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Dead on. Ford dropped it's Escape Hybrid for this very reason. Even the Prius is on questionable ground depending on how it is used and how long it is kept. You can buy a Toyota Corolla for $16K and a Prius starts at $24K. The Corolla is 27/34 and the Prius is 51/48. If you drive 10,000 miles a year of mixed city/hwy you can expect 30 MPG from the Corolla and 50 MPG from the Prius.
10000/30=333 gals per year
10000/50=200 gals per year
@ $4 a gallon the 133 gallon savings will net you a savings of $532 a year. It will take you 15 years to break even. Small wonder people aren't flocking to hybrids!
If you drive 20000 miles annually and all city driving you might break even in 5 years, your battery warranty will be up and that will have a huge impact on trade-in or resale value.
We just are not there yet. But, a step in the right direction.
I have no quarrel with your analysis. Some people buying a Prius may, however, be betting on a future which will see gas prices going ever higher. Such a future is, in fact, guaranteed; it's just that we don't know how soon and how high. While the extreme volatility of gas prices allows some people to fantasize that "the prices will always come back down", that is just a way of denying the reality that the long-term trend is inevitably up. There is only so much oil in the ground, and the low-hanging fruit (the oil cheapest and easiest to get out of the ground) has already been picked.
Here in Southern California Prius'es abound. I am very glad to see that, because any fuel saved by them helps ease demand and therefore helps all of us. I am not personally interested in owning one because I am a car enthusiast, I love to drive, and I am interested in the handling and acceleration of any car I have. But the vast majority of people do not share my interest and I salute the ones who have chosen a Prius even if, short-term, they are paying a premium, as you so correctly point out.
You can buy a Toyota Corolla for $16K and a Prius starts at $24K. The Corolla is 27/34 and the Prius is 51/48. If you drive 10,000 miles a year of mixed city/hwy you can expect 30 MPG from the Corolla and 50 MPG from the Prius.
10000/30=333 gals per year
10000/50=200 gals per year
@ $4 a gallon the 133 gallon savings will net you a savings of $532 a year. It will take you 15 years to break even. Small wonder people aren't flocking to hybrids!
If you drive 20000 miles annually and all city driving you might break even in 5 years, your battery warranty will be up and that will have a huge impact on trade-in or resale value.
We just are not there yet. But, a step in the right direction.
Hi shaker281--
It all depends on the economics, as you point out. In this similar vein, I could buy a stripped down basic four-cylinder, 5 speed manual car (Nissan Versa, Toyota Yaris, Ford Fiesta) and get 40 MPG on the highway and pay $12-14,000 up front. And that would be enough to offset the higher cost of the Prius for a decade or more.
But everyone's situation is different. Plus, the new Prius has since 2004 an array of technology that has only become recently available on higher trim levels of the Corolla/Camry/etc. such as traction control, VSC, backup cameras, push button starting, etc. And to get those bits of technology on the Corolla will push the list price way beyond the original $16,000.
That said, I drive a Prius to the tune of 30,000 miles a year. I make my money back on fuel saved far more quickly than the "average" driver.
And one more thing - while batteries ain't cheap, they won't ruin you, either. You can get a replacement salvage battery for under $1,000 now and it comes with a warranty. Here, about 1/3 of the way down.
Rest assured if it didn't make economic sense I'd wait for gas prices to spike, sell that Prius at a tidy profit, and replace it with something that has at least eight cylinders.
You have your facts wrong the Volt never runs on gasoline. The gas motor charges the battery only to extend its range. If you use it as intended you may never need to add fuel. It is intended for short commutes.
The real issue is the range makes it unacceptable for many people. Not to mention it's price. What does that mean about "only 2 back seats"? How many do you want? How many people drive around with more than 4 occupants?
You buying one? Or like everyone else, maybe it doesn't suit your needs?
Of course it runs on gasoline -- that is what drives the generator after 40 miles. But aside from the word games, here is how the real world of it works -- from a conversation on here (city-data) just a couple of weeks ago . . .
Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdelena
I think the issue is that batteries take up a lot of space... but yes, the limited back seat does seriously limit the market... but then the price limits it more... and the millions of drivers that have no where to plug it in conveniently. It is a political solution (like ethanol) that really does to address the real problem.
[Phil Sez:]
Real Problem? At the immediate. Real Problem is that GM are mouth-breathing idiots.
Yes, batteries do take some space. Welcome to vehicle design. Have done some myself. Trade offs become between performance, appearance, weight, size, etc.
In the case of GM and the Volt, the morons had decided that a minimum truck space was needed -- in their case -- the standard is that a trunk shall fit a set of Golf Clubs. Yes, I cannot make this level of stupid up. Just think like a typical Business Degree Corporate Board Room idiot for a moment to grasp that.
But even the dumb could be recovered from, if they could just make the ego-shattering acknowledgement that they FUed. Instead they sent out a marketing BSer -- or VP -- same thing, I suppose -- to explain how superior the FU was/is.
Easiest patch would be an insert seat to go over the mess they have made of the backseat. Like a car seat for kids. Sit three across, and off we would going and GM would have $40K of Phil$ in their pocket.
A better fix would be an option to either reduce the batteries under/between the backseats and/or move them to the trunk. And while doing that give an alternate option for an extended run miles to plug in the truck.
But they are Not Going to do that, because they would have to admit the present design was wrong.
=============
Real Story, real People -- Me, Momma and the kids, just yesterday at the State Fair of Texas.
Had all three of our little monsters along, and we were tracking across the whole fair because our 5th grade Girl Scout was doing the State Fair map tracking award. Follow the map and phone GPS all around the fair to all the locations and get the award. First stop was the Car Expo. Usually we skip that, but since we were there, I wanted to see what Electric / Alt-Fuel cars we could stuff three kids into the backseat.
Started with Ford. Ford did not have keys to open their cars. Ahhhh. That is impressive.
Then we go over to the Chevy display. They have the windows down on the Volts. So at least we know we should be able to get into one. Went like this:
============
Phil: Do you a patch or fix for the backseat, yet? We have three kids, the back seat only seats two.
GM Rep: Patch? Back? Yes, they do have a Hatchback
[you understand that I am really not making this up even a tenny bit. This is totally real, and just yesterday.]
Phil: [now I am talking slow and calm, and like unto a retard]: (patting the kids on the head and counting) 1, 2, 3. (now pointing at the backseat) 1, 2.
GM Rep: Would you like to see how the hatchback works?
Phil: (to Mrs. Phil) See? See? They really are this stupid.
Mrs. Phil: (annoyed with me, and to the GM Rep) Thank you, we will going along now. um, no. He is just looking at electrics or alternate fuels . . . .
================
I follow what you are jabbering about the various political nonsense, but really cd, this whole game has gone beyond that. We are pumping down and burning a finite resource (Oil) in an infinite growth rate. Most indicators are showing we are past the half-way point.
You know some math. How is THAT going to work out?
Aint no politics in math.
We are running out of folks to rob and kill for the Oil, and China is digging its grave in this regard faster than we are.
Meanwhile, electricity is so surplus here in Texas it is free. No bs, No Texas/JR Ewing-nonsense, No sucker-deal.
Electricity is So Surplus -- IT IS FREE. Making the plug-in point for Free Electricity is pretty easy.
Save With Free Nights Plan | TXU Energy
Now show me the politics.
B U T, Shaker, I do respect your view, so I figured I would test it again, today.
My email to their FAQ page:
From Phil:
Quote:
Chevy Volt:
1. The back seat. Do you have a patch, or fix, or option, whatever . . . to allow us to seat three kids in the backseat?
2. Fuel. Can it run on anything other than Gasoline -- E10. Such as E85 or E100?
Thanks.
And back from Chevrolet:
Quote:
Dear Mr. Txxxxxxx,
Thank you for contacting Chevrolet and for your interest in the Volt! We appreciate the time you have taken to write us. I attempted calling you today but was unsuccessful. Thank you for the opportunity to assist you today with your inquiry.
We are ecstatic to learn you are interested in the Volt. After researching your questions I found out the Volt only accommodates 2 passengers in the back seat. The vehicle only runs on gasoline and premium gas is required. Again, thank you for taking the time to contact us. If we can answer any additional questions, please contact us by email or phone. Our goal at General Motors is to have completely satisfied customers. Have a great day.
If you are not currently working with a Chevrolet dealership in your area and you would like to locate one, an easy way to do so is by visiting General Motors | Dealer Locator | GM.com.
We stand behind our full lineup of attractive, dependable vehicles with the best warranty coverage in America. At Chevrolet, we strive to provide exceptional customer service. yadda, yadda, yadda.
So what do you think Shaker?
Took them some "research" but they figgered out there is a-only 2 seat thingys back there!
Woudda figgered?
Only Gasoline -- and "premium gas is required." Tell me true -- could they really be any more stoopit?
Should I send back a note and offer to do the re-design for free?
This is partially true, especially the part about gov spending. No offense, but I suspect your close affiliation with alternative energy colors your opinion, as alternative energy initiatives rely heavily on government subsidies and energy costs remaining high.
Fair Enough on the challenge. While I do prefer Alternate -- it is because of two reasons --
1. I have kids,
2. I am in the Energy Business, based from Texas -- Not just the renewable energy business, per se.
Really not about business nor money.
My High Dollah Customers are Oil, Gas, Coal, and Chemical. Pays over double of the renewable market. "Old" Energy pays so well that a good portion of the renewable stuff I do for free.
But while there is money in Old Energy -- there is no future in it. Only death ahead on that path. See my #1 Reason above to understand what and why I am saying this. But I cannot beat the Master on explaining this. Maybe this would help?
Quote:
This day I call the heavens and the earth as witnesses against you that I have set before you life and death, blessings and curses. Now choose life, so that you and your children may live.
It is our lives and our choices.
Oil is the Road to Death.
For US or anyone who follows US on it.
Quote:
It is not unusual for a struggling entity to sell real estate to raise money and cut costs.
BoA is not planning on dumping THEIR Business Properties. The dump will be the Occupied REO -- all the Shadow Inventory of Zombie Foreclosures from the CountryWide buy. There are Millions of more houses to dumped onto the market. You follow?
Quote:
Possibly true, but CBO is basing predictions on fiscal cliff variables. A budget deal and tax initiatives may moderate that substantially.
Cannot cut the budget into a deflationary depression with a debt-based money system.
The choice will come down to who will die? US or the Bankers?
The math is absolutely heartless.
Debt-based money requires infinite growth to cover the interest.
Simple laws of exponential math.
But you cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet.
I predict the next collapse of GM will happen around 2017 or 2018. Several reasons:
1) The taxpayer-financed bailout did indeed allow GM enough operating capital to get back on its feet. But in doing so, the UAW took the chance and froze out all rival unions from the new GM. Any plant that was not represented by the UAW - most egregiously in Moraine Ohio where the plant was represented by the IUE-CWA instead - remains closed to this day.
Meanwhile, the plant in Lordstown, Ohio - long known for its history of truly terrible cars such as the Vega, the Citation, Chevette, Cavalier, and Cobalt - is running at full speed again, because it's UAW.
2) GM has done nothing to resolve the overhead costs of UAW retirees, pensions, etc. Consequently, GM's competitive edge in labor costs is still significant, even though new hires are making much less.
3) GM has posted a profit since the bailout, that is true. But that is due to a perfect storm of the Fukushima disaster which cut Honda, Nissan, and Toyota down to size, while GM posts record profits because the Federal government is allowing the new GM - technically a new legal entity - to write off continuing losses from the old GM. Consequently, GM has not paid a dime in Federal corporate taxes since its bailout. That is why GM is posting a profit.
3a) The market knows this. That's why GM stock continues to underperform. It's currently stuck at $23 a share, well below its $38 IPO and a Texas mile away from the $55 it needs to get to in order for taxpayers to get their money back.
4) The fundamentals of the car market still haven't changed. Although engines across the board are getting more fuel efficient (yet power and performance is still increasing), GM is still miles behind the competition in many respects. The Toyota Prius debuted in Japan in 1997. It took GM almost a decade to rush a hybrid into production (the Malibu Hybrid in 2007, I want to say?), and its two-mode system is significantly less efficient than Toyota's HSD.
It shows in the market - today, Toyota sells three out of every four hybrids purchased in the US. GM's Volt is not remotely competitive. Even after a generous Federal credit it still costs over $40,000. Compare that to $24,000 for a Prius or $19,000 for an Insight. And once the battery's flat, it only gets 30-odd miles to the gallon on premium fuel. Nothing spectacular there. It's more of a curiosity than anything else, the economics of the Volt simply don't work for the average consumer.
And turning to other cars, GM cars still have the age-old build quality issues - knobs and buttons falling off, that truly terrible five-cylinder engine they used in the Chevy Colorado - it's just shoddy build quality. I remember going on a vacation back in ~2008 with the old man and we rented a brand-new Buick Lucerne and I promise you I merely pressed the button for the radio and my finger went straight through.
That said, GM/UAW has the support of the Obama administration and has plenty of cash on hand due to its profits from the past couple years due to paying no Federal taxes. It will take a minimum of five years, but there will be another reckoning.
Personally, I don't think GM will be competitive unless the immediately fire every employee at the Lordstown plant, bring in some Toyota guys, and educate a new workforce on quality control. Because GM has never taken the compact car market seriously, and Japanese companies have been eating them alive since the 70's in that market.
Hello, and thank you very much for the nice note back.
Yes, I understand the Volt only has two seats in the back. My question is if you/Chevy have created a fix for this? Or perhaps there is one in the works?
And the same on the fuel. I understand it was designed to require premium gasoline. Again, my question is -- Are you going to fix this?
Do you understand that I -- and likely many others -- would like to buy a Volt, but you have made some very fundamental design mistakes.
Would you like to fix them? Do you need help to do so? I will help you for free.
Would really like to be a customer.
Thanks,
Phil T[xxxxx]
817-[xxxxxxxx]
phili[xxxxxxxx]@yahoo.com
And back:
Quote:
Dear Mr. T[xxxxxx],
Thank you for contacting Chevrolet and for your interest in the 2013 Volt! We appreciate the time you have taken to write us and are delighted to assist you. We tried contacting you today by telephone, but were unable to reach you.
We are thrilled you contacted us and are ecstatic to hear you are considering the Volt. We understand your desire to have a rear bench (3-passenger seating) seating and regular fuel or all electric; however, at this time, the Volt does not have either as an option nor have there been any announcements to alter the Volt. We value your business and apologize for any inconvenience this has caused.
We will, however, document your concerns and comments so that it may have an effect on the future changes. In the meantime, if there is anything else we can assist you with please e-mail us again or phone us at the telephone number listed below. . . . .
There we go. Make a simple mistake. No capacity to fix it.
These are management problems. Not technical nor engineering.
Did not put a reverse gear in their corporate design model.
Also, cars are lasting much longer due to better quality, meaning cars don't need to be replaced nearly as often.
It's interesting because car in the 40's and 50's were built like tanks. You could take them 200k-300k miles with no problem (provided to maintained them) Then came the days of the Yugo, the Vega and the Capri back in the 70's-80's and you were lucky if the engine lasted 75k miles before blowing a piston.
I can't speak for Ford as much. I know they pretty much liquidated their capital holdings in order to stay afloat during the financial crisis (selling their stake in Mazda, etc.) and enjoyed a huge resurgence especially from people who swore off "Government Motors" because Ford never took a bailout. I think Ford has a good opportunity to capitalize on that goodwill in the next five years and build a competitive lineup of cars.
They're sort of doing that with the Fusion and Fiesta (I'm leaving the Focus out because its numerous electronics woes), but I seriously hope Ford's been building their transmissions better today than back in the 90's.
It all depends on the economics, as you point out. In this similar vein, I could buy a stripped down basic four-cylinder, 5 speed manual car (Nissan Versa, Toyota Yaris, Ford Fiesta) and get 40 MPG on the highway and pay $12-14,000 up front. And that would be enough to offset the higher cost of the Prius for a decade or more.
But everyone's situation is different. Plus, the new Prius has since 2004 an array of technology that has only become recently available on higher trim levels of the Corolla/Camry/etc. such as traction control, VSC, backup cameras, push button starting, etc. And to get those bits of technology on the Corolla will push the list price way beyond the original $16,000.
That said, I drive a Prius to the tune of 30,000 miles a year. I make my money back on fuel saved far more quickly than the "average" driver.
And one more thing - while batteries ain't cheap, they won't ruin you, either. You can get a replacement salvage battery for under $1,000 now and it comes with a warranty. Here, about 1/3 of the way down.
Rest assured if it didn't make economic sense I'd wait for gas prices to spike, sell that Prius at a tidy profit, and replace it with something that has at least eight cylinders.
I agree 100%. For some it makes great sense and I applaud those who are at the forefront of this sea change in transportation. Good to know affordable batteries are available. And you are absolutely correct about the tech/features that the Prius employs over a base model Corolla. Thanks for the added info.
Fair Enough on the challenge. While I do prefer Alternate -- it is because of two reasons --
1. I have kids,
2. I am in the Energy Business, based from Texas -- Not just the renewable energy business, per se.
Really not about business nor money.
My High Dollah Customers are Oil, Gas, Coal, and Chemical. Pays over double of the renewable market. "Old" Energy pays so well that a good portion of the renewable stuff I do for free.
But while there is money in Old Energy -- there is no future in it. Only death ahead on that path. See my #1 Reason above to understand what and why I am saying this. But I cannot beat the Master on explaining this. Maybe this would help?
It is our lives and our choices.
Oil is the Road to Death.
For US or anyone who follows US on it.
BoA is not planning on dumping THEIR Business Properties. The dump will be the Occupied REO -- all the Shadow Inventory of Zombie Foreclosures from the CountryWide buy. There are Millions of more houses to dumped onto the market. You follow?
Cannot cut the budget into a deflationary depression with a debt-based money system.
The choice will come down to who will die? US or the Bankers?
The math is absolutely heartless.
Debt-based money requires infinite growth to cover the interest.
Simple laws of exponential math.
But you cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet.
You make some very good points and I am with you on the future and our children's future!
Regarding BOA, I misunderstood your post and knew BOA was selling a lot of their self occupied space, so I took a wrong turn on what you meant. Thank you for clarifying your meaning.
We are entirely in agreement on deficit spending, national debt and oil dependency.
Unfortunately, we know that if there is a tiny fraction of a percent of profit to be had by emphasizing "old" energy over 'new" energy, the conglomerates will look to reap the added profit in short term gain. Thus, accelerating the transition will be a battle!
Last edited by shaker281; 11-06-2012 at 02:37 AM..
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