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It could be that it's the other way around - that the price of oil follows the economy.
That is a wag the dog scenario. The cost of energy is the single most important factor in any economy. 1 gallon of gasoline provides the same energy as 500 man hours. Cheap energy translates to high production and profits. Expensive energy translates to lower production at higher costs and lower profits.
Kunstler is something of a strange bird. I read his weekly rants if for no other reasons than I find them amusing and it's always good to see an alternative differing, and non conformist view that at least on the surface doesn't appear to be the ravings of a lunatic.
That said, I'm with you in that I'm not really sure exactly what he's driving at. He is at least somewhat in touch with reality, at least somewhat educated, and clearly very articulate. But his mantra of "sustaining the unsustianable" is so often repeated that it's become cliched and lost much of its impact (try finding an entry on his site that doesn't contain that phrase or some variant of it. That's like finding a virgin in a night club). Clearly he has some kind of axe to grind, though exactly what I have yet to determine. As much as he belittles and counts the days of modern civilization, he doesn't appear to not be using it; if his entries are to be believed, he's sure been traipsing the country and the globe a lot (via oil powered automobiles and jetliners) lately. He even capitulated to this double standard of "do as I say, not as I do" by rationalizing his actions by saying "well the plane would've operated anyway with or without me".
That may be true Mr Kunstler, but you have no idea how ruinous those actions have been to your credibility and legitimacy in recent months. Maybe he just doesn't care, which makes me wonder why he's really pissed off. I don't know. Maybe he hasn't slept with a woman since the Reagan Administration. A lot of male anger and frustration can usually be traced back to a sexual tension of some sort. Also, while he's good at providing a synopsis of current and recent world events (hindsight is 20/20 though), fewer and fewer of his predictions are coming true. Though I agree with him 100% on his bulletpoints of how we are being swindled left and right and how most of America is just too consumed with "Biggest Losers", "Dancing Stars", and Justin Bieber to even notice-let alone give a damn. I agree. As a nation, we've turned into a bunch of short sighted, selective-memory idiots.
He is right about one other thing though: there is way too much waste and frivolity when it comes to energy and transportation. The HSR abomination here in CA is a 24 karat example of that. What it really represents is a new method to an old habit. Maybe there really is too much mobility here. Would ending the 500 mile shopping trip, 1500 mile salad, 2500 mile trip to see Uncle Buford, and the 3500 mile trip to lay on the beach really be such a bad thing (as Mr Kunstler has asked)?
Which takes me back to some of the points in this discussion. Americans as a whole are very emotional (read: irrational) when it comes to gas prices. Don't be so quick to write our economic obituary just yet. Let gas go to $5, $7, or even $15. Very possible to see before the end of this new decade. We'll demand "action", and throw Kunstler-esque temper tantrums every step of the way. But guess what? We'll still pay it. Even if we all turn to electric cars that end up doubling or tripling our electric bills. We won't care. The prevailing (irrational) mentality here is that we have absolutely no problem paying an extra $100 a month for food and electricty if it means not spending an extra $2 for a gallon of gas.
Spending a dollar to save a dime?
Sounds illogical.
But we ARE an illogical nation. And when it comes to what we think is dodging high[er] gas prices, we will not only do it, but do it with a smile on our face.
Well, no argument either way with most of that. From what I have seen, Full Doomers sort of worship him as a demigod, and there is not a lot of sense to be found in most of that.
But when you get to this part . . .
Quote:
But guess what? We'll still pay it. Even if we all turn to electric cars that end up doubling or tripling our electric bills. We won't care. The prevailing (irrational) mentality here is that we have absolutely no problem paying an extra $100 a month for food and electricty if it means not spending an extra $2 for a gallon of gas.
Spending a dollar to save a dime?
Sounds illogical.
But we ARE an illogical nation. And when it comes to what we think is dodging high[er] gas prices, we will not only do it, but do it with a smile on our face.
Well, it is a little bit illogical. Because that is not what the math says. I know some folk like to argue belief over math, but that gets back to Kunsler-esque thinking?
While your mileage may vary about 50 cents worth of electricity can get you as far as $3.00 (a gallon) of gas.
Going electric with the cars, and ground transportation in general, saves money, cleans the air, and stops the money from bleeding out of US.
Five bucks would be bad? Here in Canada we pay $1.10-$1.20 a litre. Figure it out. Our economy is doing pretty good compared to the US. There are bigger troubles afoot for you guys.
My question is, how will that change effect the economy? Will it crash and burn, or bloom when as-of-yet unrealized opportunities are opened by new technologies? Maybe somewhere in the middle?
How do you see the game changing as a result of ever-increasing fuel prices?
1. Prices of everything produced with the dinosaur method of fossil fuels will soar, making food and many commodities out of the reach of many of us.
2. New technologies will spawn, but not get off the ground because of lobbying against them (big oil).*
3. Masses of people will suffer from this, and also from more lost jobs outsourced.
4. Suburbia and countryside will die (see the movie through netflix: The End of Suburbia). Well to do professionals will purchase in-town, in-city condos and others will be more or less stranded unless they have the money for car gas.
5. * Hopefully we'll run past Peak and downhill on oil reserves and will be forced into new technologies, and this will be a techno revolution in which millions will not be trained and will not have work. Upside: clean energy.
The coming techno revolution will be akin in some ways to the Gutenberg (printing) Press invention, the Industrial Revolution and the Digital Revolution.
The power grid as it is would not support 200 million electric cars, but we could fill in the gaps with more nuclear power, solar power on private homes, and even more coal fired plants as a stop-gap measure. It would be difficult, but not impossible...
The $147 a barrel oil was the death nail in 2008. A fragile recovery cannot handle high oil prices. OPEC knew it wasn't in their best interest to push oil beyond $100 because it would accelerate exploration of alternatives and conservation.
If it spikes to $5 most Americans will scream like they did last time.
Americans should be screaming now. It is greed, not need, that is driving up the costs.
5. * Hopefully we'll run past Peak and downhill on oil reserves and will be forced into new technologies, and this will be a techno revolution in which millions will not be trained and will not have work. Upside: clean energy.
You mean millions of Americans who are products of their idiotic education system. The rest of the world will do just fine.
It'll be 100 years before you run out of reserves. There's 5 times more oil in the 'Stans than there is in the Middle East, but it will take decades to build the infrastructure and start producing at the same level as the Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.
There's 100 times more oil than the Middle East in the eastern Russian Republics and untapped coal reserves that are as big as the eastern US.
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about 50 cents worth of electricity can get you as far as $3.00 (a gallon) of gas. 
COAL???? 
