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“With [former Gov.] Gary Johnson polling in some places more than double digits, they might have, some of our production people may have said, ‘Just in case, you need to plan out what that might look like,’” Commission on Presidential Debates co-chair and former Bill Clinton White House Press Secretary Mike McCurry told POLITICO. "We won’t know the number of invitations we extend until mid-September."
They also went on to say
"If someone came in and let's say he was [polling] at 14.5 percent and the margin of error in five polls was 3 points, we are going to have to sit down and look at it," Fahrenkopf said. "But right now that person would not be included."
Johnsons RCP rolling average has been around 8-9%, but to be included in the debate he needs to at 15%, not average, but a total of 5 times. Currently Johnsons highest poll is 13%, but he has hit 12% twice this week and a poll just showed him at 16% in Utah yesterday.
I'm glad to see the debate commission is preparing for Johnson, and I hope he makes it into the debate.
16% in Utah does not matter... Since it's the national polls that are being considered
Yes, sorry I could have made that more clear. It matters because it shows his polls are trending up and that is why the debate commission is preparing a spot for him at the debate.
Yes, sorry I could have made that more clear. It matters because it shows his polls are trending up and that is why the debate commission is preparing a spot for him at the debate.
No they aren't. Johnson has hovered between 7 and 8 points for the last 3 months. It's doubtful that he is going to make up the needed 7 points in the next 6 weeks.
No they aren't. Johnson has hovered between 7 and 8 points for the last 3 months. It's doubtful that he is going to make up the needed 7 points in the next 6 weeks.
yep.
And "breaking double digits" still leaves him 50% below where he needs to be. The standard is 15%, not 10%.
It's not that I think a third party candidate shouldn't be a part of the debates. But the 15% standard has been in place for a while, it's not like it's some last minute attempt to exclude Johnson. If he meets the standard, he's in, and if he doesn't, there shouldn't be an attempt to manipulate things just to include him.
That would be fun, though doubtful. Johnson and Weld have constantly bashed Mr. Trump and taken Hillary's side. I am sure Hillary would love to have them.
No they aren't. Johnson has hovered between 7 and 8 points for the last 3 months. It's doubtful that he is going to make up the needed 7 points in the next 6 weeks.
Again, that's not how it works. His average on RCP does not matter. It's 5 polls have to break 15%. All of his low poll numbers can be thrown out when discussing debate requirements, it's only the top polls that matter. He has hit 12% three times and 13% once in the last month. All four of those polls are in the margin of error of the 15% requirement.
No where did I say he meets the requirements. But 4 polls in the last 3 weeks are in the margin of error on their requirements. I say that is pretty close.
Again, that's not how it works. His average on RCP does not matter. It's 5 polls have to break 15%. All of his low poll numbers can be thrown out when discussing debate requirements, it's only the top polls that matter. He has hit 12% three times and 13% once in the last month. All four of those polls are in the margin of error of the 15% requirement.
No where did I say he meets the requirements. But 4 polls in the last 3 weeks are in the margin of error on their requirements. I say that is pretty close.
Actually, no. They will decide which specific 5 polls to consider, but it's not automatically the 5 polls where Johnson has the highest percentage.
Quote:
Under the 2016 Criteria, in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations’ most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination. The polls to be relied upon will be selected based on the quality of the methodology employed, the reputation of the polling organizations and the frequency of the polling conducted. CPD will identify the selected polling organizations well in advance of the time the criteria are applied.
I hope not, Trump used divide and conquer to win the GOP debates, and wants Johnson on stage to make it 2 righties against Hillary.
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