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This thread is not so much about individuals as it is about the offices held by those with the potential to be major-party Presidential nominees - and those offices that do not otherwise lead to a Presidential nomination.
The modern era of selecting Presidential nominees primarily via 50-state finally took shape in the mid-1970s. Here is a list of all Presidential nominees since that time, with their present/most-recent office held as well as their other major offices previously held.
2012: Obama - President (Senator)
2012: Romney - Governor
2008: Obama - Senator
2008: McCain - Senator (Representative)
2004: Bush - President (Governor)
2004: Kerry - Senator
2000: Bush - Governor
2000: Gore - Vice President (Senator, Representative)
1996: Clinton - President (Governor)
1996: Dole - Senator (Representative)
1992: Clinton - Governor
1992: Bush - President (Vice President, Representative)
1988: Bush - Vice President (Representative)
1988: Dukakis - Governor
1984: Reagan - President (Governor)
1984: Mondale - Vice President (Senator)
1980: Reagan - Governor
1980: Carter - President (Governor)
1976: Carter - Governor
1976: Ford - President (Vice President, Representative)
10 elections, 20 nominees - let's have a look at them by their offices held.
First, we have the Presidents. Four of them (Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama) did not face primary challenges. Such is the political power of the Presidency. GHW Bush faced a minor challenge from Pat Buchanan, who did not win a single caucus or primary. While Carter faced a more formidable challenge from Ted Kennedy, Carter's re-nomination was still never really in doubt. More telling is the situation of President Ford in 1976, who barely kept Ronald Reagan from wresting the nomination away from him. Much of this was because Ford never built up the political base to win the Presidency - he attained the Vice Presidency through appointment and the Presidency through succession. But even given that lack of a base, he was still able to keep the nomination from Reagan. The bottom line is that it is almost impossible to deny the nomination to an incumbent President. Of course, aside from Ford, the rest of the Presidents on the list first had to win the nomination as a non-President. Four of them had served as Governors (GW Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter) and one had served as a Senator (Obama). The other one was GHW Bush, which brings us to the next category.
And that category is the Vice Presidents: Gore, GHW Bush, Mondale and Ford. Since Ford passed through the Vice President entirely in the middle of a Presidential term, his tenure there was not an issue for him in gaining the 1976 nomination. In the other cases, however, we see how useful is the stepping stone of the Vice Presidency. It is debatable whether Walter Mondale, though he was a two-term Senator, might have ever been able to go from that position to being the Democratic nominee. And it is doubtful that Bush could have done so either (though he might have subsequently been elected Senator or Governor after 1980, had Reagan not picked him as a running mate, and used one of those offices as a launching pad to a Presidential nomination). Whether or not Al Gore might ever have won a nomination without being Vice Presidency, he certainly wouldn't have done so in the clean 50-state sweep that he managed over Bill Bradley in the 2000 primaries. This demonstrates how the whim of a Presidential nominee can grant to a politician who otherwise lacks the political chops the base from which to win a Presidential nomination.
While the first two positions above I've discussed imbue a great deal of power on those who hold the post, numerically they produce few potential nominees for the obvious reason that only one person can hold each post at a time, and they usually do so for terms of four or eight years. On the other hand, there are 100 Senators and 50 Governors in the United States at any given time. These are all statewide posts, usually representing millions of people, and are typically fairly diverse, comprising large urban cores, accompanying suburban areas, as well as vast rural swaths. It should be no surprise that those Senators and Governors who win Presidential nominations more often than not represent larger than average states. Given the sheer numbers of the positions, it is likely at any given time that there will be several Senators and Governors who are serious potential contenders for a Presidential nomination. Of the fourteen individuals who have been a major-party nominee since 1976, six have been Senators, two of which served as Vice President before winning a Presidential nomination, and six have been Governors.
The further back we go in time to examine nominees, the less instructive it is to guiding as to how the next nominations will play out for the obvious reason that the more recent a time, the greater the similarity of that time to the present. This is particularly true if we go back before 1976, when party bosses essentially directly selected Presidential nominees. That said, a glance at the major-party Presidential nominees from 1900 to 1972 is interesting and instructive. Here is a breakdown of those nominees by most recent major office:
President (incumbent) - 13 times
Vice President - 3 times (two individuals - Nixon was a nominee in both 1960 and 1968)
Senator - 4 times
Governor - 9 times (seven individuals - Dewey was a nominee in both 1944 and 1948; Stevenson was a nominee in both 1952 and 1956)
That leaves nine nominees from this earlier era that do not conform to the modern trend. Here is a brief description of them:
General - Eisenhower, 1956
Corporate attorney and political activist - Wilkie, 1940
Secretary of Commerce - Hoover, 1928
Ambassador, Representative - Davis, 1924
United States Supreme Court Justice - Hughes, 1916
Secretary of War - Taft, 1908
New York state judge - Parker, 1904
Representative - Bryan, 1908 and 1900 (and previously in 1896 - he lost all three times)
So when the party bosses were tasked with selecting nominees, they still chose from the current posts of President/Vice President/Senator/Governor approximately three times out of four. I am not saying that in this day and age it is inconceivable that there will be a prominent Representative (perhaps a Speaker), or a general or even perhaps a mayor or cabinet member who will be the Presidential nominee. But there is no such candidate on the horizon at present. And those individuals would have to be extraordinary politicians and would probably have to benefit from extraordinary circumstances.
Which brings us back to the present. Who from the above categories fits the bill as a potential 2016 nominee? Well, no Presidents - the living Presidents are all either ineligible for another term, or are old and long since retired from electoral politics. There is a single Vice President, who could perhaps be a nominee in the right circumstances (Joe Biden), and it is worth remembering than he was also a Senator. The remainder plausible candidates - Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, and on down the line - have all served most prominently as either a Governor or a Senator.
The bottom line:
Both the Democrats and Republicans will nominate a current (in 2016) or former Governor or Senator for President in 2016.
Sample size of 20 is too small to make a reliable prediction. The next president will probably be an ex-governor or Senator, but it is not written in stone. Statistically, there is no reason to think that it's impossible that the next president could be an ex-neurosurgeon.
This thread is not so much about individuals as it is about the offices held by those with the potential to be major-party Presidential nominees - and those offices that do not otherwise lead to a Presidential nomination.
The modern era of selecting Presidential nominees primarily via 50-state finally took shape in the mid-1970s. Here is a list of all Presidential nominees since that time, with their present/most-recent office held as well as their other major offices previously held.
2012: Obama - President (Senator)
2012: Romney - Governor
2008: Obama - Senator
2008: McCain - Senator (Representative)
2004: Bush - President (Governor)
2004: Kerry - Senator
2000: Bush - Governor
2000: Gore - Vice President (Senator, Representative)
1996: Clinton - President (Governor)
1996: Dole - Senator (Representative)
1992: Clinton - Governor
1992: Bush - President (Vice President, Representative)
1988: Bush - Vice President (Representative)
1988: Dukakis - Governor
1984: Reagan - President (Governor)
1984: Mondale - Vice President (Senator)
1980: Reagan - Governor
1980: Carter - President (Governor)
1976: Carter - Governor
1976: Ford - President (Vice President, Representative)
10 elections, 20 nominees - let's have a look at them by their offices held.
First, we have the Presidents. Four of them (Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama) did not face primary challenges. Such is the political power of the Presidency. GHW Bush faced a minor challenge from Pat Buchanan, who did not win a single caucus or primary. While Carter faced a more formidable challenge from Ted Kennedy, Carter's re-nomination was still never really in doubt. More telling is the situation of President Ford in 1976, who barely kept Ronald Reagan from wresting the nomination away from him. Much of this was because Ford never built up the political base to win the Presidency - he attained the Vice Presidency through appointment and the Presidency through succession. But even given that lack of a base, he was still able to keep the nomination from Reagan. The bottom line is that it is almost impossible to deny the nomination to an incumbent President. Of course, aside from Ford, the rest of the Presidents on the list first had to win the nomination as a non-President. Four of them had served as Governors (GW Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter) and one had served as a Senator (Obama). The other one was GHW Bush, which brings us to the next category.
And that category is the Vice Presidents: Gore, GHW Bush, Mondale and Ford. Since Ford passed through the Vice President entirely in the middle of a Presidential term, his tenure there was not an issue for him in gaining the 1976 nomination. In the other cases, however, we see how useful is the stepping stone of the Vice Presidency. It is debatable whether Walter Mondale, though he was a two-term Senator, might have ever been able to go from that position to being the Democratic nominee. And it is doubtful that Bush could have done so either (though he might have subsequently been elected Senator or Governor after 1980, had Reagan not picked him as a running mate, and used one of those offices as a launching pad to a Presidential nomination). Whether or not Al Gore might ever have won a nomination without being Vice Presidency, he certainly wouldn't have done so in the clean 50-state sweep that he managed over Bill Bradley in the 2000 primaries. This demonstrates how the whim of a Presidential nominee can grant to a politician who otherwise lacks the political chops the base from which to win a Presidential nomination.
While the first two positions above I've discussed imbue a great deal of power on those who hold the post, numerically they produce few potential nominees for the obvious reason that only one person can hold each post at a time, and they usually do so for terms of four or eight years. On the other hand, there are 100 Senators and 50 Governors in the United States at any given time. These are all statewide posts, usually representing millions of people, and are typically fairly diverse, comprising large urban cores, accompanying suburban areas, as well as vast rural swaths. It should be no surprise that those Senators and Governors who win Presidential nominations more often than not represent larger than average states. Given the sheer numbers of the positions, it is likely at any given time that there will be several Senators and Governors who are serious potential contenders for a Presidential nomination. Of the fourteen individuals who have been a major-party nominee since 1976, six have been Senators, two of which served as Vice President before winning a Presidential nomination, and six have been Governors.
The further back we go in time to examine nominees, the less instructive it is to guiding as to how the next nominations will play out for the obvious reason that the more recent a time, the greater the similarity of that time to the present. This is particularly true if we go back before 1976, when party bosses essentially directly selected Presidential nominees. That said, a glance at the major-party Presidential nominees from 1900 to 1972 is interesting and instructive. Here is a breakdown of those nominees by most recent major office:
President (incumbent) - 13 times
Vice President - 3 times (two individuals - Nixon was a nominee in both 1960 and 1968)
Senator - 4 times
Governor - 9 times (seven individuals - Dewey was a nominee in both 1944 and 1948; Stevenson was a nominee in both 1952 and 1956)
That leaves nine nominees from this earlier era that do not conform to the modern trend. Here is a brief description of them:
General - Eisenhower, 1956
Corporate attorney and political activist - Wilkie, 1940
Secretary of Commerce - Hoover, 1928
Ambassador, Representative - Davis, 1924
United States Supreme Court Justice - Hughes, 1916
Secretary of War - Taft, 1908
New York state judge - Parker, 1904
Representative - Bryan, 1908 and 1900 (and previously in 1896 - he lost all three times)
So when the party bosses were tasked with selecting nominees, they still chose from the current posts of President/Vice President/Senator/Governor approximately three times out of four. I am not saying that in this day and age it is inconceivable that there will be a prominent Representative (perhaps a Speaker), or a general or even perhaps a mayor or cabinet member who will be the Presidential nominee. But there is no such candidate on the horizon at present. And those individuals would have to be extraordinary politicians and would probably have to benefit from extraordinary circumstances.
Which brings us back to the present. Who from the above categories fits the bill as a potential 2016 nominee? Well, no Presidents - the living Presidents are all either ineligible for another term, or are old and long since retired from electoral politics. There is a single Vice President, who could perhaps be a nominee in the right circumstances (Joe Biden), and it is worth remembering than he was also a Senator. The remainder plausible candidates - Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, and on down the line - have all served most prominently as either a Governor or a Senator.
The bottom line:
Both the Democrats and Republicans will nominate a current (in 2016) or former Governor or Senator for President in 2016.
What do you mean Reagan didn't face challengers in the primaries? The second term, you are right, the first you are dead wrong!!!!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz
Sample size of 20 is too small to make a reliable prediction. The next president will probably be an ex-governor or Senator, but it is not written in stone. Statistically, there is no reason to think that it's impossible that the next president could be an ex-neurosurgeon.
Sample size of 20 is too small to make a reliable prediction. The next president will probably be an ex-governor or Senator, but it is not written in stone. Statistically, there is no reason to think that it's impossible that the next president could be an ex-neurosurgeon.
Statistically, it is more probable that you will go gray, become old and die before an ex-neurosurgeon is elected President without any prior political experience. if Carson becomes a Governor or a Senator and then decides to run, then realistic statistics come into play.
Nothing is ever impossible in politics, but some dark horses are so dark they are statistically invisible.
Statistically, it is more probable that you will go gray, become old and die before an ex-neurosurgeon is elected President without any prior political experience. if Carson becomes a Governor or a Senator and then decides to run, then realistic statistics come into play.
Nothing is ever impossible in politics, but some dark horses are so dark they are statistically invisible.
statistically it is 100% that I will go gray, become old, and die. So yeah, you are right. Statistically, who would have guessed that a junior senator whose name rhymes with 'Osama' would have become a 2 term US president?
What do you mean Reagan didn't face challengers in the primaries? The second term, you are right, the first you are dead wrong!!!!
Here's what I wrote: "First, we have the Presidents. Four of them (Reagan, Clinton, GW Bush and Obama) did not face primary challenges."
Since I referred to Reagan when he did not receive a challenger as 'President', and since he wasn't President in 1980 when he had primary opponents, that answer is rather obvious - or, should be obvious (and if it's not obvious to you, and clearly it isn't, that's your fault and not mine). The 'challenger' is also a hint - that word is only used to refer to primary opponents of an incumbent and, again, it should have been obvious to you that in 1980 Ronald Reagan was not an incumbent.
Last edited by Unsettomati; 05-22-2014 at 12:04 PM..
I did a little research into the major party winners of state primaries and caucuses from 1976 to 2012, the modern era of Presidential nominations. (I skipped contests for DC and various territories, just for the sake of my own sanity). Combined, the two parties held precisely 1000 such contests in that time span. Here are some numbers as to who won those contests.
Winner by Office
President - 314 times (7 candidates)
Governor - 271 times (10 candidates)
Senator - 260 times (17 candidates)
Vice President - 112 times (3 candidates)
Representative - 14 times (4 candidates)
Activist - 11 times (1 candidate)
Commentator - 4 times (1 candidate)
Televangelist - 4 times (1 candidate)
Publisher - 2 times (1 candidate)
General - 1 time (1 candidate)
unpledged - 7 times [in these states, unpledged delegates received more votes than any single individual candidate]
A total of 39 individuals are represented above (the numbers differ because some candidates are counted under multiple categories - for example, when Gore won 7 states in 1988 he was a Senator while he was a Vice President when he won 50 states in 2000).
That President was the most numerous primary winner speaks to the power of the Presidency.
That Governor and Senator were second and (a close) third speaks to the combination of the diversity of statewide electorates, and the political skills necessary to win statewide offices, as well as the sheer number of those posts - at least a few of them at any given time are likely to be held by individuals with the chops to win a Presidential nomination.
That Vice President comes in a distant fourth (but still winning twice as many primaries as all the remaining candidates combined) speaks to the fact that there are relatively few Vice Presidents compared to Governors and Senators, that they lack the power of the similarly rare President, but that the position is still a fairly powerful base in its own right.
Of those remaining candidates, the one who won the most primaries - and the only one to win primaries in multiple cycles - was Jesse Jackson. While he was very briefly considered the frontrunner in 1988, in retrospect his political base was far too narrow to carry him through a long primary campaign, and it is telling that even the political lightweight Dukakis easily pulled away from him.
One other is worthy of mention: George H.w. Bush, who in 1980 was merely a Representative. While he won only six states, he did so against the formidable Ronald Reagan. On one hand, this speaks to the fact that Bush was not merely a representative. In his political career he had also served as Ambassador to the United Nations, the equivalent to China (he was liason at a time when the lack of diplomatic relations with the PRC precluded the existence of the post of ambassador), RNC Chairman, and CIA Director. On the other hand, it speaks to the fact that without the patronage of Ronald Reagan, who named him as his running mate as almost an afterthought, Bush likely would not have ever been a Presidential nominee.
The remaining primary winners never had any real plausible paths to their respective nominations.
statistically it is 100% that I will go gray, become old, and die. So yeah, you are right. Statistically, who would have guessed that a junior senator whose name rhymes with 'Osama' would have become a 2 term US president?
How about a guy who just compared abortion with slavery as if slavery were a matter of privacy? You think he has a good shot at the presidency?
p.s. that was a rhetorical question
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