Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaggy001
I remember buying Euros for 80 cents
But the issue is not so much the strength of the euro but the weakness of the dollar over the past 6 - 8 years or so. The euro has held well against the dollar, the pound and the Yen but against 'safe-haven' currencies like the Swiss franc, the Norwegian krone or the Australian dollar it has done less well.
Also worth considering that the core economy of the EU remains robust. Countries like Greece or Portugal don't contribute that much to EU GDP.
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I agree with this argument: both the US and Europe (and Japan) carry heavy baggage as the rest of the world industrializes, but eurozone monetary policy is relatively less a mess, or relatively more disciplined if you want a positive spin on it, than US monetary policy. I have to say that I admire German discipline; the most recent German economic data was pretty robust.
There is some logic to the risks that the more disciplined eurozone policymakers are taking, favoring long-term fiscal rigor over short-term monetary bail-outs.
The ECB has recently "printed" enough money to keep the system afloat for three years, but has kept limited the quantity of long-term bond purchases.
I see less risk of a eurozone break-up in 2012-2013, but potentially more so in 2014-2015.
In short, the eurozone laggards have two-three years to pass and
effectively implement pro-growth policies in a framework of fiscal discipline, a tough square to circle. By 2014, countries like Italy must achieve at least around a sustainable 2% growth rate.
Facing the headwinds of global competition for some years now and going forward, at stake, in my view, is an acceleration in the absolute decline of the standard of living vs. a slower relative decline in the standard of living for the average eurozone worker.
Average US workers face the same stakes, though the policy-making framework and dynamics are a bit different, however close enough to those of the eurozone that the EUR/USD exchange rate has hovered around 1.36 for the better part of seven years now.