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I live in TX and I know a lot of typical GOP voters who simply refuse to vote for Trump. I'm not saying they're all going for Hillary, but many are saying they'll vote for Johnson or just not vote. I know very, very few people who support Trump.
I do think Trump will win the state, but it may only be by a few percent.
Texas is just a terrible state for Trump for many reasons.
First, as much as a lot of the lefties on here think we're a bunch of dumb hicks, our population is pretty urban and we actually have more college-educated white voters than non-college-educated ones, per something I read on Nate Silver's 538 blog by the way. Educated people do not support this man, plain and simple. I know his supporters think they're actually the smart ones, blah, blah, but they aren't. They're angry people who don't know any better.
Also, the Hispanics in Texas lean more Republicans than those in most states, but Trump has gone too far and alienated many of the conservative Hispanics just too much.
There are other reasons, but these are two huge ones. However, this doesn't mean Texas is becoming vastly more favorable to a generic D over a generic R.
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