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If Mr. Trump gets precisely the policies he says he wants, then the economy will suffer a recession. His most notable economic proposals include higher tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports, requiring over 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. to leave the country, and very large tax cuts that are not paid for and thus result in massively larger deficits and a much higher government debt load. Of course, given this economic reality, Mr. Trump may scale back his plans, and if he didn’t, a wary Congress almost certainly would. But as I say in a recent paper assessing the economic impact of his proposals:
"The upshot of Mr. Trump’s economic policy positions under almost any scenario is that the U.S. economy will be more isolated and diminished."
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