Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Obvious
It is really hard to tell with these things. Looking at history you have George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter.
All the Democrats thought that Bush didn't stand a chance. They selected a career politician/east coast elitist (Bush went to Andover and Yale, but nevermind) and they lost.
All the Republicans thought Clinton was a dead man walking and they select a rather dry establishment candidate and they lost.
People like to point to Jimmy Carter as being analogous to Obama, but that diminishes his opponent, namely Reagan. Who knows what the results would have been if Bush (George HW) had been the nominee instead of Reagan.
This will be an interesting election. I think the big hurdle is for Obama to turn out the youth vote again. I am not sure if he will be able to do it again due to the fact that his campaign isn't as novel as it was the first time. That being said Romney was the least dynamic of the Republican nominees so he might have an enthusiasm gap.
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The difference this time though is that ordinary Americans are feeling the pain. People were all up in arms over the iraq war, but how many citizens are in the military? (it is approx 1%) So, while it was popular to protest against the war, it only directly effected a small segment of Americans. (and, ironically most military members traditionally vote republican)
Now you have an economy that is struggling big-time. Real estate, unemployment, etc. This affects at many Americans.
Bottom line... you mess with people's financial well-being then you are in trouble.