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But, no doubt, Mitt Romney and his supporters will puff themselves up with pride at their ability to win by double digits after completely carpet-bombing a campaign so inept it couldn't even get on the Virginia ballot and an opponent even more gaffe-prone than Romney himself.
It's fun to watch ...
You mean sort of like Obama beat McCain...by outspending him. That is a tired and silly excuse for losing. If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.
Wisconsin will be the most important race in a month. Romney needs to win a Midwestern moderate state where the race between Dems and Repubs could be competitive. He really has yet to do that in any of the major races where he's been pitted against Santorum mano a mano. You have to figure Santorum will win his home state of PA, and he has cut a swath in the south and midwest.
If Romney can defeat Santorum in Wisc., I think that would be the end of the race, regardless of what happens next. It would be a sign that Santorum's appeal to moderates is fading, which I think it is, but has yet to be proven in a race.
However, we've seen this before. Romney moves into a state with a double digit lead that then evaporates in a flash. If Santorum wins it just reinforces the growing perception that he is a weak candidate who can't inspire Republicans to vote for him.
I surely hope this poll is accurate. It seems like Santorum keeps performing better than the polls even when he loses. Romney needs a big win here and a clean sweep on April 3rd so the pressure will build during the 3 weeks until the next contests for Santorum to get out. He better not be staying in hoping for a VP spot offer.
My birthday is April 24th. A great present would be Romney wins in Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island and a surprise win in Pennsylvania. The last one might be too much to ask for, but I think he'll easily get the rest.
Wisconsin will be the most important race in a month. Romney needs to win a Midwestern moderate state where the race between Dems and Repubs could be competitive. He really has yet to do that in any of the major races where he's been pitted against Santorum mano a mano.
Ohio? Ohio is a true swing state and the race was pretty much between Romney and Santorum. Wisconsin really isn't that much of a swing state (at least not in presidential elections). It's not a safe Democratic state, but it's definitely Democratic-leaning.
And he was basically pitted against Newt mano a mano in Florida - another swing state - and won there by a large margin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenfriedbananas
You have to figure Santorum will win his home state of PA, and he has cut a swath in the south and midwest.
Only in the western part of the midwest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenfriedbananas
If Romney can defeat Santorum in Wisc., I think that would be the end of the race, regardless of what happens next. It would be a sign that Santorum's appeal to moderates is fading, which I think it is, but has yet to be proven in a race.
Romney did much better among lower/middle income and tea party voters in Illinois than he did in other states. I think that the Illinois primary was somewhat of a turning point, unless of course Santorum's win in Louisiana gives him some momentum.
Santorum has never done very well with moderates, except in Louisiana and perhaps some of the caucus states.
Nevertheless, I don't think Santorum will drop out even if he loses Wisconsin (and, based on demographics, it's a near certainty that he will).
Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenfriedbananas
However, we've seen this before. Romney moves into a state with a double digit lead that then evaporates in a flash. If Santorum wins it just reinforces the growing perception that he is a weak candidate who can't inspire Republicans to vote for him.
Romney is getting stronger and polling better among Republicans and, as I said earlier, I think the IL primary was a turning point in that he was able to do well among groups he's struggled with in the past.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 03-25-2012 at 03:01 PM..
My home state was smart enough to fire Russ Feingold and go completely red in 2010, so I'm sure they are smart enough to pick Romney over Santorum.
ON WISCONSIN!
They are also smart enough to mount a recall campaign against Scott Walker and similar campaigns that have netted the Democratic Party additional seats in the Wisconsin State Legislature.
I've got the give them credit for realizing they made a mistake.
You mean sort of like Obama beat McCain...by outspending him. That is a tired and silly excuse for losing. If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch.
You have to admit though spending 55-1 is sorta obscene and honestly is unfortunate for Romney to have to use that much capital.
I surely hope this poll is accurate. It seems like Santorum keeps performing better than the polls even when he loses. Romney needs a big win here and a clean sweep on April 3rd so the pressure will build during the 3 weeks until the next contests for Santorum to get out. He better not be staying in hoping for a VP spot offer.
My birthday is April 24th. A great present would be Romney wins in Delaware, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island and a surprise win in Pennsylvania. The last one might be too much to ask for, but I think he'll easily get the rest.
Wait for a Quinnipiac or similiar poll result. I know a lot of people like Rassmussen for whatever reason, but if you ever research the way they do polling (with no calling of cell phones, using computers to ask questions, and not asking for anyone beyond who answers the phone in the household) it creates large error tolerances in the results. Combine that with the "likely voter" methodology that isn't IMO a great starting point (for a lot of reasons), it just starts to become a head scratcher for why they haven't cleaned up their process...
To be fair that 55-1 ratio is as much from Santorum hardly spending anything as it is Romney spending a lot.
True, but if your the front runner with media coverage, why would you not just do a set ratio compared to your main oppoent if it's within reason (say 5 to 1 or 10 to 1). If he only spends $1 dollar, well, spend $10. If its $1 billion, spend $10B (unrealistic but to show a point).
If anything, it seems to be an overuse of assets IMO by Romney.
They are also smart enough to mount a recall campaign against Scott Walker and similar campaigns that have netted the Democratic Party additional seats in the Wisconsin State Legislature.
I've got the give them credit for realizing they made a mistake.
See you in June when Walker destroys Kathleen Falk in the recall.
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