. Even the college I presently teaching at, lives on .gov backed student loans. Whether living Phat on .gov contracts or on the bottom end, America is .gov welfare. But you are correct that folks are "eating potato chips," about it all -- 1 in 8 Americans are now on Food Stamps.
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And in terms of the LAPD peeing their pants....c'mon... These riots were directly related to police brutality in LA against blacks if the LAPD cracked down on this too aggressively it would've made it much worse. This is not to mention that the skins were on the sidelines just waiting to start their "race war".
Everybody always has some reason to not do their job.
Whether it is the Air Force on 9-11, or "Heck-of-a-job-you-are-doing-there-Brownie" with NOLA/Katrina, or the LAPD, or (insert yet another reason/situation, and the folks you have been required to hire and pay in advance), the likelihood of system level failure is very real, and some folks in the real world pick up the slack.
While I agree that the trend is probably downward for the commoner, both absolutely and relative to generations past and/or his counterparts in other countries, I do think Celente is full of hot air to a large extent. Calm, reasoned predictions about what the future may bring to America don't sell books, newsletters, TV appearances or whatever else Celente is peddling these days.
Last edited by StoneOne; 04-26-2010 at 12:50 PM..
Reason: typo correction
Echoing Chang and StoneOne, I believe it is fair to stay we are witnessing the end of American exceptionalism in history and into an era of mediocrity, just like the rest of the world, past and present.
That doesn't mean that there won't be incidences of violence and/or periods of revival, but the "golden age" of the middle class is probably gone for good.
A wild card may be new discoveries/inventions in private transport fuel technology, for example.
I think the crime predictions are way exaggerated. Some compare LA to mexico city, or la will become like mexico or other 3rd world south american countries.
-Big difference! You don't see armed guards on the street in american cities. In some 3rd world countries, you can't drive ferrari's, lamborghini's or other expensive cars. People still drive ferrari's in LA. We're not completely gated and walled off.
-Another big difference. The culture in America is still generally clean. There are many states that are impeccably clean (like vermont). The people predicting doom dont travel very much.
Celente to some degree feeds into peoples fears. And with the internet being 24/7, those fears can get amplified. If its so bad, more people would be moving. Would you rather move to a major american city, or calcutta?
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