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Old 09-30-2016, 05:17 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,654,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace Rothstein View Post
You've been here for 8 years and you seriously don't know what FiveThirtyEight is?
Why the derision?

It's nothing more than a blog that makes money by making sports predictions.

It's prediction about Trump was 100% wrong.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:20 PM
 
Location: Home is Where You Park It
23,856 posts, read 13,765,220 times
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I notice that you're back to dissing fivethirtyeight again, now that the polls are showing Trump on a downward trend.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:24 PM
 
Location: Chicago, IL
1,988 posts, read 2,225,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
Why the derision?

It's nothing more than a blog that makes money by making sports predictions.

It's prediction about Trump was 100% wrong.
They predicted Trump's win when taking into account their models. Silver was incorrect that Trump wouldn't win when he decided to do punditry prior to any actual voting taking place. He didn't take into account the low intelligence level of the average Republican voter.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:25 PM
 
234 posts, read 142,584 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jacqueg View Post
I notice that you're back to dissing fivethirtyeight again, now that the polls are showing Trump on a downward trend.
The polls only mattered when Trump was doing better. Now that he's sinking again, it's "liberal bias." Uh-huh...
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:25 PM
 
5,842 posts, read 4,182,960 times
Reputation: 7673
Quote:
Originally Posted by nononsenseguy View Post
What and who is "FiveThirtyEight"?
It's the website I linked to. The author of the article is Nate Silver, a statistician.

They do much more than sports predictions, btw.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:27 PM
 
234 posts, read 142,584 times
Reputation: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost View Post
It's the website I linked to. The author of the article is Nate Silver, a statistician.
And the funny thing is that FiveThirtyEight, if anything, has overpredicted Trump's popularity. He underperformed their model in almost every primary result.

So the idea that FiveThirtyEight is "anti-Trump" is, on its surface, hilarious. Their model actually gives Trump a far better chance than the other competitor models.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:29 PM
 
26,580 posts, read 14,461,486 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post
But I assume that you only look at polls that show Hillary winning.
that would currently be the vast majority.
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:31 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,654,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace Rothstein View Post
....He didn't take into account the low intelligence level of the average Republican voter.
Argument that depends upon castigating 10s of millions that you have never met or know, only speaks to lack of real argument.


Hillary did this too by calling millions of Americans "Deplorable". How can you support such a person for President?
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:32 PM
 
52,430 posts, read 26,654,666 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by wrecking ball View Post
that would currently be the vast majority.
What? In aggregate, they have only called a few 1000 land lines.

Doesn't sound like majority to me. How many people to you know with a land line these days?
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Old 09-30-2016, 05:33 PM
 
234 posts, read 142,584 times
Reputation: 122
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaldoKitty View Post

Hillary did this too by calling millions of Americans "Deplorable". How can you support such a person for President?
She was right. Most Trump voters are deplorable. They're (generally speaking) racists or dummies.
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