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Party registration can often be a lagging, rather than leading, indicator. As southern states, Florida and North Carolina are home to large numbers of registered Democrats who have nonetheless already been voting Republican for years. The same is true of many working-class, union Democrats in Pennsylvania and Iowa. So are pro-GOP shifts there part of an ongoing long-term cultural realignment or an emerging Trump tsunami?
Examining the trends in these states under a microscope reveals that what’s happening is more a mix of party switching, natural replacement and removal of inactive Democratic voters from the rolls than a feverish Trump effort to expand the electorate. And in the Politico piece mentioned earlier, Ben Schreckinger acknowledges that Democrats have made voter registration gains recently in Arizona, Colorado and Nevada, all formerly GOP-leaning western states with fast-growing Latino populations.
There’s no doubt Trump compelled hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to switch their registrations to Republican to vote for him in closed primaries, accelerating these voters’ exodus from formal Democratic affiliation. But do they constitute a surge of new November voters? Not so much. It’s likely that most of these party switchers were already voting Republican.
538 sums up what I have been saying for months, Trump is only accelerating long term trends. These newly registered Republicans are mainly Democrats who have already been voting Republican in general elections for years. Remember, it's the modern GOP that appeals to their ignorance, lack of education, and fear of minorities/immigrants.
The bad news? These people will be able to influence future GOP primaries and make it harder for the party to pivot towards a platform that takes the realities of the 21st century into account
ummm, obviously not in the primaries if they had to switch. The modern GOPe is doomed and I love it, it needs to be done away with, they are corrupt worthless blowhards.
538 sums up what I have been saying for months, Trump is only accelerating long term trends. These newly registered Republicans are mainly Democrats who have already been voting Republican in general elections for years. Remember, it's the modern GOP that appeals to their ignorance, lack of education, and fear of minorities/immigrants.
The bad news? These people will be able to influence future GOP primaries and make it harder for the party to pivot towards a platform that takes the realities of the 21st century into account
Yup. The closed primaries have a way of stacking the deck to make it look like another ace is on top.
I had to register as a Republican 6 years ago so I could have the choice of voting for one Republican or another in my state and local elections. Most don't have any Democratic opposition here, and I've never voted a straight ticket in my life when I had a 2-party choice.
I know at least a dozen others who were forced into the same choice when the Republican primaries were closed after 90 years of being open.
Another consequence of the closed primary here was the acceleration of the Republican party split, which is as bad it it gets in Idaho.
The GOP passed away in the last two elections, now the Democratic Party is being beat with a stick trying to finish it off since they refused to do the right thing and concentrated on doing the wrong things, again and again and again.
Trump represents the new GOP party and if he goes down, there is no GOP going forward. The people spoke and said it was time for a change. Trump beat out 16 other candidates and the most solid Republican, Bush, never got out of the starting gate.
I think more and more people are getting away from voting for a "party" and are looking at the candidates. Good for Trump, not good for his competition (really no competition at all).
I am in a state that makes you choose either Dem or GOP for the primary. It is very irritating. I have switched a few times. Often I really support a local candidate in a close race where party really isn't in play at all, so I switch based on that one candidate.
I think many did exactly what "Diamond and Silk" were promoting "Ditch and Switch". Time will tell.
So, Republican Party on life support before Trump. If Trump doesn't win, Rep Party dies. Democratic Party needs to be beat with a stick and its dead carcass pulled out of the way for a new emerging party, most likely a modified version of what Bernie was promoting. "Out with the old! In with the new!"
Nigel Farage : "Remember, anything is possible if enough decent people are prepared to stand up against the establishment. You can beat the pollsters, you can beat the commentators, you can beat Washington."
There’s no doubt Trump compelled hundreds of thousands of conservative voters to switch their registrations to Republican to vote for him in closed primaries.
Hundreds of thousands of "conservative voters" were up until this election registered as Democrats? I don't think so.
How can anyone say that with a straight face? Do you also believe Hillary Clinton is the fairy godmother and that she'll sprinkle pixie dust on the country and make it all better?
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