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My prediction is that it will be a very close race between Romney and Santorum, but neither of them will get the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination. Therefore, there will be a brokered convention. Anyway, what do you think of my state by state prediction as well?
My prediction is that it will be a very close race between Romney and Santorum, but neither of them will get the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination. Therefore, there will be a brokered convention. Anyway, what do you think of my state by state prediction as well?
Not a chance Utah is like 60% LDS, and Idaho and Wyoming also have large LDS populations and LDS voters are Romney's strongest base of support he will win all three easily. Then there is Virginia. Romney and Paul are the only ones on the ballot so Romney is almost assured to win there. Additionally Santorum is not on the ballot in Indiana so he will not win there.
Gingrich can't win Virginia he isn't on ballot,Santorum can't win Indiana he isn't on the ballot. I think Paul wins Alaska and possibly Montana and Washington and Idaho and even North Dakota.
Not a chance Utah is like 60% LDS, and Idaho and Wyoming also have large LDS populations and LDS voters are Romney's strongest base of support he will win all three easily. Then there is Virginia. Romney and Paul are the only ones on the ballot so Romney is almost assured to win there. Additionally Santorum is not on the ballot in Indiana so he will not win there.
I may not often agree with you but you certainly do know a little about the various states. of course Utah will go Romney and yes, VA would have a hard time going to a man that isn't on the ballot. Also what is being overlooked is, many states are not winner take all.
Gingrich can't win Virginia he isn't on ballot,Santorum can't win Indiana he isn't on the ballot. I think Paul wins Alaska and possibly Montana and Washington and Idaho and even North Dakota.
you are right about VA, but I would be shocked if Paul won Alaska or Idaho. Idaho is pretty LDS heavy and also many who are not LDS are religious conservatives. They would be inclined to go Santorum, if not Romney. Right now, Pauls best chance is Washington.
Lol...really Bideshi? Personally I would like to see that. Keep all 4 in as long as possible. Better chance of a brokered convention.
and who do you think would be helped by a brokered convention? Do you think the Romney, Gingrich or Santorum delegates will switch to Paul? BTW, just because a candidate heads for a convention without enough delegates to win on the first ballot does not mean it will be a brokered convention
and who do you think would be helped by a brokered convention? BTW, just because a candidate heads for a convention without enough delegates to win on the first ballot does not mean it will be a brokered convention
Nita
Are you sure about this? I thought the candidate needs at least half of all delegates (1,144) in order to avoid a brokered convention.
Santorum did poorly enough last night that the press is all over him as the loser this morning. He will drop enough to lose MI now and then the floodgates will open. Romney is the nominee without a shred of doubt now.
With 3 out of 4 Republicans wanting someone else, Romney was SO beatable this year. What happened?
Last edited by Ponderosa; 02-23-2012 at 07:59 AM..
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