An interesting development:
Republicans pull plug on Mark Sanford - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com
Quote:
National Republicans are pulling the plug on Mark Sanford’s suddenly besieged congressional campaign, POLITICO has learned — a potentially fatal blow to the former South Carolina governor’s dramatic comeback bid.
Blindsided by news that Sanford’s ex-wife has accused him of trespassing and concluding he has no plausible path to victory, the National Republican Congressional Committee has decided not to spend more money on Sanford’s behalf ahead of the May 7 special election.
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So, suppose Sanford loses. Colbert Busch wins the seat. But is she just keeping it warm for the next Republican? Probably. While it may be easier to win as an incumbent than as a challenger or in an open race, all things being equal, all things will not be equal in 2014. For one thing, the GOP will almost certainly manage to put up a better candidate than Sanford. Second, it will be a mid-term with a Democratic President, and such elections tend to benefit the party that does not control the White House. Also, special elections are unusual by nature and don't often say much about future races.
SC-1 has a Cook PVI of R+11. I would think that it won't take much of a national GOP wave at all to sweep any incumbent Democrat out of this seat in the medium-term. That said, it looks like it may well temporarily, at any rate, become a Democratic seat.
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