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Old 07-31-2012, 03:23 PM
 
Location: London
1,068 posts, read 2,023,283 times
Reputation: 1023

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Simple question, make of it what you will. How was George. W Bush perceived in America around this stage in the election cycle and what made his margin of victory against Al Gore so contentious and so slim?

Alternatively how does Obama compare 1. In terms of popularity and more importantly 2. Level of opponent

Is Mitt Romney the Al Gore that's going to blow the fertile ground of a deeply shattered economy or has Obama done enough on his own merit to safely secure victory?

Is Obama a clearer favourite than George Bush Jr. was in 2004? And if so is it because of what he has achieved or despite of it? Has Romney got a bigger hurdle to ovdrcome and is this election race as finely poised as George Bush.Jr versus Al Gore in the Presidential race of 2004?
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Old 07-31-2012, 09:08 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,197 posts, read 19,487,286 times
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A little backwards there. Bushed faced gore in 2000, Gore won the PV, but Bush won the EV and hence the Presidency. In 2004, it was against John Kerry.

Anyway to make the comparison against Kerry in the 04 race, things are fairly similar. The approval average according to RCP is almost identical, Obama is currently at 47.4% approve, 47.5% disapprove, Bush was 47.8% approve, 48% disapprove. Kerry held a small 0.3% lead in the polls (taking the average according to RCP), currently Obama holds 1.8% lead.
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Old 08-01-2012, 03:20 AM
 
Location: London
1,068 posts, read 2,023,283 times
Reputation: 1023
Thanks, apologies for the gaff. Yes that was the race I was looking to focus on. Thanks for the clarification. Can't believe the Bush v Gore election was all the way back in 2000. Yes, the Bush v Kerry race was the one that I wan't to draw comparisons with and your statistics have been most helpful in drawing a parrallel, thanks. Very interesting.
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