***National Presidential Polls*** Part IV (voters, Republican, Clinton, political)
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OK, then - a snapshot. As of today, Nate Silver over at 538 has her up 45.0% to 39.6% - a lead of 5.4 points, with Hillary at 336.4 EV to 201.4. Nowcast is Clinton 87% Trump 13%, polls-only is 81.4% to 18.6% (329.9 EV to 208), and polls-plus is 77.3% to 22.7% (314.1 to 223.8). Larry Sabato has the electoral vote at 348 Clinton, 190 Trump.
That's where we are the tapes were released, or I should say the first tapes. I am very much looking forward to the polls that start coming out in the middle of the week, and especially the end of the week. A lot of polls are set to trigger right after Sunday's debate, so the results of those will have the "grab em by the whatever" comment fully baked in.
...and, because women (as a group) can be counted upon to actually go to the polls--unlike many men who talk a good show and then fail to vote--the impact of the "women's vote" is potentially even more significant than that 20% "edge" implies.
...and, because women (as a group) can be counted upon to actually go to the polls--unlike many men who talk a good show and then fail to vote--the impact of the "women's vote" is potentially even more significant than that 20% "edge" implies.
I look forward to the polls that were taken after the Access Hollywood video was released. That 20 point deficit is going to turn out to be his high water mark among women. I look for that margin to double, and that most of those will be Republican women. Trump can't win if Republican women are abandoning the party en masse.
I look forward to the polls that were taken after the Access Hollywood video was released. That 20 point deficit is going to turn out to be his high water mark among women. I look for that margin to double, and that most of those will be Republican women. Trump can't win if Republican women are abandoning the party en masse.
I doubt the polls will move much at all. Trump's voters don't care. There's some Indies to get so Clinton might pick up a couple states that she otherwise would not have like AZ, GA, UT, or MO. The polls are going to reflect a 5-8 point race like they have since summer.
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