what might happen if oil drops below 30

[floridasandy]

israel bombs hamas and the price of oil goes up. here is an interesting read from june, 2008:
EZ READING MONEY MATTERS: Oil Up Due To Israel War Games


now today's headline: Wall Street took comfort from a rise in oil prices and headed toward a higher open Monday, but investors remained cautious as Israel continued its attack on Gaza for a third day.
Oil rose above $40 a barrel Monday after the conflict between Israel and Gaza's Hamas rulers raised tensions in the Middle East. Light, sweet crude rose $2.84 to $40.55 a barrel in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The advance in oil was welcome for some investors who have worried that plunging prices signaled a long and severe recession.

[calmdude]

OP - oil may temporarily dip below $30, but given the long-term worldwide demand, prices will go back up to maybe $60+/bbl in 2-3 yrs, assuming improved world economy. A war or two will accelerate the process. But, if it does go below $30, there will be very serious repurcussions in Russia and many mid-east countries since the easy money will stop.

[floridasandy]

it is pretty easy to get oil prices to go up and that is by increasing war tension in the middle east. isn't it interesting that we are having increasing tension in the middle east now? i suggest that this is no accident.

[Oildog]

Oil below 30$ for a long time would not be good, as so many countries depend on its production for their social services. I think its unlikely as there are a few countries who are rapidly modernizing and creating a middle class. Diesel fuel and petrochemical consumption will be huge there (BRIC).