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If you look at the gaps between recessions, it all but becomes rather predictable when the next one comes along, and it should be no surprise to anyone, except the youngest workers who haven't been through one before.
I grew up in Mayo-Clinic dominated Rochester and I don't think most people living in that isolated city know how to even spell the word recession. My sister, who lives there, had no comprehension whatsoever what I, and others, went through living in a city like Las Vegas, a city that suffered the most during the last Great Recession!
I can't recall any of my numerous relatives, who still live there, losing their jobs during any recession there.
I went through 3 recessions in Minneapolis, the worst being the 73-54-75 recession, but I was largely unaffected by the other 2, early 80's, early 90's.
So would there even be safer cities to be in during the next recession?
I can't give you a list of names of "safer" cities but I think that your best bet is to weather economic hard times is to live in areas that have diverse economies that have a significant segment of "recession proof" industries/businesses. By "recession proof", I don't mean immune from job losses because of lack of business, but rather the losses aren't catastrophic where the entire business sector implodes. Medicine/health care is obviously one such business, which is why Rochester, MN residents suffered much less than many people in other cities/areas. Cities with a strong base in traditional financial services like accounting,and which might also house back office operations, are probably safer bets than other cities. The presence of a large university or several large/medium size colleges/universities, especially where those institutions dominate smaller metros, provide a largely recession-proof economic base.
At the opposite end of the scale are the cities/areas that depend upon tourism, which is utterly dependent upon people having extra dollars to spend. Tourism is easily the most vulnerable industry in a recession, followed closely by a related industry, entertainment/dining. If you lose your job or fearful of losing your job, which goes first -- medical tests or that trip to Vegas or that night out on the town?
One phenomenon that helped spark the Great Recession was the growth of cities/metros that simply depended upon growth as their economic "engine". I'm thinking of Las Vegas again, but also places like Florida, Phoenix, and Myrtle Beach where an awful lot of jobs were generated by development based on the expectation of a never ending stream of fairly affluent people moving into these areas. When the mortgage crisis hit, the real estate bubble markets crashed, and these areas were economic basket cases.
Another group of cities/areas to avoid if you're worried about weathering a recession is one-industry towns. The perfect example of this is the Dakotas. A couple of years ago, people were flocking there for jobs in the oil industry, and now, they're scrambling to leave if they haven't already left. Houston, TX was this way back in the 1980s when the oil industry went belly-up for several years. It's more diversified today so it's not as bad off with the down turn in oil prices but it's certainly not booming. If you're in Texas, you're probably doing better economically in Dallas, Austin or San Antonio. OTOH, Houston is doing better than Midland and other smaller Texas cities dependent upon the oil industry.
The regions that will do well are the ones with critical mass of new economy jobs and the Universities churning out those people. The usual high housing cost places. Bay Area, NYC tri-state. Boston. DC. Maybe Seattle. Maybe Austin. Maybe Raleigh-Durham.
Mayo Clinic?
Anywhere relying on health care as the dominant part of their economy is in for a rude awakening. Those high income jobs have already seen a significant decline and it's only going to continue. It's kind of inevitable that health care compensation declines to what everywhere else in the first world pays. Medicaid is going to be gutted soon. Medicare is going to be "reformed". Private insurance bases everything on what Medicare covers and pays. Rank & file medical workers like nurses and technicians are going to get slammed. Physician compensation is already down.
Did you fear for your safety during the last recession
In this context, I think "safety" means that the bottom doesn't drop out of the local economy. There's no reason to believe that Vegas or Phoenix or Fort Myers are any more "safe" than in 2009.
DC is the obvious place. Government has virtually unlimited money to keep their jobs going even during economic decline. Government spending to try to create jobs will likely happen during recessions.
Why do you think you should avoid living in areas prone to recession? Your individual financial situation is what really matters. Living in a recession can mean lower costs especially for services.
Anywhere relying on health care as the dominant part of their economy is in for a rude awakening. Those high income jobs have already seen a significant decline and it's only going to continue. It's kind of inevitable that health care compensation declines to what everywhere else in the first world pays. Medicaid is going to be gutted soon. Medicare is going to be "reformed". Private insurance bases everything on what Medicare covers and pays. Rank & file medical workers like nurses and technicians are going to get slammed. Physician compensation is already down.
I totally agree, the clock is ticking, for the health care industry to take a major, overdue hit. And it couldn't come soon enough!
A number of my relatives, from Rochester, MN, work at the Mayo Clinic or their associated hospitals (something like 14,000 people work in these facilities up there) and their smugness, snobbishness is incredible.
Some of my relatives have gone through the entire 30 years at the Mayo Clinic, living off a nice pension. My brother-in-law was one of them, promised free health care from Mayo for the rest of his life, and changes are a-coming. Now! He has to pay $200 a month premiums, plus co-pays!
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