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Old 10-06-2014, 12:20 AM
 
3,482 posts, read 5,105,099 times
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While it may be premature to start fore casting for the 16 election. Looking at the 270 to win map I cannot see the republicans pulling off a win in 16 because of the state of Virginia.

With the Democrats having one pretty much every statewide race outside of the 2010 republican wave, I would say the state has turned into a solid democratic vote for statewide elections. See this years senate race as an example Warner is up 12 in the latest poll against a well known & financed republican Ed Gillespie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Virginia Senate - Gillespie vs. Warner

With the electoral map of the last two elections Virginia has now replaced Ohio as the must win state for republicans. For the republicans to win in 16 they have to win Virginia or a combo or Colorado/Nevada/New Mexica which are all trending democratic in a huge way. I just do not see this happening, so no matter whether it is Hillary or Elizabeth Warren running I see the democrats holding the white house come 16...
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Old 10-06-2014, 02:48 AM
 
2,769 posts, read 2,494,025 times
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Virginia was one of the closest states in 2012. I don't see why they wouldn't vote for another Republican if he or she were good enough.

*Cue the "But times have changed! Republicans are all evil tea baggers! They will never win the moderate vote again!"
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Old 10-06-2014, 05:11 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,951 posts, read 83,597,281 times
Reputation: 41751
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
While it may be premature to start fore casting for the 16 election. Looking at the 270 to win map I cannot see the republicans pulling off a win in 16 because of the state of Virginia.

With the Democrats having one pretty much every statewide race outside of the 2010 republican wave, I would say the state has turned into a solid democratic vote for statewide elections. See this years senate race as an example Warner is up 12 in the latest poll against a well known & financed republican Ed Gillespie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Virginia Senate - Gillespie vs. Warner

With the electoral map of the last two elections Virginia has now replaced Ohio as the must win state for republicans. For the republicans to win in 16 they have to win Virginia or a combo or Colorado/Nevada/New Mexica which are all trending democratic in a huge way. I just do not see this happening, so no matter whether it is Hillary or Elizabeth Warren running I see the democrats holding the white house come 16...
I find it so interesting seeing the "other side" start talking about 2016 when we are still 4 weeks away from this years election. That tells me you are writing 2014 off for the Dems, right?

Now, for your prediction, basing it on VA. You say, the Dems have won every statewide race since 2010, how many major races have there been? And how close was the 2012 election in VA? If I remember right, certainly close enough, you can't assume VA is Blue. Let's add to that there are many states that would need to swing to the right in order for the Republicans to win, so don't base your prediction on VA. How about Florida, OH, Co. and the Carolinas for starters? Sorry, I just don't buy your reasoning, but you have a right to think the way you do and time will tell. Let's at least see who the candidates are before we start the guessing game. You mention Hillary or Waren, what in the world would make you even think Warren will run? Yes, she might, but she has flatly said "NO" and running against Hillary could very much be death to both.

Who would have thought, even 10 years ago, Ar would be solid red or way back when, who would have dreamed CA. would be blue? It takes many years of constant one party control to predict a state turning completely around.
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Old 10-06-2014, 06:00 AM
 
3,624 posts, read 3,088,677 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I find it so interesting seeing the "other side" start talking about 2016 when we are still 4 weeks away from this years election. That tells me you are writing 2014 off for the Dems, right?

Now, for your prediction, basing it on VA. You say, the Dems have won every statewide race since 2010, how many major races have there been? And how close was the 2012 election in VA? If I remember right, certainly close enough, you can't assume VA is Blue. Let's add to that there are many states that would need to swing to the right in order for the Republicans to win, so don't base your prediction on VA. How about Florida, OH, Co. and the Carolinas for starters? Sorry, I just don't buy your reasoning, but you have a right to think the way you do and time will tell. Let's at least see who the candidates are before we start the guessing game. You mention Hillary or Waren, what in the world would make you even think Warren will run? Yes, she might, but she has flatly said "NO" and running against Hillary could very much be death to both.

Who would have thought, even 10 years ago, Ar would be solid red or way back when, who would have dreamed CA. would be blue? It takes many years of constant one party control to predict a state turning completely around.

Nobody cares about the 2014 elections. Turnout is what, 30 percent?
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Old 10-06-2014, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,951 posts, read 83,597,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gtc08 View Post
Nobody cares about the 2014 elections. Turnout is what, 30 percent?
well I hate to disagree with you, but many do care. If it is only 30% shame on us, but I am guessing that 30% is more to the right than the left, how sad is that for your party? In case you don't know this or have forgotten your government lessons way back when: the government is made up of 3 divisions, one being congress. Without their support the other 2 are meaningless and visa versa. This is why it does make a difference. If some think only the presidential election matters, my heart goes out to them.

btw: I am not sure where you are getting your 30% figure; I just checked, it looks like the turnout in 2010 was more like 41%. That is a huge difference. Maybe google is wrong.

Last edited by nmnita; 10-06-2014 at 07:42 AM..
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Old 10-06-2014, 07:38 AM
 
3,662 posts, read 2,331,829 times
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Like I said before, IF the blue wall was absolutely, positively as insurmountable as the liberal community claims it to be, and in truth it may be so, then the GOP would be stupid, with it's current Presidential bench to keep spending money on the Presidential campaign at the rate they do now. If the Blue Wall is truly what liberals claim it is, it is an outright indicator of how much the American voter can be bought. And with that in mind, for about HALF of what the GOP spends on a Presidential race, they could outright buy the votes needed to secure a veto proof congress. I am dead serious.
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Old 10-06-2014, 09:08 AM
 
8,063 posts, read 3,885,740 times
Reputation: 2452
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
While it may be premature to start fore casting for the 16 election. Looking at the 270 to win map I cannot see the republicans pulling off a win in 16 because of the state of Virginia.

With the Democrats having one pretty much every statewide race outside of the 2010 republican wave, I would say the state has turned into a solid democratic vote for statewide elections. See this years senate race as an example Warner is up 12 in the latest poll against a well known & financed republican Ed Gillespie.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Virginia Senate - Gillespie vs. Warner

With the electoral map of the last two elections Virginia has now replaced Ohio as the must win state for republicans. For the republicans to win in 16 they have to win Virginia or a combo or Colorado/Nevada/New Mexica which are all trending democratic in a huge way. I just do not see this happening, so no matter whether it is Hillary or Elizabeth Warren running I see the democrats holding the white house come 16...
You speaking theory for both sides to pull off a win. If people vote issues and not party the GOP stands a clear chance to win 2016. If voters vote party you may be correct.
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Old 10-06-2014, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Norman, OK
3,479 posts, read 6,346,489 times
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I can see Virginia voting for Republicans in the future. I think that VA is a swing state, which from 2000-2006 you probably would not have said. But, I don't see the state as blue as, say, New York, Massachusetts, or California.
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Old 10-06-2014, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
71,951 posts, read 83,597,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxjay View Post
I can see Virginia voting for Republicans in the future. I think that VA is a swing state, which from 2000-2006 you probably would not have said. But, I don't see the state as blue as, say, New York, Massachusetts, or California.
I too think of it as a swing state: There are not really that many states that are so one side or the other, that they could not be swayed by a candidate that impressed them. Florida, NM, Ohio, IN, IA. there are many that could go either way.
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Old 10-06-2014, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,023 posts, read 15,479,846 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
I too think of it as a swing state: There are not really that many states that are so one side or the other, that they could not be swayed by a candidate that impressed them. Florida, NM, Ohio, IN, IA. there are many that could go either way.

I would pretty much agree on Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Virginia is on the cusp of becoming blue state. Technically still can be considered a swing state, and nowhere near the level of NY, Maryland, etc but is clearly trending Democratic and showing no signs of slowing down.

New Mexico I think at this point is clearly a Democratic leaning state, and Indiana is clearly a Republican leaning state. New Mexico was very close in 2000 and 2004, but has become far more Democratic since then. Indiana, Obama won in 2008, but quickly moved back to the GOP and Romney won it easily in 2012. Seems more like a blip than anything. If either state is won by the other party, the General Election really isn't going to be close anyway.
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