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I think it likely that Gingrich will be the next to experience the "Let's look at this guy before we settle for Romney" surge. Since the PR problems of several months ago (the Greek vacation while advisors were quitting and the Tiffany's silliness), he's managed to run a lean (ie, cheap) and competent campaign, slowly building some initial momentum.
One chronic problem for Gingrich has been that he is undisciplined and liable to say the wrong thing at the wrong time. If he can remain disciplined (a big 'if') he may peak at just the right time (ie, Iowa) and could then be the anti-Romney when it matters most.
Do I think he'll be the nominee? No, but I'd put his odds at higher than Bachmann (who is barely hanging on at this point), Cain (who is revealing that he really doesn't know how to run a campaign, and probably never intended to actually be competitive) and even with the flailing Perry.
He is going to probably make a brief little upswing. It more than likely won't last. The GOP knows he is way too damaged to be the nominee. It's just too risky. I am not even sure they would risk him as a VP pick. I don't some of the younger or less informed voters realize the baggage Newt has.
He is going to probably make a brief little upswing. It more than likely won't last. The GOP knows he is way too damaged to be the nominee. It's just too risky. I am not even sure they would risk him as a VP pick. I don't some of the younger or less informed voters realize the baggage Newt has.
I could see a Perry-Gingrich ticket, as Gingrich's DC history and technocrat/wonkish aspects would nicely balance a DC outsider who is seen more of a generalist than an ideas man.
But as for the more likely scenario of a Romney nomination, Gingrich doesn't match up well at all. I would be very surprised if Romney doesn't feel compelled to pick a Southern evangelical. Someone like Haley Barbour (like him, not necessarily him). And
I could see a Perry-Gingrich ticket, as Gingrich's DC history and technocrat/wonkish aspects would nicely balance a DC outsider who is seen more of a generalist than an ideas man.
But as for the more likely scenario of a Romney nomination, Gingrich doesn't match up well at all. I would be very surprised if Romney doesn't feel compelled to pick a Southern evangelical. Someone like Haley Barbour (like him, not necessarily him). And
Good point: he should balance out the ticket if he gets the nomination. A strong conservative from the south would be the perfect choice.
Every candidate has baggage and Newt Gingrich is no exception. In fact, his baggage is fairly well known, seeing as how he has been in the public eye for so long. Surely you can remember some of the following:
*Reprimanding by the House of Representatives for ethics violations
*1998 mid-term elections, which went so badly for the GOP that Gingrich resigned from Congress the next day
*Impeachment, which was very unpopular (and which contributed to the aforementioned poor performance of the GOP during the 1998 mid-terms)
*His - shall we say, turbulent - marital history
*Certain imprudent statements, such as telling the press that he caused the 1995 government shutdown in retaliation for the perceived slight of being seated towards the back of Air Force One en route to Yitzak Rabin's funeral
I am not saying that these are insurmountable problems for Gingrich in getting the nomination - I'm not saying they aren't, either. But they do exist and they are baggage. Abundant baggage tends to go hand in hand with a long public career.
On the plus side for Gingrich, that long period of scrutiny means his closet has been pretty well scoured for skeletons, unlike some people who have not been looked at so intensely for so many years. So we're less likely to see surprising revelations about Gingrich from here on out, as opposed to the claims currently enveloping the Cain campaign.
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