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A) the rest of the nation is doing much worse than Texas. Our problems are not limited to just Arizona, Florida, California, and Michigan. They are much more widespread than you seem to acknowedge.
and
B ) you seem to be using anecdotes about BBQ joints and RRE construction in your neighborhood to make a point about the US economy.
Unfortunately, I feel this harsh but dead on. We are fortunate here in Texas, I know there are many parts of the country that are really suffering. I also understand that everything is connected to everything. It may be good here right now, but that can change very rapidly.
But which is closer? I contend the majority of the country, although spending habits have certainly been altered, is more or less intact, much more like Keller.
I guess with your background you understand the difference between "qualitative" (or the quality of how you may feel about something) and "quantitative" (the measurable number)?
Here is a sample of quantitative. Texas. Sales Down. We are heading down, just the rest of the US is ahead of us down the curve.
KRLD - Sales Tax Collections Drop Again (http://www.krld.com/Sales-Tax-Collections-Drop-Again/6349979 - broken link)
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Posted: Friday, 12 February 2010 12:03PM
Sales Tax Collections Drop Again
Sales tax collections drop again in January. Collections were down 14.2 percent compared to January of last year. One problem is January of last year was a record month for collections while this January was obviously a down month. “We expect the declines to continue but the rate of decline to lessen.” Comptroller’s Spokesman RJ DeSilva is hoping that the trend will start upward. “We’re going to pay close attention to see if we see any trend developing in terms of the drops.” He says maybe in the second quarter of the year we might start to see some positive numbers.
I'm bored. Thanks for insulting our tastes in week day cuisine, that was nice.
I guess your overall theme is that if we're not suffering out here, we should be/will be. I'll let everyone know. Thanks.
I have no idea what Humanoid is and in terms of cuisine I just called them restaurants cookie-cutter. If you enjoy them great, but many are still cookie-cutter restaurants. They look the same and serve the same sort of things from coast-to-coast. Regardless, my point was that these sorts of restaurants generally provide a number of coupons and specials.
And no, that is not my overall theme. No person, industry, city or region will suffer equally. I have no idea why you expect the effects of a recession to apply equally over the economy. Yet as time goes by the conditions will become more uniform as the country is economically united.
But if you want to put your head in the sand and pretend like nothing is wrong be my guest.
All I can really figure is that the doom and gloomers live closer to the epicenters.
The epicenters just so happen to be the economic power houses of the country. For example, there is an amazing amount of industry in Los Angeles. Los Angeles alone accounts for 6% of the nations economy, California as a whole around 14%. Economic activity is around 6.5 times greater in Los Angeles than the entire state of Kansas.
NYC and Los Angeles combined make up 15% of the US economy.
The Texan economy is 35% smaller than New York City and just 12% larger than Los Angeles. And Texas is about the only good decent sized economy that is doing "okay" right now, but the general economic problems are starting to wear on the state. The areas that got hammered first where the ones that were most involved in the real estate bubble.
I moved from FTW to Wichita, KS area....and my folks are in Missouri.
What I've seen on all three of those fronts are that things are pretty stable in the middle of the country.....with pockets of horror stories (you see more than you did 10 years ago but really not a huge change overall).
But what we see on the news is that things are seriously bad off on the coasts. It's like localized economic earthquakes. The epicenters are far enough away that you only really see the horror on the news....like Haiti.
All I can really figure is that the doom and gloomers live closer to the epicenters.
I've noticed the same..the two coasts and a few odd states in the middle..mostly late RE boom states like AZ.
The middle of the country states are mostly ag and the folks are fairly conservative and not ultra rich. The business base is in core industries, not these here today, gone tomorrow startups.
I think the demographics, lifestyles and fiscal policies played a huge part in this. I am thankful that I am in Texas at this point in my life but I don't for one minute think I've escaped any of this or that it's all over and we're on our way to lollipops and unicorns.
I think the demographics, lifestyles and fiscal policies played a huge part in this. I am thankful that I am in Texas at this point in my life but I don't for one minute think I've escaped any of this or that it's all over and we're on our way to lollipops and unicorns.
I have to agree with this part of your post. We moved here to Dallas last year from Maryland and the mentality here vs the north east is very different. A lot of people there were really really extending themselves with the housing market. There was a lot...no A TON of keeping up with the joneses there. It's all about how big your house is, or how nice your car is, or how much money you have etc. I'm not naive, I know those people are everywhere but there are a lot less of them here than there.
People here are much more conservative with their money and more family oriented. In general they just seem more content with their lives and their faiths. Nobody buys a home here and thinks of it as an investment, they think of it as a place to live and raise a family and most buy a home they know they can afford vs. buying a home they can't afford and justifying it by saying it's going to continue going up in value.
So I really agree that people are more fiscally conservative here and thats why we have been able to fight of this great recession better than many other states out there. With that said, I know we are fortunate and the problems in the rest of the US can catch up with us as well. In the grand scheme of things we are all connected for better or worse.
Nobody buys a home here and thinks of it as an investment, they think of it as a place to live and raise a family and most buy a home they know they can afford vs. buying a home they can't afford and justifying it by saying it's going to continue going up in value.
I realize you are speaking figuratively, but nobody? C'mon. There are plenty of people in the Texas forum that would suggest a home is a "good investment". Also, I know of investors that are buying up properties in Texas. Both cash-flow investors and flippers.
Anyhow, you are speaking as if the attitudes are night and day. There was a huge building boom in Texas, the prices did not get out of control largely because Texas cities (like some other Southern cities) sprawl. I think the high properties help to reduce speculation in Texas as well. But there clearly was "real estate fever" in Texas. Also, I've been thinking about relocating to Texas for a bit and there are a massive number of McMansions. Not the sort of thing you'd expect for an area that is family oriented and fiscally conservative.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ufcrules1
So I really agree that people are more fiscally conservative here and thats why we have been able to fight of this great recession better than many other states out there.
Have you actually tried to test your hypothesis by looking at other examples? Georgia is conservative, yet its real estate market and economy are getting hammered right now. Colorado is not particularly conservative yet its housing market is holding up pretty well and its unemployment rate is less than Texas. Pennsylvania is rather liberal yet its housing market is holding up and its unemployment rate is on par with Texas. There is no real consistency here.
Seems pretty clear that "being fiscally conservative" is not an important variable here.
Yeah here today gone tomorrow companies like HP, Amazon, Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Apple, Cisco, Ingram Micro, Intel, AMD and so on....
And they add exactly what to the economy?
Amazon? Wasn't that one of those dot coms with a stupid high IPO yet nobody knew how they could make a profit to warrant said IPO price?
Yahoo offers me the oppotunity to hit up Yahoo! Answers and tell some 18-year old that he has no chance to get a $26,000 car loan with $2600 down unless pigs fly, but that doesn't pull me a paycheck. Push comes to shove, they'd be handing their server maintenance over to Indians if need be.
Fly-by-nighters they may not be, but even those computer companies you know outsourcing most of their dirty work and leaving maybe some scarps for high-end brains over here. Maybe.
I"m pretty certain that when I ordered some RAM for my laptop a few months back, while I ordered from a company in Silicon Valley, I can feel pretty confident that the sticks were slapped together in some third-world SE Asian nation.
But, nice to know the thread initial poster didn't learn the dirt behind GDP like everyone else has already...what's the rush? California having (allegedly) the world's 6th or 8th largest GDP and being $40 billion in the red last year with $200 billion in future unfunded debts (maybe that still is the case) sure helped their cause a whole lot.
You are seriously asking what Intel, AMD, Microsoft, Cisco, etc add to the economy? These are the companies that distinguish the US from third world nations, not farming and low and moderately skilled manufacturing done in the heart land.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlfredB1979
Amazon? Wasn't that one of those dot coms with a stupid high IPO yet nobody knew how they could make a profit to warrant said IPO price?
It is now a company with ~$25 billion in revenue and a stock price of around $120. Also, Amazon had a clear idea how it was going to become profitable, but their model was based on slow growth. I believe they became profitable around a year or so after they initially planned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlfredB1979
Fly-by-nighters they may not be, but even those computer companies you know outsourcing most of their dirty work and leaving maybe some scarps for high-end brains over here. Maybe.
They outsource some of their low skill work, all the important engineering work, etc is still done primarily in the US (and in some cases Europe as well).
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlfredB1979
I can feel pretty confident that the sticks were slapped together in some third-world SE Asian nation.
Except that chips on those sticks are based on rather sophisticated manufacturing technology which is entirely automated. As a result there is absolutely no reason to to send billions in equipment to some semi-stable third world country to produce them. The sticks were likely assembled in Taiwan, Korea or China. But there is very little value added in this step, all the value is in the chips.
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