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We can't really say "it's early" anymore because the 2014 election is just three months away. It's hard to imagine Obama's approval rising over 50% (if it rises at all) and it's hard to see how the economy dramatically improves by the time election day is here.
Here is a list of the Senate seats in play this year:
Alaska - Mark Begich (D)
Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R) Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D) Colorado - Mark Udall (D)
Delaware - Chris Coons (D)
Georgia - OPEN REPUBLICAN
Hawaii - Brian Schatz (D) Iowa - OPEN DEMOCRAT
Idaho - Jim Risch (R)
Illinois - Dick Durbin (D)
Kansas - Pat Roberts (R)
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D)
Massachusetts - Ed Markey (D)
Maine - Susan Collins (R) Michigan - OPEN DEMOCRAT Minnesota - Al Franken (D)
Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R) Montana - OPEN DEMOCRAT North Carolina - Kay Hagan (D)
Nebraska - OPEN REPUBLICAN
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen (D)
New Jersey - Cory Booker (D)
New Mexico - Tom Udall (D)
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R)
Oklahoma - OPEN REPUBLICAN Oregon - Jeff Merkley (D)
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D)
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (R)
South Carolina - Tim Scott (R) South Dakota - OPEN DEMOCRAT Mike Rounds (R)
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R)
Texas - John Cornyn (R)
Virginia - Mark Warner (D) West Virginia - OPEN DEMOCRAT Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R)
I don't think any incumbent Republican Senator will lose in 2014. The three open seats previously held by Republicans will be won by Republicans. I've highlighted the pickups in bold, both open seats and Democrat incumbents that I think will lose.
The total is a 12 seat Republican pickup, making for a 57-43 GOP Senate majority from 2014-2016.
I see you are once again afraid to actually make a prediction.
Once again??
I have made quite a few predictions on here and was basically dead on in 2012 with the exception of thinking the GOP would pick up the North Dakota Senate seat.
With that being said, if I were to guess now I would say 3-5 seat gain for the GOP is likely, if I had to make an exact prediciton now I would say 4
I have made quite a few predictions on here and was basically dead on in 2012 with the exception of thinking the GOP would pick up the North Dakota Senate seat.
With that being said, if I were to guess now I would say 3-5 seat gain for the GOP is likely, if I had to make an exact prediciton now I would say 4
West Virginia
South Dakota
Montana
Louisiana
That's the spirit! I think you're low but we will find out.
That's the spirit! I think you're low but we will find out.
More could flip on either side (I do think it is possible for the Dems to pick up Georgia or Kentucky, GOP to pick up Arkansas, and potentially a few others). However, the true toss ups I think will be split between each side.
Some of your predictions I think are bordering on the absurd. Minnesota for one, the GOP isn't seriously contesting. The closest poll has been 6, every other one has Fraken up by double digits. Oregon had the one poll by the GOP polling organization Cheney's daughter founded showing Webey up, but that sticks out like a sore thumb considering every other poll, including the four conducted since showing Merkley up by double digits.
I'll go with rcp, since they have a long-term history of projecting well via aggregating realistic polls. I expect a 6 or 7 GOP pickup, meaning either a 50-50 or 51GOP-49 Dem split.
I voted 6 as I view that as more likely than 7. 4 would not be a total shock, anything above 8 would be shocking, given polling data.
I'll go with rcp, since they have a long-term history of projecting well via aggregating realistic polls. I expect a 6 or 7 GOP pickup, meaning either a 50-50 or 51GOP-49 Dem split.
I voted 6 as I view that as more likely than 7. 4 would not be a total shock, anything above 8 would be shocking, given polling data.
IIRC, a 6 seat gain gives the GOP a +1. I follow Election Projection, at one pint they had the GOP up 7, now it's up 4, I am sticking with that, sadly.
I voted for 4. My number has less to do with the candidates and more to do with guessing voter turnout on Election Day. Talking to all of you guys gives me a false feeling about the voting enthusiasm level. We're so into all of this but those jokers out there, who knows if they'll get off their butts and vote.
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