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Realistically, are things on the upswing or downswing?
People are buying lots of junk they don't really need and entertaining themselves to death, not speaking of buying the things that hurt them. You can't claim "disaster" if soft drinks are 96 billion$ industry +/-, just a small example.
I think things are going to get worse...a LOT worse. I think there are too many people- too many people doing nothing but still wanting to be housed, clothed and fed, too many people doing too many things that aren't really necessary, making things that they expect others to buy...but how much crap do people really need?
So if let's say 50% of those very same people, out of sudden, start making a ready-for-garbage item X (you can live much better without) and let's say remaining 50% would get busy marketing that item X using all tricks imaginable, a catastrophe would be averted, right?
As it is economy produces enough of the essential goods&services so everybody can survive. What you are saying that unemployed people must do something ASAP or production of the essential goods will decline. Yet, the unemployed will most likely get employed in some silly, superfluous industries peddling 10000th diet pill or intimate hairdos. All those silly things the unemployed would produce are very taxing, they demand lots of resources and energy. Sooner or later resources&energy spent on the garbage will undermine production of the essential goods. In some ways Economics 101 is the most absurd college class imaginable.
Last edited by RememberMee; 07-10-2013 at 12:31 AM..
The government is great at modifying statistical reporting for things like unemployment, GDP, etc. The jobs that they're adding are barely enough to keep up with immigration, and most are part-time/temp jobs; how can you raise a family on that? If you're looking for real numbers, try this: http://www.shadowstats.com/
The bond market (and derivatives) is a ticking time-bomb. The Fed can keep inflating our money supply through QE IV, but at some point, the market is going to force interest rates up. After that, I believe economic activity (including housing) will come to a crawl and the good ol' USofA will need to spend 50% of its revenue to service its debt.
Better pay off debts, save some money and diversify!
I think things are going to get worse...a LOT worse. I think there are too many people- too many people doing nothing but still wanting to be housed, clothed and fed, too many people doing too many things that aren't really necessary, making things that they expect others to buy...but how much crap do people really need?
To my way of thinking, the economy is 'manufactured'- a great show of spinning plates, adding more and more and more and trying to keep them all spinning, but some of them are crashing down and more will follow.
The talking heads all spout about 'growing the economy', but it's all an illusion. You can't keep growing and growing and growing, at some point it's all got to collapse. They should have been pushing for a *stable* economy.
Too many people living in big cities, all rushing about like ants in a hill. But, of what real value is the 'work' that they do? What will happen [to them] when the spinning plates come crashing down and the house of cards blows over?
Those of us who live where we can produce our own food might be in a slightly better position, if we are prepared. I am not one of those 'survivalists' constantly stocking arms and ammunition and food...yet, but I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't completely wrong.
A big war that consumes a large part of the population would solve the problem. I wonder if there are any in Washington who might be having thoughts like that? Will it be here? Or somewhere else?
Of course, there's always 'Soylent Green', too.
But don't worry, Big Brother is watching...and listening to your phone calls, and reading your e-mails and your chats on bulletin boards...No, not really. They wouldn't do that...would they? Don't we have Rights? We used to, once upon a time...is the fairy-tale almost over?
There is no long-term vision in the mainstream. There are some news outlets and government officials that see it, but they're way far into the minority. Getting elected is all that's important at this point.
The world won't come to an end, but our inflate>consume>spend approach will topple over the next few years IMO. Unfortunately, our liberties will likely continue to errode as government blames free markets (haha, yeah, "free") for our ills. I completely expect the majority of Americans to look to government for more "help".
When it comes to employment, I just look at Ohio and Dayton metro numbers....this is the source I used, and I use non-seasonally adjusted (since I am looking for monthly and quarterly patterns over time), and I only look at the non-farm private sector employment.
...it takes a bit of work to do this since you have to step thru some screens and then put the output into graph form to see patterns....(at least I do since im more visual vs a numbers guy)
The benefit of this site is that its a fairly long data set, going back to the early 1990s. And you can break out the numbers by sector (say manufacturing vs services)....but I use the aggregae private sector number for the big picture look.
And it measures rise and fall of employment, the generation and loss of jobs, so you are not looking at the somewhat bogus unemployment statistic, or labor force participation...which might be fuzzier....
...and, based on the trend from past three years, it will take three or four more years for the Ohio private sector economy to reach pre-recession employment levels. However, that level (in Ohio) was mostly stagnant between the 2001 recession and 2007, when employment started to decline into the Great Recession trough...
....there was minimal employment growth in Ohio during the 2000s prior to the Great Recession.
..so the good news is there is an employment recovery going on in Ohio, but how much of this will be erased by the next recession is anyones guess.
I don't think workforce reduction is the issue. The issue we are facing is we aren't seeing much job growth, and the few new jobs created don't pay the bills. Folks working in a traditionally well paying occupation with less competition don't have much exposure to the situation facing the bottom rung, and perhaps the majority of the workforce.
But it was a huge issue from 08-11 or so.
Which is why I think things are getting better/have gotten better
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