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I don't know if this is a joke post or not, but how would the GOP pull all the factions together around someone as far on the fringe as Rand Paul? IF we wind up with a brokered convention with a new candidate (very unlikely but anything is possible) they'll work to push someone forward that could unite all the factions. Rand Paul isn't that guy.
My gosh, enough with the brokered convention already, I know that it is just one more hopeful scenario for the Paulinistas, it AINT GONNA HAPPEN!! Anybody know the last time there was a brokered Republican convention ? I believe Thomas Dewey 1948!!!! Fdr was the last President elected as a result of a brokered convention..........fun to talk about, not gonna happen.
Despite all the chest-pounding about "anybody will beat Obama," conservatives are still frantically looking around for an anybody, because each "body" they've considered so far falls short.
Rand Paul, give me a break. Yes, Obama's jaw would drop, in glee, at the prospect of running against him.
It seems inevitable that every election cycle we get to hear from the left what disasterous shape the Republican party is in, I believe in 08 we heard they were finished as a party, in 2010, they were going to lose even more seats, etc,etc.......... Fact of the matter is, Newt is probably going to have to drop out because of money and Conservatives are moving to Santorum, At the end of the day Romney will be the nominee, Santorum will graciously conceed and Romney will pick a Strong Conservative for his running mate.
will there be a point where a brokered convention is inevitable?
what exactly is a brokered convention, and what has happened in the past when this has occurred?
Unlike the general election, the GOP primaries require the winner to win half the delegates. 1,144 out of 2,286.
Right now there is a very strong chance of this thing going to a brokered convention. If the "true conservative" pendulum keeps swinging between Santorum and Gingrich, that alone would be enough. But imagine what happens if Santorum becomes the clear "true conservative" candidate, Gingrich drops out. (I think we all know that ain't gonna happen.)
That still leaves two competing camps against Santorum. An extremely conservative candidate is also extremely unelectable. Anyone realizing that will continue voting for Romney.
Then we have the Ron Paul support. There is only on thing in this race that is 100% certain: Ron Paul will not drop out no matter what. And he's pulling a lot of delegates via strong showings in proportional caucuses and primaries.
So the likelihood that any one candidate can get a majority of the vote isn't looking good right now. If no candidate gets a majority, it could go to a brokered convention aka intense negotiations.
The last brokered convention for the GOP was in 1948 in that year the Republican Part selected Thomas Dewey to run against standing president Harry Truman. Dewey lost in a sorta close election. The Democrats most recent brokered convention happened in 1952, selecting Adlai Stevenson and Stevenson was blown out of the water by Eisenhower.
Brokered conventions are notorious for producing losers. The last time a brokered convention produced a winner in the general election was in 1932 when a brokered convention produced a winner in Franklin D Roosevelt. This should surprise nobody of course since the incumbent Republican President Herbert Hoover oversaw the 1929 stock market crash and found himself blamed for the resulting Great Depression ... but for whatever reason ran for a second term as president anyways. A dead rat could have beaten Mr Hoover at that point.
In order to avoid a brokered convention two of the following three candidates need to drop out of the race: Gingrich, Santorum, Romney. Whichever of those three remains in the race would probably win the nomination. But if the race remains close none of them may be willing to drop out.
Rand Paul has been a Jr. Senator from KY for a little over a year now. That is his sum total of experience in government. Other than that he is a mediocre eye doctor. What in that says....'next president of the United States'?
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