Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I think it's still a bit of a longshot but just the fact the question can be asked without being dismissed out right is pretty impressive of how far the GOP has fallen.
538 had a article about this a couple months ago and said that for the Democrats to win the house Clinton would need to beat Trump by around eight points nationally. Real clear politics has her right now up by 7.2% over Trump.
They will lose seats for sure but not even close enough to actually lose control. Maybe in another 2 or 4 years if they continue their obstructionist ways.
Unfortunately, I think the 538 piece was predicated on what is seemingly a mistaken assumption about the likelihood of straight ticket voting. While I think that the Dems should end up with a Senate majority, Hillary is polling higher than many of the Dem Senate candidates, so I think we may see more vote splitting than anticipated. So probably some pick ups in the House, but not a majority.
I personally know some Republican congressional staffers and they are privately admitting that they will likely lose the House and will definitely lose the Senate. The Republicans were always likely to lose somewhere between 15 and 20 seats regardless of who got the nomination. Even if Bush, Rubio, or Kasich won they would still probably lose at least 15 seats or so. That figure would be around 20 or so with one of the loonies like Cruz, Carson, etc. With Trump it will probably be between 25-30 seats. If they do retain their majority it will almost certainly be in the single digits ... and the House Republican caucus will be almost totally ungovernable as many of the losing seats will have been held by more moderate/mainstream Republican members. There will be nothing but total gridlock.
The House could come in play if the margin of victory between the candidates ends up to be eight points or more. That is not out of the realm of possibility, especially since Clinton is steadily pulling away. A long shot, to be sure, but haven't we all been saying this election is like no other?
I personally know some Republican congressional staffers and they are privately admitting that they will likely lose the House and will definitely lose the Senate. The Republicans were always likely to lose somewhere between 15 and 20 seats regardless of who got the nomination. Even if Bush, Rubio, or Kasich won they would still probably lose at least 15 seats or so. That figure would be around 20 or so with one of the loonies like Cruz, Carson, etc. With Trump it will probably be between 25-30 seats. If they do retain their majority it will almost certainly be in the single digits ... and the House Republican caucus will be almost totally ungovernable as many of the losing seats will have been held by more moderate/mainstream Republican members. There will be nothing but total gridlock.
And if that happens who becomes the minority whip for the GOP? It sure as hell ain't Ryan.
There's a House district next to mine and although I won't vote in it I see the TV ads. The incumbent is a Repub who is a full-blown Trump supporter. The Democrat challenger's ads are devastating, tying all of Trump's controversies to the incumbent, basically calling the incumbent's judgment into question. While that won't sway the loyal Repub voters, the ads will resonate with independents and undecideds. Higher than average Hispanic population doesn't help the incumbent either.
This is a tough one. Unlike the Senate, the House is gerrymandered like there's no tomorrow especially in the states that elected all GOP in their assemblies in 2010. It makes it unlikely that Dems regain the House this cycle. Hillary needs to lay low until 2020. Avoid new wars, don't rile up independents
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Is the house in play?
