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Has anyone ever noticed if things get better (recession wise) during the warmer months? Real Estate usually booms around this time...I wonder what will happen....people are happier around this time of year, I know I am....what do you guys think? Maybe its just wishful thinking....my husband is unemployed so I guess I am just hanging on to any glimmer of hope that things will get better and people will start hiring again...please don't bash me...just thinking out loud.
Most of the forecasts I see (apart from the doom and gloom fanatics that see the end of the world coming) see a recovery starting in 2nd or 3rd qtr 2010. Maybe tempered and slowed by some pretty bad inflation if all Obama's spending wishes are granted. Nothing this summer. As with all recoveries, the last thing to come back will be the jobs.
Most of the forecasts I see (apart from the doom and gloom fanatics that see the end of the world coming) see a recovery starting in 2nd or 3rd qtr 2010. Maybe tempered and slowed by some pretty bad inflation if all Obama's spending wishes are granted. Nothing this summer. As with all recoveries, the last thing to come back will be the jobs.
Remember, those are just "forecasts". A lot of the same forecasters were saying everything was going to pick up the first quarter of 09'. Does it feel like its picking up to you? Me either.
I'm hoping the summer time will bring about more business and help get the economy out of the near depression we are in but I don't see that happening for a long time. We have to first stop losing 500k to 700k jobs every month.
Once the banks stabalize (which we are seeing) and start loaning again, and once companies stop laying people off we will begin to see things get better. Even here in MI. at last weeks business expo in my city, attendance was the same as last year and many companies said they booked quite a bit of business for the year. Also a buddy of mine who was laid off last fall from a company that builds all kinds of machines said he is getting called back in April. They went from an order of 14 machines to 47. And these are LARGE machines so they will be busy for a while. Don't get me wrong, we are a long, long, way from getting there...but if we can string together a whole bunch of little things like this, then things will look much better. I like the thought of spring and summer coming because people will spend more, but will we lose all that momentum come fall and summer?? I think the initial shock and reality of things are beginning to subside. The unemployment numbers are what really sucks.
Remember, those are just "forecasts". A lot of the same forecasters were saying everything was going to pick up the first quarter of 09'. Does it feel like its picking up to you?
I think you're ignoring some signs that things aren't getting any worse, may be bottoming, and could start back up. Consumer spending numbers are much better than expected for Jan & Feb, and the banks are all saying that the worst is over and they made money so far in Q1. If you listen to the technicians talk about the market, they all agree that we could test bottom again, but that all the talk about the DOW at 5K was probably nonsense and that a sustained rally could be in the cards for Q3/Q4.
I'm not saying all is fine and we're out of the woods, but I have not heard anyone talking Q2/3 of 2010. Everything I've heard is pointing to a slow and shallow recovery beginning probably in Q4 2009. Employment always lags the actual start of the recovery by months, so when it starts, we will be in a recovery and not even know it, while still seeing bad unemployment numbers.
The people claiming the end of the world, doom and gloom, and a complete meltdown are just not living in the real world. Could a recovery not take hold until mid-2010....sure, but it will come.
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