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Turnout. Black people will not (mark my words) show up in the same capacity that they did in 2008 and 2012. Not gonna happen. They were apathetic before Obama, and they will be apathetic after Obama. Hillary has to make up those votes somewhere. Where is she going to get them? Maybe more white democrats will show up, maybe they won't. Maybe more independent's will spring for Hillary, maybe they won't (not looking good for her at this juncture). So, where are all these female votes going to come from that Democrat's believe will propel Hillary to the Presidency? Hispanics are conservative by nature. George W. Bush was successful with the Hispanic vote, so they are not a foregone conclusion. They'd have to come from women crossing party lines if Hillary can't compel Democrats to show up to offset the black vote that will not show up like it did the last two elections. I wouldn't be too optimistic that conservative women are going to vote for Hillary if I were you.
"not only the % of black votes and Latino % will go down with Hillary.....Obama was huge with the young college voters who turned out for him. They are not excited about Hillary and won't go out and vote for her in the numbers they did Obama."
I seem to recall having heard a similar notion voiced in 2012. Comforting as it is, it's not something the GOP should rely on. The reality is that Republicans need to persuade some segment of voters who supported Obama, or in all likelihood, the presidential result isn't going to change.
Bimgo, converting voters wins elections, not turnout. Bases show up, both left and right wing.
The GOP needs to learn to compete where they are uncomfortable being.
What I find incredible is that after seeing the white voter percentage drop for 20 straight years why anyone thinks that Barack Obama is the root of all of their problems and when he passes from the scene the presidential electorate will look like it did decades ago. It might be comforting to some who fear change, but it's incredibly delusional.
The GOP base, and I'm talking the RWNJs in particular, are delusional. I knew many Repubs in Tn who voted for Obama in the 2008 primary (primary in Tn is open to all) because they thought he'd be easier to beat than Hillary. How'd that work out strategically for them?
I seem to recall having heard a similar notion voiced in 2012. Comforting as it is, it's not something the GOP should rely on. The reality is that Republicans need to persuade some segment of voters who supported Obama, or in all likelihood, the presidential result isn't going to change.
I knew Obama was going to win in 2012....its nearly impossible to beat an incumbent President who doesn't have a challenge in the primaries to even the playing field against the challenging party.......look at history. It has never been done.
1980: Reagan beat easily an incumbent President because Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter and weaken him badly. Ted Kennedy never conceded the nomination up until the convention.
1992: Pat Buchanan challenged President Bush in the primaries and Ross Perot a conservative with lots of independent support and money divided the moderate /conservative vote in the general. Without that no way Bill Clinton wins in 1992 and no way we would have heard of Hillary for President now.
Hillary doesn't have the advantage as an incumbent President. She has to campaign in the majority of the states to win the party's nomination even if she doesn't get a real challenge within the party and speaking and explaining her record and positions and answering tough questions in the media are not her strong suit. That's her weakness. She also has to distant herself from Obama because if she doesn't she will look like an old lady running on an Obama 3rd term when Obama's approval is below 49%.
She also needs to be careful how she uses Bill in the campaign trail....too much billie would look like she is riding on the fame of Billie and not her own merits.
The GOP base, and I'm talking the RWNJs in particular, are delusional. I knew many Repubs in Tn who voted for Obama in the 2008 primary (primary in Tn is open to all) because they thought he'd be easier to beat than Hillary. How'd that work out strategically for them?
Obama was the weakest of the 2 early in 2008.....what helped Obama was the market crash of 2008 and the media love affair with Obama....even Oprah was swinging from Obama's nuts..........nobody expected that, not even Hillary and Bill, who was accused of racism of all things......even Hollywood dumped Hillary early and went for Obama.....a lot of that had to do with their hatred towards W Bush and her vote for the Iraq War.....and they wanted be part of making history electing the first black president.
Even w/o the crash, IMO Obama would have won. Dems have 250+ electoral votes 6 straight times, and during that time the white % of total POTUS votes dropped >10%. The crash made 2008 an electoral rout, instead of a modest Obama win.
Now if the GOP had not rejected W's inclusiveness with Latinos this situation they are in would look much better. But W did this pre TP, pre anti-immigrant rhetoric, pre RWNJ rhetoric..a much better GOP atmosphere in a changing nation. It isn't changing back, so it is adapt or cease to be a credible possibility to win POTUS.
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