Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 33k in September (unemployment, recession, jobs)

[Irco]

Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 33k in September. That is the first decrease since September of 2010. Furthermore the probability that a recession is on the horizon has increased(see second chart).

[lieqiang]

A recession is always on the horizon, the only question is where is that horizon? It's an easy trade to ply making prediction with a nonspecific time frame. By the way here is you from 2016:

Originally Posted by Irco

Below are a few charts on the Unemployment rate and Initial Claims. The Unemployment ticked up to 5% in September from 4.9% in August. It appears the Unemployment rate is going to start surging higher.

The unemployment rate is 4.2%, so it seems your powers of prognostication via charts is a bit lacking.

[Astral_Weeks]

One month of job losses largely driven by a hurricane in a major metropolitan area does not make a trend.

[mathjak107]

a series of hurricane related drops is not indicative of a thing . nonsense .

consumer spending is very strong .in fact corporate profits have been making new highs . p/e levels are actually falling because profits are higher .

[skeddy]

my economy is doing great and always will because I'm recession proof.

[ohio_peasant]

An impending recession is always in the future. So is a recovery. Every chart can entail a pattern. But not every pattern already has a chart.

My favorite poem - by Alexander Pope:

"Sir, I admit your general rule
That every poet is a fool.
But you yourself may go to show it,
That every fool is not a poet."

[lchoro]

You can't read much into one month of data. The headline numbers are heavily massaged since the raw data exhibits a large amount of fluctuation. The raw figures for gains in jobs were 340K for business survey and over 900K for households.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

With the actual volatility in the data, there shouldn't be as much drama about a mere 10K or 30K variance.