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USA is still the most stable large economy, but... that WILL NOT last 'forever'. maybe 20 yrs, maybe 5 yrs, maybe 200 yrs...
No one is really 'minding the store', and eventually the train will run off the tracks and not be able to be repaired ... "Too Big to get back on track". (And too much divisive leadership, and few educated voters / engaged business centric leaders, only politicians. )
There are those in the world who are 'strategic', and they will eventually pull ahead of USA's great momentum.
So you're saying that sometime in the next couple centuries the US might not be the most stable large economy, and eventually (by the time the sun explodes) those who are strategic will put ahead of USA's great momentum.
Riveting analysis. In other news, someday the LA Clippers might win the NBA championship.
That's nothing but fluff. The Industrial Revolution did not begin in the US, and the living standard in the US was mediocre compared to other developed countries until after WW2. Our "great period" didn't last long though. In the last few decades the US has been losing ground against most developed countries. We are around 27th in median wealth as of 2012:
On the other hand if Buffet is talking to the .01%, then their wealth has skyrocketed in the last 40 years and I suspect that will continue. He still needs to address the challenges that AI will cause to consumer-capitalism, and how those issues will be addressed. If he wants make any sense, that is.
Nice of you to cherry pick. Mean wealth? Sure. Median wealth, we're ranked #5 behind Switzerland, Australia, Norway, and Luxembourg. Two of those countries are banking havens. One of those countries has enormous wealth from oil. And Australia is a largely homogenous country occupying a mostly-empty continent with roughly 7% the United States population.
He's been saying this for a while. His time frame is decades.
Warren probably won't even be alive in decades, I guess he can say whatever he wants about things happening decades from now, since he probably won't be around for people to question him if he's wrong.
Buffett is cheerleading, talking his book. There has been no real, organic growth in the U.S. economy net of debt since the 1980s. Debt expansion is not the same as economic growth via productive means.
As long as people want to move to America and work in America, then I'd agree longstanding growth is possible.
I don't know what the people will do in 30 years, but they'll do something, and if there's more of them dutifully pushing buttons somewhere and getting paid for it, then they'll want to eat, live under a roof, go places and keep themselves entertained.
And, in countries where it's dangerous to have both money and opinions....like Russia and China and the Middle East....finding some way of legitimately moving that money to a country offering freedoms is also going to continue. That money has to flow into investments doing something...
Unless we start making a bunch of rules that would inhibit those freedoms we'll be fine. That's what America is. The place where you can be free in your political, religious, sexual, racial beings and it's ok.
So I agree with Buffett. The only caveat is if we forget that we are a nation of freedom.
I thought it was fairly well-known by now that Buffett thinks the U.S. economy will grow by 2% for the foreseeable future. He's been saying this for a while. His time frame is decades.
The problem here is not with anyone's beliefs, but with the OP's flagrant misuse of words such as "inevitable", "indefinite", and "guaranteed." These are words that Buffett does not use and that no other sane person ever would either.
There has been no real, organic growth in the U.S. economy net of debt since the 1980s. Debt expansion is not the same as economic growth via productive means.
Sounds like more disjointed Paul-speak to me. (Fear the Amero!)
The problem here is not with anyone's beliefs, but with the OP's flagrant misuse of words such as "inevitable", "indefinite", and "guaranteed." These are words that Buffett does not use and that no other sane person ever would either.
I was paraphrasing, but that is in effect what Buffett is saying - America's steady economic growth is virtually unstoppable barring the most extreme circumstances.
He has also pointed out that this has also been the case during at least the 86 years he's been living.
Last edited by BigCityDreamer; 07-09-2017 at 05:37 AM..
I think a nuclear attack may be inevitable at some point.
A nuclear attack could possibly definitely happen. Maybe, certainly.
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