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Roughly 20% of the electorate are extreme conservatives. They detest Obama more than anybody ever. They dislike Romney because he is not conservative enough for them, but will vote for him anyway. They believe that the solution to America's problems is to nominate extreme conservative candidates, but the Republican establishment believes they will lose elections if they do so.
Another 20% of the electorate are strong conservatives. They detest Obama, and they generally like Romney and will vote for him. Generally, the Republican establishment wants to nominate people in this group.
About 10% of the electorate are pragmatic conservatives. They dislike Obama, are generally ambivalent on Romney, but are worried about the future of the country from both sides. This is the group that is generally considered to be RINOs. Most will probably vote for Romney, although some will vote for Obama.
About 12-13% of the electorate are conservative-leaning moderates. They're yearning for a conservative candidate that can appeal to everyone and isn't pandering to the 20% most conservative people. They generally do not have strong feelings about either Romney nor Obama. Because Obama is generally in the center, most will probably vote for him, although some will vote for Romney. This is generally Blue Dog Democrat territory.
About 12-13% of the electorate are liberal-leaning moderates. They fear the extremist liberal utopia but fear the extremist conservative utopia more. They dislike Romney and generally like Obama. Many Democrats run in this area to maximize the possibility of being elected.
About 15% of the electorate are moderate liberals. They detest what the Republicans stand for now and Romney by proxy, and generally like Obama. The Democratic establishment would like to run candidates here, but often times does not due to a high likelihood of losing.
About 10% of the electorate are extremist liberals. They detest the Republicans more than anyone ever. They generally dislike Obama because he is not liberal enough for them, but some hold out hope. Most people consider them on the fringe and don't pay attention to them.
So basically I think this election is decided by 1) if Romney can pull in (or avoid scaring off) moderates that often lean towards the conservative side, and 2) if the "RINO" types don't abandon their party.
OP, In general I agree. Incumbents don't win when they consistently poll under 50. BHO is hovering around 46-48.
Last minutes vote anti incumbent or refrain from voting. So if we use the 1-2 percent BHO in lead typical now of 48-46, that leaves 6 up for Romey or not voting. If he gets half of them, he'd up 49-48, and if other 3 stay home, prorating the 97 percent out makes it Romney 50.5-49.5.
The focus on polls with an incumbent should be squarely on are they hitting 50 consistently, if at all.
Roughly 20% of the electorate are extreme conservatives. They detest Obama more than anybody ever. They dislike Romney because he is not conservative enough for them, but will vote for him anyway. They believe that the solution to America's problems is to nominate extreme conservative candidates, but the Republican establishment believes they will lose elections if they do so.
Another 20% of the electorate are strong conservatives. They detest Obama, and they generally like Romney and will vote for him. Generally, the Republican establishment wants to nominate people in this group.
About 10% of the electorate are pragmatic conservatives. They dislike Obama, are generally ambivalent on Romney, but are worried about the future of the country from both sides. This is the group that is generally considered to be RINOs. Most will probably vote for Romney, although some will vote for Obama.
About 12-13% of the electorate are conservative-leaning moderates. They're yearning for a conservative candidate that can appeal to everyone and isn't pandering to the 20% most conservative people. They generally do not have strong feelings about either Romney nor Obama. Because Obama is generally in the center, most will probably vote for him, although some will vote for Romney. This is generally Blue Dog Democrat territory.
About 12-13% of the electorate are liberal-leaning moderates. They fear the extremist liberal utopia but fear the extremist conservative utopia more. They dislike Romney and generally like Obama. Many Democrats run in this area to maximize the possibility of being elected.
About 15% of the electorate are moderate liberals. They detest what the Republicans stand for now and Romney by proxy, and generally like Obama. The Democratic establishment would like to run candidates here, but often times does not due to a high likelihood of losing.
About 10% of the electorate are extremist liberals. They detest the Republicans more than anyone ever. They generally dislike Obama because he is not liberal enough for them, but some hold out hope. Most people consider them on the fringe and don't pay attention to them.
So basically I think this election is decided by 1) if Romney can pull in (or avoid scaring off) moderates that often lean towards the conservative side, and 2) if the "RINO" types don't abandon their party.
Thoughts?
You have 63% in the conservative range? The polls, let alone election results, don't support that. Most national elections are within a couple of points of each other between the Rs and Ds--the country is split fairly evenly, with the moderates and independents in the middle falling either slightly center right or center left on a fairly equal basis.
The key to this election will be turnout on the Obama side. I have no doubt that Republicans (RINO or otherwise) will turn out to vote for Romney. On the other hand Obama really needs to turn out Latinos, Blacks and the youth vote. From everything I have heard the undecideds are tiny in this coming election so the partisans will be the ones that determine this election.
The key to this election will be turnout on the Obama side. I have no doubt that Republicans (RINO or otherwise) will turn out to vote for Romney. On the other hand Obama really needs to turn out Latinos, Blacks and the youth vote. From everything I have heard the undecideds are tiny in this coming election so the partisans will be the ones that determine this election.
I agree that turnout will be the key. Polling shows R's with a big enthusiasm edge, but in 2008 GOTV was a major strength for Team Obama.
There is the results from 2010 to consider too. That was a 'good old fashioned shellacking' (as Obama put it), and I don't where Obama and Dems have done anything to turn that around. What are the reasons that the trend of 2010 shouldn't continue in 2012? I can't really see any; in fact I can see where it might intensify in 2012, after the impressive speeches at the convention.
Lastly don't forget the debates. I know lots of people who are not very well-informed yet still tune in to the debates. With a 50-50 election, the debates could turn out to be the deciding factor.
The key to this election will be turnout on the Obama side. I have no doubt that Republicans (RINO or otherwise) will turn out to vote for Romney. On the other hand Obama really needs to turn out Latinos, Blacks and the youth vote. From everything I have heard the undecideds are tiny in this coming election so the partisans will be the ones that determine this election.
Agree.
What has really surprised me is how many Independents who voted for Obama last go round are saying they simply are not voting this time -- or they are doing a protest vote (Ron Paul, for ex). They are essentially just throwing away their vote, thinking it is going to make some kind of statement.
So GOP can't count on those Ind. votes - even if they are disillusioned with Obama.
And the DEMs I know who are fed up with Obama are saying the same thing! They just aren't going to vote - or they are going to do a protest vote!
So it comes down to exactly what you said . . . how many hard core in each party get out to the polls.
I am not just tired of Obama - I think he is inept. But my personal opinion at this point is - he is going to get re-elected. Anything can happen between now and November that could change that - but I just have this sinking feeling he is going to win, b/c his followers are simply rabid. Even if they know the man has failed, they are supporting him. So that tells me all I need to know. People are defending his failed policies with blame shifting (it's GWB's fault!) or with changing the discussion (Romney is rich!) . . . and when folks are willing to do that in light of a candidate's track record . . . you aren't going to change their minds and they are going to turn out at the polls . . .
There is the results from 2010 to consider too. That was a 'good old fashioned shellacking' (as Obama put it), and I don't where Obama and Dems have done anything to turn that around. What are the reasons that the trend of 2010 shouldn't continue in 2012? I can't really see any; in fact I can see where it might intensify in 2012, after the impressive speeches at the convention.
Bill Clinton wisely self-corrected after his '94 shellacking; the present POTUS was not smart enough to follow that path. Had BC not done so, in 96, he LOSES.
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Bill Clinton wisely self-corrected after his '94 shellacking; the present POTUS was not smart enough to follow that path. Had BC not done so, in 96, he LOSES.
