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Interesting. Let's do the math on that. Presently, Trump has 661 delegates. Here's what's left:
American Samoa - March 22 - 9 delegates - Unbound Arizona - March 22 - 58 delegates - Winner Take All
Utah - March 22 - 40 delegates Proportional
North Dakota - April 1 - 28 delegates Unbound Wisconsin - April 5 - 42 delegates Primary Winner Take All New York - April 19 - 95 delegates Proportional
Connecticut - April 26 - 28 delegates Proportional Delaware - April 26 - 16 delegates Winner Take All Maryland - April 26 - 38 delegates Winner Take All Pennsylvania - April 26 - 71 delegates Winner Take All
Rhode Island - April 26 19 delegates Proportional Indiana May 3 - 57 delegates Winner Take All Nebraska - May 10 - 36 delegates Winner Take All
West Virginia - May 10 - 34 delegates Direct Election
Oregon - May 17 - 28 delegates Proportional
Washington - May 24 - 44 delegates Proportional California - June 7 - 172 delegates Winner Take All Montana - June 7 - 27 delegates Winner Take All New Jersey - June 7 - 51 delegates Winner Take All
New Mexico - June 7 - 24 delegates Proportional South Dakota - June 7 - 29 delegates Winner Take All
Winner take all states skew the numbers massively. That's why I've bolded them.
Okay, Cruz seems to do well in the low population western states, so I could easily see him taking South Dakota, Montana and Nebraska.
Presently, Trump looks to be a lock to win Arizona, California, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey. In his home state of New York, he'll take 40 delegates minimum. That would add 545 delegates for Trump, for a grand total of 1206.
Of course that's completely leaving out delegates from all of the proportional (or similar) states. That's another 245 delegates. Trump is probably going to get way more than one third of them, but just for fun lets say he only gets 94. That would push his tally to 1300 delegates, which would be enough. But let's be realistic here. Of those 245 delegates, Trump will get 150 minimum. End tally: Trump gets 1356 delegates clearing the 1237 needed and he secures the nomination.
It's so funny to watch a bunch of Republicans whining and crying about Trump. Look, I don't want Trump either but it's too late people!!
A lock to win those states? I think not. You are forgetting that the vast majority of the millions of voters Rubio had will now go to Cruz. They certainly aren't going to the man who insulted and degraded Rubio for the last 3 weeks and we all know Kasich has no path. Trump doesn't have a lock on anything.
Designed by our corrupted political system. Why do you think they had 17 candidates to begin with? To splinter the votes and make it virtually impossible for a popular candidate to get the delegates needed. Then they get to pick a candidate they want at the convention. Worked like a charm, didn't it?
A brilliant conspiracy. Though if that were the strategy, they would have stacked the field with quality candidates, not a bunch of yahoos who are endorsing Mr. Trump in exchange for a job.
kasich was the number three man in line. it started with jeb bush, then went to rubio, and now kasich. and then there is romney as a dark horse back up, since i understand that he has filed papers needed to run for president this time around.
the ide early on was that trump would implode and drop out, but when that didnt happen, the republican establishment then tried to force trump out of a third party run by forcing him to sign an agreement to support the ultimate republican nominee. now that trump looks to be thr presumptive republican nominee, they are going to use the rules for the primaries to try and upend trump, and force a brokered convention at which point they can then nominate the person they want to run in the general election, and that might be kasich, it might be jeb bush, it might even be marco rubio.
but if a brokered convention happens, you can bet that it wont be either trump or cruz that gets the nomination.
No way in hell is the Republican Party that stupid. Presently, the math looks very favorable for Trump to lock up the nomination outright. But if he and Cruz both fall short, one of them will be the nominee. The American people would never forgive the GOP for just throwing the popular vote thrown in the garbage. It would destroy the GOP. The voters would never trust them again. Everyone knows this.
At this point, brokered convention talk is just a fancy way of whining about Trump winning this thing. While I cannot comprehend why Trump is winning at all and by a huge margin, the fact of the matter is that he's winning. That's reality.
No way in hell is the Republican Party that stupid. Presently, the math looks very favorable for Trump to lock up the nomination outright. But if he and Cruz both fall short, one of them will be the nominee. The American people would never forgive the GOP for just throwing the popular vote thrown in the garbage. It would destroy the GOP. The voters would never trust them again. Everyone knows this.
At this point, brokered convention talk is just a fancy way of whining about Trump winning this thing. While I cannot comprehend why Trump is winning at all and by a huge margin, the fact of the matter is that he's winning. That's reality.
You dont understand how a contested convention works. Read the link I posted on the last page.
A lock to win those states? I think not. You are forgetting that the vast majority of the millions of voters Rubio had will now go to Cruz. They certainly aren't going to the man who insulted and degraded Rubio for the last 3 weeks and we all know Kasich has no path. Trump doesn't have a lock on anything.
I'm all for Trump losing, believe me. I voted for Cruz yesterday for no other reason than that. But Kasich ain't dropping out, so Kasich and Cruz will continue to split the anti-Trump vote. And it is by no means realistic to presume that Trump will not pick up some of the Rubio faithful. One of the reasons Rubio got a lot of support is because Cruz is an extremist ultra-conservative and people are scared of him. Trump is actually a lot more moderate on the issues. There's a lot of folks who supported Rubio who will never support Cruz. If Kasich drops out, same problem. Ted Cruz is just too Conservative to take all of the Rubio and Kasich supporters. Many will just stay home and not vote for either Cruz or Trump.
I can't understand where all the love for Trump comes from, but it's there.
Can you show me a path to victory for Cruz? I'd be curious to see that.
You dont understand how a contested convention works. Read the link I posted on the last page.
Yes and it's completely irrelevant. Can you name for me the last time that the GOP Convention chose a candidate that wasn't even in the running??Can you name me the last instance where the nominee did not have the most delegates going into the convention?
The bigger problem is that party primaries have evolved. When I was a kid, the primaries were largely ignored by the vast majority of the American people. Today, they get just about the same media attention as the general election. Vastly more people vote in the primaries these days. It's as though the American people just woke up one day and realized that they could all actually be a part of the candidate selection process. Since 2000, the voter turnout at the primaries is way way up. The American people see it as a democratic process at this point and telling them their vote is just garbage -- that's a sure fire way to destroy the GOP.
Yes and it's completely irrelevant. Can you name for me the last time that the GOP Convention chose a candidate that wasn't even in the running??Can you name me the last instance where the nominee did not have the most delegates going into the convention?
The bigger problem is that party primaries have evolved. When I was a kid, the primaries were largely ignored by the vast majority of the American people. Today, they get just about the same media attention as the general election. Vastly more people vote in the primaries these days. It's as though the American people just woke up one day and realized that they could all actually be a part of the candidate selection process. Since 2000, the voter turnout at the primaries is way way up. The American people see it as a democratic process at this point and telling them their vote is just garbage -- that's a sure fire way to destroy the GOP.
Can you name me another Presidential race that featured someone like Trump as the front runner in mid March? I think its safe to say we haven't seen anything like this in history. You really should read the link I posted, Trump is no lock for even the 1st ballot in a contested convention because of the 112 uncommitted delegates and states like PA. They have 71 total delegates but only 17 will enter the convention pledged to a candidate. The other 54 will effectively be up for grabs. They dont just look at the primary results and vote based off that and give it to Trump or Cruz, not how it works.
Winner take all states skew the numbers massively. That's why I've bolded them.
Some of those proportional states are really "winner take most". For example Cruz & Trump were within a couple of 1000 votes of each other. But the way those delegates were awarded, Trump got 44 and Cruz got 10. It was even worse in Illinois that is also "winner take most". Trump got 53 of 69 delegates.
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